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jhutch1990

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Dec 1, 2013
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Food for thought from Iowa State’s last 5 games (statistics courtesy of Kenpom):

02/25/15 vs. Baylor: Iowa State has a 90.5% chance of winning up 8 with 8:28 to play and loses 79-70

02/28/15 @Kansas State: Iowa State has a 96.7% chance of winning up 12 with 10:05 to play and loses 70-69

03/02/15 vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma has a 96.7% chance of winning up 20 with 15:09 to play and loses 77-70

03/07/15 @TCU: TCU has a 78.7% chance of winning up 10 late in the first half and loses 89-76

03/12/15 vs. Texas: Texas has a 97.9% chance of winning up 10 with 3:46 to play and loses 69-67

So to sum it up, in 4 of the last 5 games the team with at least a 90.5% chance of winning ended up with the loss. That’s an insane statistical anomaly.
 
To put things in perspective last night's late comeback was slightly more improbable than the Oklahoma comeback.
 
While everyone else is trending towards bore-you-to-sleep basketball we are playing high-octane offense. I really hope we go far in March, just so high level recruits can see our style of play.
 
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Skidoosh said:
While everyone else is trending towards bore-you-to-sleep basketball we are playing high-octane offense. I really hope we go far in March, just so high level recruits can see our style of play.
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Knowing this...I wonder if this will indirectly affect the Selection Committee...AKA, they will want a potential ISU v KU match within the Midwest bracket, or in the potential Final Four....If I had to guess, I would say the committee is pretty confident that UK will go to the end, but I bet they will think ISU may not get out of any of the other 3 brackets...so they will put us in the Midwest to try and get that matchup in the Elite 8 rounds...Conspiracy theory?
 
mcdrier said:
Knowing this...I wonder if this will indirectly affect the Selection Committee...AKA, they will want a potential ISU v KU match within the Midwest bracket, or in the potential Final Four....If I had to guess, I would say the committee is pretty confident that UK will go to the end, but I bet they will think ISU may not get out of any of the other 3 brackets...so they will put us in the Midwest to try and get that matchup in the Elite 8 rounds...Conspiracy theory?
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I'm not sure an early match-up of these teams is really what they want. Honestly, i have no idea, and maybe we will be the weakest team at our seed, but I would think that the only way you look at it, is to give Kentucky the easiest path to the final four as possible. I would think a match-up with ISU is not the best scenario for UK. If there is a B1G team with our same seed, then that's who I would want to play Kentucky. Granted, I'm a homer, but ISU could be a really tough match-up for just about any team. If we come out, are able to play our game and hit our shots, even Kentucky could have a tough time with us.

Basically, in the end, I'm not really sure ISU holds enough real presence yet, to be considered a key must-have match-up with Kentucky. I mean think about it, they had us and Texas on ESPNU last night, while ESPN2 showed that barn burner of Northwestern vs. Indiana. So it seems our style of play isn't really that important to TV.
 
If you want to go back 2 games further Texas and OSU both had 75%+ chances of victory in those 2 road wins as well
 
jhutch1990 said:
03/07/15 @TCU: TCU has a 78.7% chance of winning up 10 late in the first half and loses 89-76

.
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thanks for the summary, but just for clarity, this means TCU had a 78.7% chance of winning when they were up 10 in the first half ??

This service predicts the outcome at any point during a game - am I understanding correctly?
 
Go2Guy said:
thanks for the summary, but just for clarity, this means TCU had a 78.7% chance of winning when they were up 10 in the first half ??

This service predicts the outcome at any point during a game - am I understanding correctly?
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correct. I'm pointing out the extremes on the graph. clone2009 was kind enough to actually post the graphs in a couple posts above.
 
mcdrier said:
Knowing this...I wonder if this will indirectly affect the Selection Committee...AKA, they will want a potential ISU v KU match within the Midwest bracket, or in the potential Final Four....If I had to guess, I would say the committee is pretty confident that UK will go to the end, but I bet they will think ISU may not get out of any of the other 3 brackets...so they will put us in the Midwest to try and get that matchup in the Elite 8 rounds...Conspiracy theory?
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I think people regularly read too much into what the selection committee does. They have their hands full with picking the 68 teams and placing them in their best possible order then placing them in a bracket while following all sorts of bracketing rules and guidelines. I'm pretty sure beyond bracketing rules they really have no time to worry about matchups "everyone wants to see" or what they want the Final Four to look like. Enough of those things take care of themselves or upsets prevent what people expect that it really is no consideration.
 
Where did you guys find this??? At KenPom.com, it looks like everything except his rankings are behind a paywall. :skeptical:

If these probabilities are generated like most of the other guys I'm aware of, they are based on NCAA averages and not the matchup of the two specific teams. With ISU's offense and defense, I feel like most of these percentages are a bit too high. OU and Texas feel right, but Baylor, KSU and TCU all feel like they are giving a little too much credit to the team that's ahead with 8, 10 and 20 minutes left to play.

jhutch1990 said:
Food for thought from Iowa State’s last 5 games (statistics courtesy of Kenpom):

02/25/15 vs. Baylor: Iowa State has a 90.5% chance of winning up 8 with 8:28 to play and loses 79-70

02/28/15 @Kansas State: Iowa State has a 96.7% chance of winning up 12 with 10:05 to play and loses 70-69

03/02/15 vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma has a 96.7% chance of winning up 20 with 15:09 to play and loses 77-70

03/07/15 @TCU: TCU has a 78.7% chance of winning up 10 late in the first half and loses 89-76

03/12/15 vs. Texas: Texas has a 97.9% chance of winning up 10 with 3:46 to play and loses 69-67

So to sum it up, in 4 of the last 5 games the team with at least a 90.5% chance of winning ended up with the loss. That’s an insane statistical anomaly.
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clone2009 said:
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jhutch1990 said:
Food for thought from Iowa State’s last 5 games (statistics courtesy of Kenpom):

02/25/15 vs. Baylor: Iowa State has a 90.5% chance of winning up 8 with 8:28 to play and loses 79-70

02/28/15 @Kansas State: Iowa State has a 96.7% chance of winning up 12 with 10:05 to play and loses 70-69

03/02/15 vs. Oklahoma: Oklahoma has a 96.7% chance of winning up 20 with 15:09 to play and loses 77-70

03/07/15 @TCU: TCU has a 78.7% chance of winning up 10 late in the first half and loses 89-76

03/12/15 vs. Texas: Texas has a 97.9% chance of winning up 10 with 3:46 to play and loses 69-67

So to sum it up, in 4 of the last 5 games the team with at least a 90.5% chance of winning ended up with the loss. That’s an insane statistical anomaly.
Click to expand...

Coffee is for closers.
 
besserheimerphat said:
Where did you guys find this??? At KenPom.com, it looks like everything except his rankings are behind a paywall. :skeptical:

If these probabilities are generated like most of the other guys I'm aware of, they are based on NCAA averages and not the matchup of the two specific teams. With ISU's offense and defense, I feel like most of these percentages are a bit too high. OU and Texas feel right, but Baylor, KSU and TCU all feel like they are giving a little too much credit to the team that's ahead with 8, 10 and 20 minutes left to play.
Click to expand...

It's definitely determined by the two specific teams. It's the same formula that projects the match ups prior to the game. It's a function of time, game location, tempo, offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency
 
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