Kentucky
- Thread starter SAllen43
- Start date
Would be kind of funny if they got bounced in the second round by Witchita St. Unlikely, but funny.
So...if someone was going to give you $1000 for being correct...no loss from you...either win or nothing...and you had these two choices in predicting the NCAA champs: Kentucky or the field...which would you take?
I think I might pick Kentucky! I hope they don't win it...but it would be hard to pick against them at this point!
I think I might pick Kentucky! I hope they don't win it...but it would be hard to pick against them at this point!
I'd actually not pick Kentucky. Obviously they're the favorite right now as they're undefeated and #1, but I believe there are teams out there who can beat them.
I believe there are teams that can beat them too...but they won't play all of them or any of them for that matter. That is what is so great about the NCAA tourney. Kentucky can beat everyone...almost any night. But that doesn't mean they will. And the field (67 or whatever number it is) isn't really 67...it is only the teams they play against and that said...no one in the first two rounds that draw UK stands a chance. So UK "might" only have to face 3 dangerous opponents in the tourney and even then that number might be overstated due to upsets.
I just think I would take UK vs the field. I would love it if they were to lose opening weekend...but it isn't happening.
I think UK has the best shot right now, and I understand and partially agree with your point, but neither one of us can predict the future. The NCAA tournament is also so great because it's so unpredictable.
IF UK was currently beating up on everyone majorly, I'd pick them, but that's not the case in every game. Out of the 10 SEC games they've played this year, they won by less than 10 points in 4 of them and 2 of those included going to OT (including a 2OT game at Texas A&M). They were also only up 5 to Georgia with 2 minutes left a few games ago (they pulled thru with an 11 point win).
IMO they're a good but not great team. They could have the opportunity to be great as they are technically stacked, but they aren't Anthony Davis's team. IMO they are more up and down even though they're winning. One game they win @Alabama by 22 points and then the next game at home only beat currently 13-10 Vandy by 8, which was a 4 point game with 2:30 left. Last night they were only up 2 with under 2 minutes left at a mediocre Florida squad who's 12-11 this year.
They're good, win games but IMO they're a lot more vulnerable than most people think they are.
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H
HGPuck
Guest
About the closest guess I could put on it is that Kentucky has a 30% chance of winning the NCAA tournament. So I would easily take the field. As a comparison I would say Duke, Wisconsin, and Virginia each have ~10% chance of winning it all.
I used TeamRankings bracketology statistics and have always found them to be fairly reasonable when looking at bubble teams or how teams will be seeded/preform in the tournament.
Also the thing that is so great about the tournament is that the best teams are marked and have everything to lose. For many teams, getting to the Sweet 16 would be great. If Kentucky didn't get to the Elite 8 this year it would be a disaster. Not only do they have this pressure, but the other teams they're playing know this. They are able to take greater risks because they have nothing to lose. If UAB is playing Kentucky, nobody is expecting UAB to win. If they lose, nobody is going to truly care so they are able to take greater risks during the game that a team like Kentucky can't even afford to do.
If you are in this situation, you'll see who the real good teams are. The teams that win big when they're supposed to when there's not much room to take risk.
If you are in this situation, you'll see who the real good teams are. The teams that win big when they're supposed to when there's not much room to take risk.
Give me the field.
In my bracket I'll probably take Kentucky to win it all, but when given the choice of either Kentucky or all of the 67 other teams, I'd take the field.
True, but the odds are very good for any given #1 seed still. A #1 seed has won the title in 13 of the last 20 tournaments (17 of the last 25).
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Agree...but the best team entering tourney play wasn't as good as UK is this year...at least on paper.
I'm probably splitting hairs at this point, but how many of those #1 seeds that won were the overall #1 seed?
Okay I think my question has been answered. I too think they could win any conference title but I doubt they would go undefeated. I'm not sold that they will go undefeated this season. I think the clones have as good a chance at the title as anyone. It all depends on which team shows up. When ISU can play on the road like they at Iowa, then I'll feel a little better. I appreciate all the excellent and intelligent basketball talk.
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
HoopsTournament
Well-Known Member
Not sure when they started #1 Overall seeds and they aren't always the same as #1 AP Team, but since the field expanded in 1985, the only teams ranked #1 in the AP poll that have won it were:
1992 Duke (won Regional Finals on last second shot over Kentucky to go to Final Four)
1995 UCLA (won Second Round on last second shot over Missouri)
2001 Duke
2012 Kentucky
My personal opinion about Kentucky this year is that they are the probably the best #1 team that we have seen since UNLV in 1991. The biggest difference between UK and UNLV is that UK is one of the best defensive teams and UNLV was great offensively.
But what both have in common is the lack of a good conference to prepare them. UNLV won the Big West in 1991 with New Mexico State as the only other team going to the tournament. No other team in that conference finished better than .500. The SEC is actually better than that this year, but still fairly weak.
Both teams played in the championship game the year before. UNLV won, UK lost.
What has happened for Kentucky this year is the same thing that happened to UNLV in 1991. When I told people in 1991 that UNLV would not win the tournament, everyone looked at me like I was crazy. I think UK will go into the tournament undefeated and make it to the Final Four, but will not win it. They will come up against an ACC team that is more battle tested like Virginia or Duke and lose. I would bet the field EVERY YEAR if given the choice, even this year.