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ISU Tourney Predictions

How deep will ISU go?

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Well, as a long time Summit and Lady Vols fan, longer than an ISU fan, I have wanted this match-up, just not this year. However, that being said, this is probably our best chance at beating them. I think a 5 seed was generous, frankly.

Other than Strickland, TN struggles to score. As long as we can handle their size, we should be okay. Cain in the middle has extremely slow feet and I think Jos and Nicky should be able to handle her. Their best two players are Strickland and Bjorkuland. Though with Strickland running point, her scoring ability diminishes. Also, Aus and Bolte's size should counter her usual size at guard advantage. I love Angie, but our guards should be able to keep up with her limiting her 3s. She does not do well at making her own shots, she is more of a spot-up shooter, and her 3 has been very unstable this year. Also, TN is not handling the ball well this year and they have been a team of two halves. They have also struggled to guard the 3 at times. I also think their "overplay" defense can play in our favor. The defense can be athletic at times, but this TN is not near as good on defense as previous teams. Some teams have put up over 50 points in a half on TN this year.

I love Pat Summit, but every coach has a weakness. Summit's weakness is that she values size too much, and this year that equates into slow.

So, it should be interesting, at least, and I am very excited for that game. But, East Tennesse is first.

Go clones.
 
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isunorth said:
Agreed. Bill is a great coach and I would LOVE to see our girls beat Tennessee. However, Summit will go down as one of the most successful coaches in any sport at any level. No contest who I want on my bench. Granted, she has been blessed with top-notch talent , but she didn't win 1000+ games by chance.
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Let's face it, she's not blessed with that talent by accident, either. She earned the right to be blessed with that much talent.
 
LeSchmick said:
How can you even compare the two? Don't get me wrong I love Bill and I would be seriously disappointed if he ever left but seriously? Come on man. She is a walking, talking, living piece of history.
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The point was that we have a better team than Tennessee and Bill Fennelly is pretty good at coaching tournaments. I wasn't saying that Bill is a better coach than Pat, I was saying ISU should not expect to lose this game. It will be a tough game, but we can beat them.
 
jaretac said:
The point was that we have a better team than Tennessee and Bill Fennelly is pretty good at coaching tournaments. I wasn't saying that Bill is a better coach than Pat, I was saying ISU should not expect to lose this game. It will be a tough game, but we can beat them.
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What we have going for us is that TN doesn't have near the variety of defensive and offensive schemes as we do.

TN is going to have a tough time to prepare for our defenses and won't have a solid lock on what defense we will run. Junk defenses and zones have been very effective on TN this year. Again, TN has been starting 3 frosh, 1 soph, and 1 senior, or 2 frosh, 2 soph(Smallbone who is slow). Hard for them to recognize various defenses. TN always starts by going to the post, and usually only has one good/one okay 3 shooter on the floor at the time. Bjorkland doesn't penetrate well, except for a quick step around jumper 2.

One key, that will frustrate Summit about ISU, is TN likes to get to the free throw line. TN has gotten a lot of charge calls this season.

I think the toughest match-up will be on Strickland. Getting the ball out of her hands, keeping it out of her hands, is key as well. The 5'2" Brianna Bass guard they run at point at back up is very fast vertically down the court, but in the 1/4 court, she turns the ball over, gets stuck in the paint, and blocked. Stuckey would cause her fits. I have also seen rotation of guards defending on Strickland affect her play negatively. She is great, but a Freshman.

ISU should also do a good job of keeping TN out of transition.

TN will have a hard time guarding 5 perimeter shooters. Wieben and Niz's 3's will matter big in this game. Free throws and bunnies will too.

Their guard play is weak. Their post play is not strong. However, we will need quality minutes from Arlen, Jos, and possibly Ross to stem the tide of big bodies TN will throw through the post.
 
We're going to win vs. E. Tennessee St.... then take out Tennesee... then take out #1 seed Duke, then #2 seed Stanford... then #1 seed overall Uconn, and finally beat Oklahoma for the National Title... This is our year baby!
 
Clonegrad07 said:
We're going to win vs. E. Tennessee St.... then take out Tennesee... then take out #1 seed Duke, then #2 seed Stanford... then #1 seed overall Uconn, and finally beat Oklahoma for the National Title... This is our year baby!
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Easy, Howard Dean. BEYAH! :wink:
 
Stumpy said:
However, there are three reasons that I can identify that are more tangible and reasons I don't think we'll make it through the second round:

  • The Lady Vols have been taking a tumble since January, but their losses have almost all been to solid teams. I know it is similar to our conference strength, but Tennessee doesn't get embarrassed and losses tend to occur on the road and/or to very impressive teams (Oklahoma, Duke, Auburn). The win against Stanford I feel is particularly telling.
You clearly did not see the Lady Vols loss to Auburn in the SEC tournament. They were totally dominated in the second half by Auburn and were embarassed. The home loss to Virginia was also embarassing to them.
  • The injury to Ezell has me cautious. She was able to play against Baylor, but was out of sync and shooting short as the game wore on. Hopefully the week off gives her hand the rest it needs and this will be a nonissue.
Agreed--but remember, Tennessee has done a terrible job defending the three point line this year. Fortunately for them, they haven't played that many teams that can hit the three like The Sisters.
  • The Tennessee faithful will be out en force. They are passionate and travel well. They've only got 155 miles to go from Knoxville, and as much as Iowa State fans care about their team, Tennessee wrote the book when it comes to women's basketball. Iowa State essentially has to go through two rounds of home games (assuming no upsets).
I don't know where this myth of "155 miles from Knoxville to Bowling Green" comes from. Maybe it is if you have a helicopter. But by the interstate its 230 miles. That being said, there will be a lot of Orange in Bowling Green.

The keys to this game will be limiting TN inside, keeping them off the boards and preventing the dribble drive.
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twistedredbird said:
Well, as a long time Summit and Lady Vols fan, longer than an ISU fan, I have wanted this match-up, just not this year. However, that being said, this is probably our best chance at beating them. I think a 5 seed was generous, frankly.

Other than Strickland, TN struggles to score. As long as we can handle their size, we should be okay. Cain in the middle has extremely slow feet and I think Jos and Nicky should be able to handle her. Their best two players are Strickland and Bjorkuland. Though with Strickland running point, her scoring ability diminishes. Also, Aus and Bolte's size should counter her usual size at guard advantage. I love Angie, but our guards should be able to keep up with her limiting her 3s. She does not do well at making her own shots, she is more of a spot-up shooter, and her 3 has been very unstable this year. Also, TN is not handling the ball well this year and they have been a team of two halves. They have also struggled to guard the 3 at times. I also think their "overplay" defense can play in our favor. The defense can be athletic at times, but this TN is not near as good on defense as previous teams. Some teams have put up over 50 points in a half on TN this year.

I love Pat Summit, but every coach has a weakness. Summit's weakness is that she values size too much, and this year that equates into slow.

So, it should be interesting, at least, and I am very excited for that game. But, East Tennesse is first.

Go clones.
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Good breakdown--totally agree. Also, the Lady Vols have not done a good job defending the three...and they haven't faced anyone who looks to shoot the three as much as we do.
 
Tennessee or us?

I don't see us losing in the first round. I don't see Tennessee losing in the first round but it may be more likely than us losing.
 
ISU struggles to score consistently, which means that the defense has to step up and shut down the opponent. ISU has a great defense, but doing that six games in a row is going to be tough.

If you look at the conference losses, it wasn't because the defense failed, it was because the offense failed. If ISU can find a little consistency on offense and make all the layups and chippies, I think they they could make a deep run.
 
A potential match-up against Tennessee in Round 2 is a tough draw. I would rather ISU be the #5 seed and Tennessee the #4 seed. I watched a portion of the Tennessee @ Rutgers game in January when Tennessee was behind 33-13 at halftime and came back to win. Tennessee plays hard when their backs are against the wall and from a pure-talent standpoint they have the edge. All-in-all I'm hoping great defense, good shooting, and our experienced seniors pull us through. Go Cyclones!!!
 
jaretac said:
Tennessee or us?

I don't see us losing in the first round. I don't see Tennessee losing in the first round but it may be more likely than us losing.
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"They" is not us. "We" are us.
And that's as philosophical and literal as I'll get today.
 
jaretac said:
But we are a much better team than the other times. I have them going to the Sweet 16, don't think we will get by Duke.
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You really think we are better then the 2001 team with Welle, Wilson, Cofield, Gahan, Fox, and Junod? They were ranked in the top 10 all season and as high as #2! The 2001-2002 team would destroy this years team. I still hope they do well, but I don't think they have it in them.
 
Cyznutz said:
You really think we are better then the 2001 team with Welle, Wilson, Cofield, Gahan, Fox, and Junod? They were ranked in the top 10 all season and as high as #2!
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Honest answer? We might be. That team beats the pants off of the current team offensively, but there has never been a defensive team at ISU like this one.

The 01-02 team won by outscoring opponents. An offensive slump for them was disastrous. This season? As the saying goes, defense doesn't slump. The game @ Baylor was the only time since the Iowa game that we haven't had a really good chance of winning with a few minutes left in the game. We went about 10 minutes without scoring against Minnesota, but our defense held them to only 10 points in that span and we won easily. We've had big offensive slumps in other games and still come out on top (or at least came back to make it a game).

I seriously think this is the best ISU team since the 00-01 Sweet Sixteen team.

One last point: the NCAA Tournament run doesn't necessarily equal the quality of the team. Was the 99-00 the best team in ISU history because they made the Elite Eight? No. The 00-01 team was better, but they ran into a hot Penn State team that made the Final Four. Were the 06-07 and 07-08 teams just as good as the 01-02 team (all second-round losses)? No. The 01-02 team had a loss to a BYU team that was seeded low but on a tear (they were a 11 seed that beat their 6-seed opponent 90-52 in the first round, and they actually held a 9-point lead on Tennessee in the third round late in the first half before faltering).
 
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