ISU +3.5 vs ND

Saw on the ESPN Bowl Mania show that Greg McElroy took the Cyclones to win. It will be fun to see how many talking heads predict us to beat the whining Irish.
 
Dec 27 Okie State +7 with Tamu
Dec 28 Iowa State +3.5 with ND
Dec 28 OU +13 with LSU
Dec 31 K State +2.5 with Navy
Dec 31 Texas +7.5 with Utah
Jan 1 Baylor +7.5 with UGA
Per CBSSports
One can argue both sides of whether or not this is a good thing.

Assuming just random selection of opponents, there should have been only about a 1.5% chance that every Big 12 team would be matched against a favored team. I guess I would interpret this that the Big 12 is seen as a bunch of teams that can play up to a higher level of competition. After all, the bowl committees want competitive games, not 2 or 3 touchdown differential blowouts.
 
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Dec 27 Okie State +7 with Tamu
Dec 28 Iowa State +3.5 with ND
Dec 28 OU +13 with LSU
Dec 31 K State +2.5 with Navy
Dec 31 Texas +7.5 with Utah
Jan 1 Baylor +7.5 with UGA
Per CBSSports
One can argue both sides of whether or not this is a good thing.

Assuming just random selection of opponents, there should have been only about a 1.5% chance that every Big 12 team would be matched against a favored team. I guess I would interpret this that the Big 12 is seen as a bunch of teams that can play up to a higher level of competition. After all, the bowl committees want competitive games, not 2 or 3 touchdown differential blowouts.
Or it could mean that the bowl games are locked into taking a team from a particular conference and when one team from that conference makes the playoff the bowls have to go a little deeper into the conference to fill the contracted slots.
 
By The Numbers: NotreDame Versus Iowa State
Discussion in 'Under the Dome' started by G_a_r_y, Today at 6:15 AM.



ND-vs-IOWAST.png
 
Not sure if our bowl choices are poor, or is at that our best team slides into the CFP (when maybe they really don't belong there) and that causes everyone else to move up a notch to a higher bowl and thus a tougher opponent?


We had a four-way tie for 3rd (aka 6th) in the Big 12 which is indicative of a balanced league with only two teams that stood out. I have to think that says something to oddsmakers.
 
Looks like two fairly evenly matched teams. The most glaring difference that I see is the turnovers. We better take care of the ball if we expect to win.

Agree. Brock has to be on and definitely can't throw any picks. If Purdy is on the top of his game, I like our chances.
 
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Agree. Brock has to be on and definitely can't throw any picks. If Purdy is on the top of his game, I like our chances.
At the same time, ND's rush defense has not been their strong suit. If ISU can establish the run game and stay out of 3rd and long then they have a chance to force ND to sell out on stopping the run game. This could open up big plays in the passing game against a very stout passing defense.
 
At the same time, ND's rush defense has not been their strong suit. If ISU can establish the run game and stay out of 3rd and long then they have a chance to force ND to sell out on stopping the run game. This could open up big plays in the passing game against a very stout passing defense.

Agree, and like Jay has mentioned, it would be nice to see CMC take some shots vertically. Show ND's vaunted pass defense that it will be a long game for them.
 
I like this game for ISU. Being an underdog in a non-playoff bowl to a storied program like ND should maybe take some of the pressure off. Really as long as we make a respectable showing, we only stand to gain.

Unfortunately for me, I have to visit in-laws on bowl day, so I'm not sure whether I'll get to see it in real time :(
 
By The Numbers: NotreDame Versus Iowa State
Discussion in 'Under the Dome' started by G_a_r_y, Today at 6:15 AM.



ND-vs-IOWAST.png
My two reactions to this were:
1) How do we have 8 picks with all the drops we've had this year?
2) What metric are they using for strength of schedule that has them 7 spots higher than ISU?
For reference, Sagarin has ND's SOS at 38 and ISU at 8th.
 
Looks like two fairly evenly matched teams. The most glaring difference that I see is the turnovers. We better take care of the ball if we expect to win.

I haven't looked but I can't remember Breece fumbling all year, but I could be wrong. And then take away the awful INT's vs Okie State, and I'd say we protect the ball pretty well...
 
I haven't looked but I can't remember Breece fumbling all year, but I could be wrong. And then take away the awful INT's vs Okie State, and I'd say we protect the ball pretty well...
That's good because ND has had a **** load of TOs go their way. Some of that is luck, some of that is capitalizing on your opportunities.
 
Not sure. I found the games, found the lines as well. https://www.betfirm.com/college-bowl-odds/

Last year. So yeah pretty similar with Baylor being the only favorite. Lines were a little bigger.

Oklahoma vs Alabama -14 (Orange Bowl) (CFP)
Texas vs Georgia -10.5 (Sugar Bowl)
Iowa St vs Washington St -4 (Alamo Bowl)
West Virginia vs Syracuse -7 (Camping World Bowl)
Baylor -4.5 vs Vanderbilit (Texas Bowl)
Oklahoma St vs Missouri -8 (Liberty Bowl)

Just thought I would bump this again as it has been annoying me so far in the bowls because E$PN keeps bringing up last year's conference bowl records. Completely ignores the matchups and so all we see is the Big XII at a pedestrian 4-3 near the upper middle of the pack.

But in reality ATS we were 5-1 and outperformed by almost 30 points with two big underdogs winning outright. I'll bet that is better than most any other conference results.

OU - W +3 (lost by 11), Texas - W + 17.5 (won outright), Iowa St - W + 2 (lost by 2), WVU - L - 9 (lost by 16), Baylor - W + 2.5 (won by 7), and OSU - W + 13 (won by 5)
 
Just thought I would bump this again as it has been annoying me so far in the bowls because E$PN keeps bringing up last year's conference bowl records. Completely ignores the matchups and so all we see is the Big XII at a pedestrian 4-3 near the upper middle of the pack.

But in reality ATS we were 5-1 and outperformed by almost 30 points with two big underdogs winning outright. I'll bet that is better than most any other conference results.

OU - W +3 (lost by 11), Texas - W + 17.5 (won outright), Iowa St - W + 2 (lost by 2), WVU - L - 9 (lost by 16), Baylor - W + 2.5 (won by 7), and OSU - W + 13 (won by 5)
Grier not playing in the WVU game really hurt em.
 

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