Is Baylor this year’s version of 2021 Iowa State?

Before the conference season even starts for them they have to play in Provo and that's really tough.
 
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Maybe they’ll be even better than last year and repeat, but I feel like they maybe caught lightning in a bottle last year and are going to have a difficult time repeating.
Will they start the year with someone who can actually punt? If yes, then no they aren’t.
 
Baylor is very well coached, they have an identity of physicality as well. They bullied an SEC in the second half of their bowl game last year. I think they will be very tough.
 
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They will still be a strong team but they did loose a lot. I just don't see them winning the league. Top two RB's gone, Top 2 WR gone, Top LB, & Top 3 DB's gone. That is a the bulk of their production.
 
Lightning in a bottle might be stretching it a bit for Baylor last season. They play tough and tend to do better in those “margins” than we do.

With that said, Bohanon is at USF now (supposedly got beaten out in spring ball), and Smith, Ebner and Thornton all in the pros now too. And their second WR transferred out as well, so that basically means all offensive production from last season must be replaced. 2021 ISU, on the other hand, had all offensive production returning. I will be curious to watch Aranda’s development.
 
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Depends I guess. If Baylor can lose 4 football games the way we did (Iowa, Baylor, OU, Texas Tech) then you go from an 11 win football team to a 7 win team.

This is the other big "warning light" for Baylor. One-score games. One-score games, some of it is "good" but a lot of it is "luck".

Last year Baylor were 4-1 in one-score games (including a 2pt win @home vs ISU, where ISU completely crapped the bed on special teams).

IIRC, ISU was 4-2 in one-score games in 2020, and 2-5 last year. That's the difference between a great season and a good one, for the same team. FWIW, it's one reason for optimism this year for ISU.

I think Baylor will be a very good team, but I don't think they will match last years' 12-2. I would guess 8 or 9 wins, which is great, yet still looks like a big dropoff.
 

I’ve seen them as high as 4 or 5 on some lists. It’s pretty hard for me to put teams other than top of SEC and Clemson that high on a given year lately. Maybe Ohio state. Maybe OU but not every year and def not this year.

And I say that as a fan of Utah’s style of play.
 
This is the other big "warning light" for Baylor. One-score games. One-score games, some of it is "good" but a lot of it is "luck".

Last year Baylor were 4-1 in one-score games (including a 2pt win @home vs ISU, where ISU completely crapped the bed on special teams).

IIRC, ISU was 4-2 in one-score games in 2020, and 2-5 last year. That's the difference between a great season and a good one, for the same team. FWIW, it's one reason for optimism this year for ISU.

I think Baylor will be a very good team, but I don't think they will match last years' 12-2. I would guess 8 or 9 wins, which is great, yet still looks like a big dropoff.
This, and three of those four wins by a TD or less were at home. The other was by a foot or so in the Big 12 championship game where Spencer Sanders threw four interceptions. The bowl win was nice, but Matt Corral got hurt in the first quarter and left the game.
 
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Maybe they’ll be even better than last year and repeat, but I feel like they maybe caught lightning in a bottle last year and are going to have a difficult time repeating.
Yes.

5 road games.

Iowa State didn't lose a Conference home game last year, but lost to Baylor, OU, WVU and Tech on the road. It matters, especially if you play in close games.

They also lose a lot of skill players.

I have them going 8-4.
 
I try to fade Baylor every year and they prove me wrong. In my mind they are the favorites to win the conference and will remain so until I see otherwise.
 
I’ve seen them as high as 4 or 5 on some lists. It’s pretty hard for me to put teams other than top of SEC and Clemson that high on a given year lately. Maybe Ohio state. Maybe OU but not every year and def not this year.

And I say that as a fan of Utah’s style of play.

Utah 2nd half of the season and Cincinatti were the type of energy and 'go get it' ness that I wanted to see out of ISU last season that really never developed.
 

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