Housing market

I would say as long as you are reasonably liquid, so you can comfortably cover your mortgages with reduced income for several months, you should be fine. Anyone not in that position…I would recommend they sell properties until they got there. I recall hearing a lady (I believe from Minnesota) who owned property in Anna Maria, FL freaking out in the first months of Covid because she couldn’t have vacation renters, and it was going to bankrupt her. That person is/was over-leveraged.

And I wouldn’t say this is like 2008, where the average home buyer was getting bad loans that put them in danger of foreclosure. It’s the investors I’m more concerned about. You almost feel like you hear it everywhere you go - real estate is easy money. It’s the easy path to wealth. You’ve got podcasts teaching people how to string themselves out, buying property after property with minimal down payments. It’s all a numbers game. As long as they can rent the homes out X% of the time, they’re golden. I strongly feel it’s about to hit the fan for those people.
Or if they throw a law back on that you can’t evict a non payer and you have to eat 7-12 months of rent.
 
I’d assume it’ll be dependent on where you live. Places like SW Florida, and other southern states will probably have strong housing markets as Boomers retire and look for warmer climates. My parents moved from Illinois to Texas for retirement as an example.

But younger people may be turned off by the “higher” interest rates because they’ve been accustomed to rates being below 4%. Additionally, if more companies embrace remote work, it’ll allow some in the younger crowd to maybe move to more affordable locations. So having the extra cash from less student loans will probably be a benefit to those who are in an area to take advantage of it, while others may not.
There is also lots of companies buying homes and getting into a rental market.

In LA cash offers abound, and its from companies that will rent, and not flip the home.
 
That's still better than in 2008 if for no other reason than the quality of loans out there is a lot better. Some of the products that were rampant back then like interest only or negative amortization were primed for failure, and then there were much less stringent requirements on lending criteria at some lenders, so while you can't prevent sudden income loss from being an issue, a lot more people were a lot closer to the edge back then because they probably would not have been approved in the first place under more stringent qualification rules.

This

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How about junk corporate borrowing since the GFC?

Now overlay subprime auto loans over mortgage debt since the GFC

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Americans are carrying about the same amount of mortgage debt as pre-GFC with non mortgage debt increasing at an unsustainable rate.

1655133892073.png

Over half the country lives paycheck to paycheck because we are addicted to low interest financing. We finance furniture, cell phones, cars, homes, appliances, electronics, and so much more
 

I tell this story all of the time. Probably even in this thread.

I was managing and a loan came across my desk. 80-20 purchase for almost $700k. Borrower had one trade line for $350 credit line. No mortgage pay history.

Income was inflated and supported with a reference letter only. No income docs. No asset docs needed since they had no skin in the game.
I said this didn't make a damn bit of sense and you'd think I took a dump at the church door. A total **** storm.

Today is (currently) not close to those days.
 
How about junk corporate borrowing since the GFC?

Now overlay subprime auto loans over mortgage debt since the GFC

View attachment 99637

Americans are carrying about the same amount of mortgage debt as pre-GFC with non mortgage debt increasing at an unsustainable rate.

View attachment 99639

Over half the country lives paycheck to paycheck because we are addicted to low interest financing. We finance furniture, cell phones, cars, homes, appliances, electronics, and so much more
There’s always going to be people who refuse to live within their means. The good news is if you’re really feeling the inflation currently and have a car loan you can’t swing anymore then you most likely can get your money out of it with the shortage of inventory.
 
There’s always going to be people who refuse to live within their means. The good news is if you’re really feeling the inflation currently and have a car loan you can’t swing anymore then you most likely can get your money out of it with the shortage of inventory.

For a newer/low mileage car, i agree.

Not for the 10 year old Suburban with 150K+ miles with 3+ years of loan remaining
 
For a newer/low mileage car, i agree.

Not for the 10 year old Suburban with 150K+ miles with 3+ years of loan remaining
I mean some people just aren’t good with money and have to learn the hard way, but it’s still much better than being way over your head on a $300,000 house.
 
For a newer/low mileage car, i agree.

Not for the 10 year old Suburban with 150K+ miles with 3+ years of loan remaining

That's why we always pay for cars with cash here on CF.

Is it an Iowa thing to be concerned about people living within their means? Seems every financial topic has a grip of posters concerned about the guy down the street
 
That's why we always pay for cars with cash here on CF.

Is it an Iowa thing to be concerned about people living within their means? Seems every financial topic has a grip of posters concerned about the guy down the street

Poster 1: I have zero debt! I pay cash for everything! I AM THE DREAM!!!!

Poster 2: what kind of car do you have and what kind of house do you have?

Poster 1: used 2007 Town & Country and I bought the house I grew up in from my parents.

Poster 2: cool, what’s your household income?

Poster 1: 75k and my wife doesn’t work. What about you, Poster 2?

Poster 2: 2022 X7, 750k house in the burbs with a pool.

Poster 1: you must be so in debt doesn’t that feel terrible?

Poster 2: We have a two income household of 425k. Car payment is $700 and house payment is 5k, could pay it off anytime we feel like it but don’t want to take any money out of investments and don’t want to touch th $200k in the savings accounts.

I know which Poster I wish I was! (The one sitting by the pool right now).
 
30 year fixed has crossed 6%.
Quarter million loan with 20% down is up hundreds of dollars a month just since start of the year. It accelerates rapidly every 50K more. And the long term interest cost, don't look.
 
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30 year fixed has crossed 6%.
Quarter million loan with 20% down is up hundreds of dollars a month just since start of the year. It accelerates rapidly every 50K more. And the long term interest cost, don't look.

That’s kind of the point of raising interest rates right?
 
Poster 1: I have zero debt! I pay cash for everything! I AM THE DREAM!!!!

Poster 2: what kind of car do you have and what kind of house do you have?

Poster 1: used 2007 Town & Country and I bought the house I grew up in from my parents.

Poster 2: cool, what’s your household income?

Poster 1: 75k and my wife doesn’t work. What about you, Poster 2?

Poster 2: 2022 X7, 750k house in the burbs with a pool.

Poster 1: you must be so in debt doesn’t that feel terrible?

Poster 2: We have a two income household of 425k. Car payment is $700 and house payment is 5k, could pay it off anytime we feel like it but don’t want to take any money out of investments and don’t want to touch th $200k in the savings accounts.

I know which Poster I wish I was! (The one sitting by the pool right now).

Only $425,000 a year?

Those are rookie numbers.

Gotta get those numbers up.
 
I need some math help from the finance gurus on here. I have a co-worker who is currently financing stuff left and right. His whole "theory" is that the dollar is going to crash in value. So, if you finance something today, but pay it off over 5 years, you're buying it in today's dollars but paying it off with "less valuable money."

I know he's wrong, but I could sure use some math to back me up. Let's say he financed $12,000 in new windows (which he did). If that's on a 5 year note, what's he "saving," like $80? (Assuming his theory is correct).
 
I need some math help from the finance gurus on here. I have a co-worker who is currently financing stuff left and right. His whole "theory" is that the dollar is going to crash in value. So, if you finance something today, but pay it off over 5 years, you're buying it in today's dollars but paying it off with "less valuable money."

I know he's wrong, but I could sure use some math to back me up. Let's say he financed $12,000 in new windows (which he did). If that's on a 5 year note, what's he "saving," like $80? (Assuming his theory is correct).
if it crashed its more than $80. but all of that so save somewhere around $80 isn't shuffling a full deck.
 
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I need some math help from the finance gurus on here. I have a co-worker who is currently financing stuff left and right. His whole "theory" is that the dollar is going to crash in value. So, if you finance something today, but pay it off over 5 years, you're buying it in today's dollars but paying it off with "less valuable money."

I know he's wrong, but I could sure use some math to back me up. Let's say he financed $12,000 in new windows (which he did). If that's on a 5 year note, what's he "saving," like $80? (Assuming his theory is correct).

$12,000 times whatever he thinks the negative real interest rate will be for five years.
 
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if it crashed its more than $80. but all of that so save somewhere around $80 isn't shuffling a full deck.
Yes, this is my point. In my head I say "man, I know you're so wrong about this, but I don't know the math the back it up."

Also, I didn't mention he's financed like 3 different house projects AND keeps buying big power tools because "those will hold their value better than the dollar."
 
Yes, this is my point. In my head I say "man, I know you're so wrong about this, but I don't know the math the back it up."

Also, I didn't mention he's financed like 3 different house projects AND keeps buying big power tools because "those will hold their value better than the dollar."

I would be keeping an eye on his Facebook in about 6 months. Might be some good deals on tools lol.
 

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