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Glass-half-full look at our schedule

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BobTheHawkHater

Active Member
Jan 21, 2008
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I guess I'm more of a realist than a lot of people on here, but after thinking about out results so far, I guess I'm not as alarmed as I was a few days ago. We lost most of our scorers from last year. We had 2 NBA-level talents leave rather unexpectedly (THT, Wigginton) and our recruiting class and transfers weren't as good as we'd like. Was it hard for Prohm to recruit top caliber guards in November of 2018 when the recruits were thinking they'd be sitting behind Wigginton, THT and Haliburton? Maybe.

What were the expectations for this year given the attrition we had. I felt all summer and fall that this would be a down year similar to Hoibergs year 1. Lot's of close losses and a few bad losses.

Consider that there are 3 tiers of Big 12 teams:
  • Tier 1 = Teams you're going to lose to home and away -- Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia.
  • Tier 2 = Teams you should beat at home, but likely lose to on the read because Big 12 road wins are hard to come by -- Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU.
  • Tier 3 = Teams you should beat home and away -- Kansas State, Oklahoma State.
Using this criteria, here's our schedule color coded with green for wins against tough teams that I didn't think we'd beat, red for unexpected/bad losses, black for results I expected if I'm being honest about this year's team.

Win Home Miss Valley St
Loss Away Oregon St.
Win Home N. Illinois
Win Home So. Miss
Loss Nuet Michigan
Win Nuet Alabama
Loss Nuet Seton Hall
Win Home UMKC
Win Home Seton Hall
Loss Home Iowa
Win Home Purdue FW
Loss Home Florida A&M
Loss Away TCU
Loss Home Kansas
Win Home Oklahoma
Loss Away Baylor
Loss Away Texas Tech
Win Home Oklahoma St.
Loss Away Auburn
Loss Home Baylor
Loss Away Texas
Loss Away W. Virginia
Win? Home Kansas St.
Loss? Away Oklahoma
Win? Home Texas
Loss? Away Kansas
Win? Home Texas Tech
Win? Home TCU
Win? Away Oklahoma St.
Loss? Home W. Virginia
Win? Away Kansas St. ​

Minus the catastrophe with Florida A&M, I feel like we're doing maybe a bit better than I expected due to a couple of early season good wins. Hopefully we finish 6-3 and finish in the middle of the Big 12 as I expected.
 
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I would agree the final 9 games will bring a bit of a reality check to where our program stands going into 20/21. If we can finish up 4-5, I thing that can temper the SKY IS FALLING attitude.

I would expect us to beat K-State, Texas & TCU at Hilton. I would hope we can win a road game at K-State, OU or OSU.

My optimism for the program and next season would grow with a home win over Tech or WVU.
 
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BobTheHawkHater said:
I guess I'm more of a realist than a lot of people on here, but after thinking about out results so far, I guess I'm not as alarmed as I was a few days ago. We lost most of our scorers from last year. We had 2 NBA-level talents leave rather unexpectedly (THT, Wigginton) and our recruiting class and transfers weren't as good as we'd like. Was it hard for Prohm to recruit top caliber guards in November of 2018 when the recruits were thinking they'd be sitting behind Wigginton, THT and Haliburton? Maybe.

What were the expectations for this year given the attrition we had. I felt all summer and fall that this would be a down year similar to Hoibergs year 1. Lot's of close losses and a few bad losses.

Consider that there are 3 tiers of Big 12 teams:
  • Tier 1 = Teams you're going to lose to home and away -- Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia.
  • Tier 2 = Teams you should beat at home, but likely lose to on the read because Big 12 road wins are hard to come by -- Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Texas, TCU.
  • Tier 3 = Teams you should beat home and away -- Kansas State, Oklahoma State.
Using this criteria, here's our schedule color coded with green for wins against tough teams that I didn't think we'd beat, red for unexpected/bad losses, black for results I expected if I'm being honest about this year's team.

Win Home Miss Valley St
Loss Away Oregon St.
Win Home N. Illinois
Win Home So. Miss
Loss Home Michigan
Win Home Alabama
Loss Home Seton Hall
Win Home UMKC
Win Home Seton Hall
Loss Home Iowa
Win Home Purdue FW
Loss Home Florida A&M
Loss Away TCU
Loss Home Kansas
Win Home Oklahoma
Loss Away Baylor
Loss Away Texas Tech
Win Home Oklahoma St.
Loss Away Auburn
Loss Home Baylor
Loss Away Texas
Loss Away W. Virginia
Win? Home Kansas St.
Loss? Away Oklahoma
Win? Home Texas
Loss? Away Kansas
Win? Home Texas Tech
Win? Home TCU
Win? Away Oklahoma St.
Loss? Home W. Virginia
Win? Away Kansas St. ​

Minus the catastrophe with Florida A&M, I feel like we're doing maybe a bit better than I expected due to a couple of early season good wins. Hopefully we finish 6-3 and finish in the middle of the Big 12 as I expected.
Click to expand...

Note: Michigan, Alabama and Seton Hall (game 1) should be marked neutral instead of home.

Among the losses so far, heading into the season I thought we'd beat either Oregon State or Iowa, obviously FAMU, at TCU and possibly an additional game in Battle 4 Atlantis. So W-L is lower than my expectations, but not to an extreme (also, Iowa is having a significantly better than I expected) I figured we'd be a lot more competitive in the games vs. KU and Baylor.
 
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FerShizzle said:
What are the chances Haliburton shuts it down in order to get healthy for summer league in the next couple weeks? If that happens, I don’t see any wins left on the schedule.
Click to expand...

I don't see him doing that...and is it me or is that even a worse look for the program especially with this kind of a season?
 
madguy30 said:
I don't see him doing that...and is it me or is that even a worse look for the program especially with this kind of a season?
Click to expand...
He’s gonna be in a tough spot. I’m sure he doesn’t want the rep of quitting on his team, but wrist injuries can nag on for a long time when you are playing through it.

Summer league starts just a short month after the NBA finishes in June. And he will probably also want to be healthy for his predraft workouts which will start in May.
 
FerShizzle said:
Not sure it’s a worse look. At least that provides a built in excuse.

What looks bad is winning 11 or 12 games with a lottery pick on the roster.
Click to expand...

Yeah I mean with the wrist it's at least a legit reason....just kind of looks like 'they're so bad their team leader hung it up'.

You think 11 or 12 wins is still within reach?
 
madguy30 said:
Yeah I mean with the wrist it's at least a legit reason....just kind of looks like 'they're so bad their team leader hung it up'.

You think 11 or 12 wins is still within reach?
Click to expand...
Ya. KSU tonight. Texas at home. And a Wednesday win at the conference tourney.
They also could ambush someone in Hilton unexpectedly.
 
We are also 1-7 in single digit games this year so mix in a bit of bad luck/bounces or we could be over .500 anyway. Still not NCAA, but if we hold on against TCU and Texas and don't lose to FAMU we are probably NIT.
 
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FerShizzle said:
He’s gonna be in a tough spot. I’m sure he doesn’t want the rep of quitting on his team, but wrist injuries can nag on for a long time when you are playing through it.

Summer league starts just a short month after the NBA finishes in June. And he will probably also want to be healthy for his predraft workouts which will start in May.
Click to expand...
It's not going to happen. If he is healthy enough to play, he will. If he's not, he wont. I'll be shocked if the upcoming NBA draft has any bearing on those decisions for him.
 
If we wouldn’t have lost to Florida A&M (awful loss), TCU misses a banked in 25 footer and we don’t piss the Texas game away, we’re 13-10, 5-5 and tied for 5th in the Big 12 and right on the bubble. We’ve had plenty of chances to be a slightly above average team, just can’t make plays when needed.
 
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