***Fantastic Beasts Mafia***

yeah, I was trying to bait some mafia into jumping onto the Cleaver train.

On top of what you said, Fitzy (confirmed inno) and I (inno) are the two that voted to get mj over Cleaver. I don't think there was mafia movement night 1.

rescind Cleaver
My thought in voting Cleaver was that he was in the middle of votes piling on North where I would anticipate mafia jumping on the runaway, but there are plenty of other names there if someone has a better theory:

Day 2:
16 - North: Fitzy 11:33 am, JM 11:36 am, Cyfan13 11:37 am, Vikes 11:38 am, CYme 11:49 am, JHUNSY 11:59, Cubs 12:02 pm, Clonies 12:02 pm, PSY 12:08, Cleaver 12:13, Cows 12:15, Moores 12:58, SCNCY 2:10, SaraV 2:34, Azhuth 3:08, KC 3:19.
3- Cleaver: Discy 9:19 am, North 9:27 am, Vikes 9:59 am rescind 11:38 am, cyfan21 10:38.
1- Fitzy: Moores 8:14 am rescind 12:58 pm, Cyfan13 9:06 am rescind 11:37 am, Farnsy 9:08 am
1 - PSY: CTown 8:13 am, JM 8:28 am rescind 11:36 am
1 - JHUNSY: Hiphopp 8:43 am
1 - Discy: spiker 8:08 am

I guess Psy seems to have been more or less confirmed inno, so if its not Cleaver, I'd be inclined to be voting for someone in the JHUNSY at 1159 to Cows at 1215 vote time range. Not to say any of the earlier or later votes are safe.
 
Never really could get into wrestling. I would go to the ISU-Iowa matches back when I was in school and Cael was wrestling, but that was it for me.
I had to learn.
This was after my older son came home from school one day and told me that the teacher he graded papers for (who was also the wrestling coach) asked him why he didn't try wrestling. When I asked him how he responded, he told me "I just told him what you've always said - that you had no desire to watch two half-naked sweaty guys grabbing each other on a mat". Humbling experience for me right there. I told him that if he wanted to wrestle, he should, and that I would be at every meet cheering him on, just as I had for other all their other extracurriculars. The first meet I was lucky enough to sit next to a former coach, and he very patiently explained what was going on. And I kept my promise. I was at every meet, even the all-day tournaments that took up a majority of our winter Saturdays. Lemme tell you this - I was SO glad when he got his license and I didn't have to wake up at oh-dark-thirty to take him to his weigh-ins!!
Still not a big fan...but you do what you need to do for your kids, ya know?
 
I had to learn.
This was after my older son came home from school one day and told me that the teacher he graded papers for (who was also the wrestling coach) asked him why he didn't try wrestling. When I asked him how he responded, he told me "I just told him what you've always said - that you had no desire to watch two half-naked sweaty guys grabbing each other on a mat". Humbling experience for me right there. I told him that if he wanted to wrestle, he should, and that I would be at every meet cheering him on, just as I had for other all their other extracurriculars. The first meet I was lucky enough to sit next to a former coach, and he very patiently explained what was going on. And I kept my promise. I was at every meet, even the all-day tournaments that took up a majority of our winter Saturdays. Lemme tell you this - I was SO glad when he got his license and I didn't have to wake up at oh-dark-thirty to take him to his weigh-ins!!
Still not a big fan...but you do what you need to do for your kids, ya know?
That’s a good wrestling momma right there.
 
My thought in voting Cleaver was that he was in the middle of votes piling on North where I would anticipate mafia jumping on the runaway, but there are plenty of other names there if someone has a better theory:

Day 2:
16 - North: Fitzy 11:33 am, JM 11:36 am, Cyfan13 11:37 am, Vikes 11:38 am, CYme 11:49 am, JHUNSY 11:59, Cubs 12:02 pm, Clonies 12:02 pm, PSY 12:08, Cleaver 12:13, Cows 12:15, Moores 12:58, SCNCY 2:10, SaraV 2:34, Azhuth 3:08, KC 3:19.
3- Cleaver: Discy 9:19 am, North 9:27 am, Vikes 9:59 am rescind 11:38 am, cyfan21 10:38.
1- Fitzy: Moores 8:14 am rescind 12:58 pm, Cyfan13 9:06 am rescind 11:37 am, Farnsy 9:08 am
1 - PSY: CTown 8:13 am, JM 8:28 am rescind 11:36 am
1 - JHUNSY: Hiphopp 8:43 am
1 - Discy: spiker 8:08 am

I guess Psy seems to have been more or less confirmed inno, so if its not Cleaver, I'd be inclined to be voting for someone in the JHUNSY at 1159 to Cows at 1215 vote time range. Not to say any of the earlier or later votes are safe.

If anything, I guess I'd be more inclined to go with a JHUNSY-type vote. Day 2, North put a vote on Cleaver when JHUNSY had a vote on him already. Today, JHUNSY's got minimal discussion for throwing a vote on Cleaver.

Thoughts?
 
The two votes for cubs are suspect to me. If he got the ban hammer and in all likelihood will wind up clapped, it's basically wasted (or hidden) votes.
 
The two votes for cubs are suspect to me. If he got the ban hammer and in all likelihood will wind up clapped, it's basically wasted (or hidden) votes.


Statistically speaking, chances are an inno is voted out.

If he is going to get clapped, I'd rather vote him out than a different inno.

I've always held this somewhat controversial view.
 
Statistically speaking, chances are an inno is voted out.

If he is going to get clapped, I'd rather vote him out than a different inno.

I've always held this somewhat controversial view.
I get what you’re saying but this doesn’t make any sense. What do we learn?
 
I get what you’re saying but this doesn’t make any sense. What do we learn?
If he's inno, we don't learn anything -- but in that case only one inno dies instead of two (since he will be clapped anyway).

If he's not inno or is a special inno... well, we've got a problem.
 
If he's inno, we don't learn anything -- but in that case only one inno dies instead of two (since he will be clapped anyway).

If he's not inno or is a special inno... well, we've got a problem.
Well, technically if he's mafia, that's just their problem, but the other scenarios are a 'we' problem.
 
If he's inno, we don't learn anything -- but in that case only one inno dies instead of two (since he will be clapped anyway).

If he's not inno or is a special inno... well, we've got a problem.
Ok I’m following. So what do we want do with him?
 
Ok I’m following. So what do we want do with him?
I tend to also side with voting him out the real way, although I understand that it doesn't really offer much benefit over letting him be clapped...just another day of discussion without more losses, basically. Which is of questionable use this early in the game., I admit.
 
I think letting someone get clapped is the optimal play.

Over a 2 day period

Let them get clapped: gain two days of voting information, lose ~4.25 innos (two from mafia hit, 0.75 x 3 from voting out two and letting one get clapped assuming there's about a 75% chance someone is inno) out of 5 dead people; 85% of dead people are inno in this case

Vote them out: gain one day of voting information, lose ~3.5 innos (two from hit, 1.5 from voting out) out of 4 dead people; 87.5% of dead people are inno in this case

TL;DR our greatest power as innos is voting out mafia; every time we vote someone out, mafia also gets to hit someone. Let's not waste our greatest power for one day and let them get a free hit in.
 
I think letting someone get clapped is the optimal play.

Over a 2 day period

Let them get clapped: gain two days of voting information, lose ~4.25 innos (two from mafia hit, 0.75 x 3 from voting out two and letting one get clapped assuming there's about a 75% chance someone is inno) out of 5 dead people; 85% of dead people are inno in this case

Vote them out: gain one day of voting information, lose ~3.5 innos (two from hit, 1.5 from voting out) out of 4 dead people; 87.5% of dead people are inno in this case

TL;DR our greatest power as innos is voting out mafia; every time we vote someone out, mafia also gets to hit someone. Let's not waste our greatest power for one day and let them get a free hit in.
in before "nerd"
 
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