Defense is the KEY

[Rhoadhoused]

Clearly.
It's also simple that being good at both gives you a better chance come March at winning several games in a row against good teams. Offense is more prone to being fickle imo, particularly on neutral courts, than defense. We will not likely out-offense our way to where we would all like to go.

It is a long season and I think the program has an approach that respects that. In past seasons we have saved or played our best in March, and if it were not for horrible luck, we would have had even more success. If we get a similar increase in quality of play and this time couple it with good fortune, we can make a run.

I hear that a lot, but I have never seen any evidence.

I think it comes from when everyone plays sports as a kid, or maybe more accurately just from coaches in general who are desperately trying to get their players to try hard on defense even if it is less glamorous. Even if it may not be true and/or there is little to no evidence behind it, getting players to value it is important.

Anyway, I don't buy it and I'm not sure it's actually possible for defense and offense to have different consistencies since it is a zero sum game.

If offense is more random and fluky, the defense going against that offense has to be just as random and fluky in the opposite direction, right?

 

[swarthmoreCY]

I hear that a lot, but I have never seen any evidence.

Have you watched much basketball? Start with a review this year of ISU MBB.

You can be regarded as a talented team on offense, play well on that end, and simply not shoot well.
It is less likely a team that is regarded as good on defense due to the right combo of length, physicalness, and an understanding of positioning will be undone by anything more than the other team simply being better.

What was the standard deviation on ISU shooting % and scoring? What was the same for UVa's opponents?

 

[ISUCY11]

Fred runs a system not often seen before at the NCAA level, so you can throw your statistical improbability out the window for all he cares.

 

[Rhoadhoused]

Have you watched much basketball? Start with a review this year of ISU MBB.

You can be regarded as a talented team on offense, play well on that end, and simply not shoot well.
It is less likely a team that is regarded as good on defense due to the right combo of length, physicalness, and an understanding of positioning will be undone by anything more than the other team simply being better.

What was the standard deviation on ISU shooting % and scoring? What was the same for UVa's opponents?

There are plenty of teams that play good defense and allow big games. Confirmation bias is a powerful thing though. It's a cliche that's repeated at everyone from when they are 5 to when they are 70.

"Defense wins championships"

That is applied to both football and basketball in the same way, even though the sports are completely different. Does that make sense? Is that a coincidence that happens to be true or is it just a coachism to extract effort?

I have no need to ask if you have "watched much basketball" as I am not really big on basing my arguments off of anecdotes and the eye test.

I am going to go check some stuff out and report back.

 

[GoClones123]

So is the common thought by many experts and pundits that Offense doesn't travel in NCAA basketball?

I guess in my view it's about the team and their mindset coming into the dance. (and seeding) I think more weight should be placed on momentum and confidence, statistics are great but they are only one aspect.

 

[Rhoadhoused]

I've looked at 2002-2007 Kenpom adjusted offensive and defensive ratings for every single Elite 8 team.

I'm going to go all the way through 2014, but so far I have an overwhelming correlation between offense and making it to the Elite 8 compared to defense.

I honestly have no way to fudge these numbers, it's simply an average.

5 of the 6 years, the average offense was more highly rated than the average defense, if that makes sense.

So far the avg Kenpom adjusted offensive rating of Elite 8 teams is 16.2.
So far the avg Kenpom adjusted defensive rating of Elite 8 teams is 23.2.

Obviously, lower is better.

I'll be back when I'm done.

 

[dirtyninety]

I thought Love was the key. ?

 

[Rhoadhoused]

Eat your hearts out guys

 

[Cyclones17]

I feel like we have been a lot better at defense these past fews games. Does anyone have any proof for that statement?

 

[jbhtexas]

Eat your hearts out guys

So based on your research, what chances would you give a team rated 6th in adjO and 85th in adjD of reaching the Elite 8?

 

[Rhoadhoused]

So based on your research, what chances would you give a team rated 6th in adjO and 85th in adjD of reaching the Elite 8?

Absolutely no idea except that it is very possible.

6 is a very good number and 85 I would guess is slightly below average for before conference tourney numbers for a team who goes to the Elite 8.

 

[TurbulentEddie]

Absolutely no idea except that it is very possible.

6 is a very good number and 85 I would guess is slightly below average for before conference tourney numbers for a team who goes to the Elite 8.

It's also helpful to consider the *ratings* and not just the *rankings*. The difference between ISU 's 85th best AdjD and the 45h best AdjD is 3 points per 100 possessions. For offense (6th versus 45th), that margin is 8.5 points per 100 possessions. Even for the same differences in rankings, the differences in efficiencies are not equal. ISU has an elite offense that separates it from other at-large teams, while only needing to be slightly better on defense to have an average (compared to other at-large teams) defense.