Bowl Situation Thread
- Thread starter ISUcy08
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I think there is a good chance since Okie St is now probably going to be #3 tomorrow. All depends on Michigan. They will pick them if they get in the top 14, regardless of how bad the B1G is this year.
Probably not. I think people are kidding themselves if they don't think Michigan gets into the top 14 and gets an at-large. The ten BCS teams will most likely be the six conference champions plus Alabama, Stanford, Houston, and Michigan.
The Sun Belt may get a third with their secondary agreement with the BBVA Compass Bowl to replace SEC #9 (which would actually be SEC #10 with 2 teams in the BCS). Your link has FIU is that slot. They're also projecting the 4th Sun Belt team, Western Ky taking the PAC-12 spot in the New Mexico Bowl instead of UCLA.
That College Bowl Projections site is yet another site that doesn't have the most up to date information regarding secondary tie-ins. The Sun Belt doesn't have secondary tie-ins anymore according to a Lexington newspaper (Western Kentucky). The TicketCity Bowl has a secondary tie-in with the MAC (no longer the Big 12) according the bowl's website.
What comes around, goes around. I think Sun Belt got four bids last season, and I don't think any of them beat a bowl-eligible team outside of conference.
I took a close look at which bowls will have openings and which teams will be looking for an at-large bid. I really think Iowa State would be selected over Missouri for the Pinstripe Bowl if it comes to that, but let's say for the sake of argument that ISU is one of the at-large teams. We will also assume that Houston and Michigan get into the BCS and only one Big 12 team, otherwise this exercise is pointless.
These bowls WILL have one opening: Hawaii, TicketCity, New Mexico, BBVA Compass, Military
This bowl will have one opening IF BYU beats Hawaii OR UCLA loses to Oregon and doesn't get a waiver; two openings possible if both happen: Kraft Fight Hunger
The Mountain West has five bowl eligible teams and only four bowls. Expect Air Force to take the Military Bowl opening.
The MAC has six bowl eligible teams, three primary bowls, and five secondary bowls. Those secondary bowls are the Beef'O'Brady's, New Mexico, BBVA Compass, TicketCity, and Kraft Fight Hunger. As I understand the secondary bowls, those first three select first, then the last two. New Mexico and BBVA will have openings, but the Beef'O'Brady's will not. The other MAC team would go to either the TicketCity Bowl (which will have an opening) or the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl (which will have 0-2 openings). It's a pretty safe bet that all six MAC schools will go to bowl games.
If you're still following, that leaves the Hawaii Bowl with the only sure opening. It's hard to say which bowl between the TicketCity and Kraft Fight Hunger will end up with a MAC school. BYU beating Hawaii would be HUGE because I think UCLA will get their waiver. If that happens, one of those two bowls will have an opening.
So which schools (other than Iowa State potentially) would be fighting for those last 1-3 spots? The Big Ten will have one too many bowl eligible teams, and Illinois is the team most likely left out due to their six straight losses. Forget about the Sun Belt teams. They don't have any secondary bowls so they're screwed barring a miracle. ISU is clearly more attractive than any of those schools.
The only other thing to look at is the Big East. They have four bowl eligible teams, but Pitt and Syracuse play next week for bowl eligibility. The Big East has six tie-ins, but Notre Dame will get one of them. If UConn upsets Cincy on the road, they would be available, but ISU is clearly a bigger draw plus we beat them. If USF beats West Virginia at home, I think USF would get a Big East bowl and the Pitt/Syracuse winner would be an at-large team. That's a little trickier, but ISU would bring more fans.
In summary, here's who we should root for (other than ISU of course):
West Virginia over USF
Cincinnati over UConn
BYU over Hawaii
Oregon over UCLA
Southern Miss over Houston
Realistically, I don't think the Big 12 would let Missouri be picked over us unless we were sure to land in another good bowl. That's important to remember. I also don't see why any bowl would choose Missouri over Iowa State.
These are probably our most likely bowl scenarios, in no particular order:
Holiday vs. California
Pinstripe vs. Rutgers
TicketCity vs. Purdue
Kraft Fight Hunger vs. UCLA
Hawaii vs. Utah State or Hawaii
They also have Mizzou in the Holiday Bowl. IMO, the Holiday would jump at Texas but Texas may want to stay in the Meineke Car Care Bowl. I could see ISU jumping over Mizzou.........again. And picking up the Holiday Bowl. That would be a sweet bowl.
Because of the BCS selection order, I don't think there is anyway the Big 12 will get 2 teams. It looks like the NC game will be LSU and Alabama. Big 10 and Pac 12 Champs play in the Rose, Big 12 Champ plays in Fiesta, and ACC champ plays in the Orange. That leaves 2 spots in the Sugar open, and a spot in the Fiesta and Orange. The Sugar will get the first pick singe they loose the SEC champ, and my guess is they will take Stanford. The selection order after that is Fiesta, Sugar and Orange. Now remember, the Big East Champ and most likely Houston will be guaranteed BCS spots, and they will most likely be chosen last, or to the Orange and Sugar. That leaves the Fiesta as the only chance the Big 12 has to get 2 BCS teams, and I highly doubt they will go for a OU/OSU rematch. This is where Michigan will probably sneak in.
Scout has ISU in TicketCity. We'll send 20,000 to Texas if this happens. Maybe more.
Scout.com: 2011-2012 Bowl Projections - Week 13
Scout.com: 2011-2012 Bowl Projections - Week 13
This...I want to win, but give me anyone else beside Illinois. Northwestern would be a very nice challenge.
2011-2012 NCAA College Football Bowl Projections | College Bowl Predictions | College Bowl Projections
Ticket City Bowl.
Good ticket deals there. PLEASE PLEASE!!!
TicketCity Bowl - Purchase Tickets
EDIT: Anywhere but Pinstripe would be REALLY nice.
Ticket City Bowl.
Good ticket deals there. PLEASE PLEASE!!!
TicketCity Bowl - Purchase Tickets
EDIT: Anywhere but Pinstripe would be REALLY nice.
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Like the ticket city bowl, don't love it...have to take the day off and not a fan of an ESPNU bowl game
This link states:
Featuring the only 2011-2012 bowl match-up between storied teams from the Big Ten Conference and Conference USA,
CUSA isn't going to fill their spots. That bowl has a secondary agreement w/ the MAC but who knows. Bowls seem to do whatever they want after their initial match up isn't available.