Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

If ISU wins out then yes the lowest seed they will get is the 3 Seed. KSU is sitting at 10-7 right now with 1 game left. ISU, OU and UT are at 10-6 with 2 games left. If KSU, ISU, OU and UT win out that puts them at the following:KSU - 11-7ISU - 12-6OU - 12-6UT - 12-6The round robin would give each team the following seed:2nd - OU3rd - ISU4th - UT
I thought Texas had the tiebreaker over ISU? Head to head was a split, then record versus highest seeds gives Texas the advantage since they have a win over Kansas and ISU does not. If those three teams have identical records then ISU would be the #4 seed, wouldn't they?
 
I thought Texas had the tiebreaker over ISU? Head to head was a split, then record versus highest seeds gives Texas the advantage since they have a win over Kansas and ISU does not. If those three teams have identical records then ISU would be the #4 seed, wouldn't they?

Tiebreaker changes in a 3 way tie I believe.
 
twocoach,

Those rules you're linking to acutally refute your argument. In a three-way tie, under the rules, the first tie-breaker is: "Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams (mini round-robin).

In a three-way tie among ISU, Texas and Oklahoma:

1) OU wins because they went 3-1 (OU swept Texas)
2) ISU is 2nd because we went 2-2
3) Texas is 3rd because they went 1-3 (got swept by Texas)

You're at least the second person today on this board to fall into this particular trap.
 
Updated probabilities:

QudtUPn.png


Updated weighted probabilities:

WQsTOvE.png



Possible Seed/Opponent Combos:

rOvR1ws.png

Kansas State: 53.7%
Texas: 27.4%
Oklahoma: 13.6%
West Virginia: 4.1%
Baylor: 1.1%

4/5 Game: 91.4%
3/6 Game: 8.5%
2/(7/10) Game: 0.02%
 
Running through the possibilities and I cannot come up with one that ISU plays WVU when ISU is a 6 seed and WVU is a 3 seed. Which scenario does this occur?


Edit: Looked through the possibilities if WVU is a 3 seed. There are only three scenarios in which WVU would get the three seed and it involves Texas winning 1 or 2 games, WVU winning the last two, and OU, KSU and ISU losing the rest. That would mean a 4 way tie in which WVU gets the 3-seed due to record against ISU, OU, and KSU. In all three scenarios, they would play OU.
 
Last edited:
Barring the insane happening this weekend we'll be in the 4-5 game vs Kstate, with a 2nd round match vs KU
 
Worst case senario for selling session 3 tickets, but oh well. Will be glad we have tickets for that game on Thursday with KU, ISU, KSU in the same session.
 
Session 2, 4, and 5 tickets will be pricey. Kinda sucks that they make #1 seed play during the day on Thursday.
 
I guess only way for us to end up bottom half is TCU and Baylor wins this Saturday (and Clones W). Tough road ahead.
 
So it's all pretty much set now, barring a major comeback by TCU against Oklahoma. The Texas @ TTU game has no impact on tournament seeding, although if Tech wins, ISU gets a share of 3rd in the conference with UT (but the Longhorns get the tournament seeding tiebreaker). If Texas wins today, ISU will finish alone in 4th place.


Wednesday:

#10 TCU vs. #7 Baylor
#9 Texas Tech vs. #8 Oklahoma State


Thursday:

8/9 winner vs. #1 Kansas
#5 Kansas State vs. #4 Iowa State

#6 West Virginia vs. #3 Texas
7/10 winner vs. #2 Oklahoma


Our game vs. Kansas State will be tough, and if we win it, I think there's a decent shot that we'll get Oklahoma State again for a third time on Friday.
 
Last edited:
Idk if I'd rather play Ku or OSU in the 3rd rd. Two close wins in ot vs osu . they would really want that and its hard to beat a team 3 times. For that same reason that's why I think I'd want ku
 

Help Support Us

Become a patron