Teams
Forum List
Toggle sidebar

Big 12 Tourney Seeding Probabilities

nallen34 said:
The tie breaker rules say that Texas and Kansas St win the tie breaker over us and Oklahoma because they both went 1-1 against Kansas while us and Oklahoma went 0-2.
Click to expand...

No. If ISU, KSU, OU, and Texas tie, OU wins that tie breaker as they would be 4-2 against the three other teams. ISU and KSU would tie as they would be 3-3 against the others, and Texas would be last as they would be 2-4. KSU would win the tie beaker against ISU as they beat Kansas. So OU gets the two seed, KSU the three, ISU the four, Texas the five.
 
chuckd4735 said:
No. If ISU, KSU, OU, and Texas tie, OU wins that tie breaker as they would be 4-2 against the three other teams. ISU and KSU would tie as they would be 3-3 against the others, and Texas would be last as they would be 2-4. KSU would win the tie beaker against ISU as they beat Kansas. So OU gets the two seed, KSU the three, ISU the four, Texas the five.
Click to expand...

Ties Involving Two Teams.
  1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
  2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.


Ties Involving More than Two Teams.
  1. Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams (mini round-robin).
  2. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings, eliminating tied teams with inferior records until one team gains an advantage.
 
nallen34 said:
Ties Involving Two Teams.
  1. Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
  2. Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, and then continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.


Ties Involving More than Two Teams.
  1. Results of collective head-to-head competition during the regular season among the tied teams (mini round-robin).
  2. If more than two teams are still tied, each of the tied team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular season standings, and then continuing down through the standings, eliminating tied teams with inferior records until one team gains an advantage.
Click to expand...

Yes, ties involving more than two teams, first tie breaker is collective
round robin, as I pointed out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: gocubs2118
nallen34 said:
What about those rules doesn't say that Texas wins the tie breaker over us because they went 1-1 against Kansas?
Click to expand...

Because Texas went 2-4 against OU, ISU, and KSU, while ISU went 3-3 against OU, KSU, and Texas.

3-3 > 2-4
 
 
With 10 conference games remaining, there are 1,024 different outcomes for the remainder of the conference season. The below charts break down the possible finishes. The top chart is the percentage of scenarios where each team finishes in each respective tournament seed, and the bottom chart is the actual count of those scenarios. These are pure numbers with 50%/50% possible outcome for each game.

J30Gpck.png


For a more realistic projection of where teams may be seeded, below you will see the remaining 10 conference games with weighted odds attached to them (from rpiforecast.com). These odds are then used to calculate the below seeding probabilities.

OTyt8Go.png
 
The simple answer is that the number 1 comes before the number 2. When more than two teams are tied the first tiebreaker is mini round-robin. After the first tiebreaker, if any of the teams are still tied (had the same mini round-robin record) then you move on to tiebreaker number 2, record against the best team in the conference standings. If there is a four way tie for second Oklahoma has the best record in the mini round-robin, ISU and KSU are tied, and Texas has the worst record. The tie between ISU and KSU is then broken using tiebreaker number 2. So the order would be Oklahoma, KSU, ISU, then Texas.

What you are quoting from Chris deals with if two teams are tied with the same conference record, not a three or more team tie scenario.
nallen34 said:
What about those rules doesn't say that Texas wins the tie breaker over us because they went 1-1 against Kansas?
Click to expand...
 
 
Iowa State now is in full control of its own destiny for the #3 seed. Wins @ Baylor and vs. Oklahoma State would guarantee that. A #2 seed is still alive, too. However in order to get a #2 seed, both Oklahoma and Texas would need to lose in addition to ISU winning out. While possible (OU faces WVU and UT plays at TTU), it is not really likely.

If ISU gets the win tomorrow night at Baylor, I will turn my attention to WVU @ OU on Wednesday. WVU winning there would put them in position for a #6 seed. If OU wins instead, Oklahoma State would likely get the #6 if ISU beat them on March 8, meaning that ISU/OSU would play again on the Thursday of the Big 12 tourney
 
CyFan61 said:
Iowa State now is in full control of its own destiny for the #3 seed. Wins @ Baylor and vs. Oklahoma State would guarantee that. A #2 seed is still alive, too. However in order to get a #2 seed, both Oklahoma and Texas would need to lose in addition to ISU winning out. While possible (OU faces WVU and UT plays at TTU), it is not really likely.

If ISU gets the win tomorrow night at Baylor, I will turn my attention to WVU @ OU on Wednesday. WVU winning there would put them in position for a #6 seed. If OU wins instead, Oklahoma State would likely get the #6 if ISU beat them on March 8, meaning that ISU/OSU would play again on the Thursday of the Big 12 tourney
Click to expand...

I think WV beats KU on Saturday with Embid sitting. That would give WV the 6th seed if ISU beats OSU.
 
West Virginia could very easily beat KU with Embiid sitting the final two regular season games. Hopefully we play West Virginia on Thursday night in the 3/6 game.
 
chuckd4735 said:
I think WV beats KU on Saturday with Embid sitting. That would give WV the 6th seed if ISU beats OSU.
Click to expand...

Forgot about that... WVU in Morgantown on the bubble and no Embiid for KU? Would be an ideal situation for us in my opinion. Let them think about their win over Kansas for a few days instead of prepping to face ISU.

I have said this before but I repeat - sign me up right now if ISU's opponents on the way to the title game can be West Virginia and Oklahoma.
 
Playing with the bracket generator.
*Assuming we win out, KU wins out, and TCU loses out.
I bolded the winners to make it easier to read.


1- If OU beats WVU and UT loses to Tech, we still play OSU in the first round, just in the 3/6 game.

2-If WVU beats OU and UT beats Tech, we play WVU in the 3/6.

3-If OU beats WVU an UT beats Tech, we play OSU in the 3/6.

4-OU and UT lose to WVU and TTech, we play OSU in the 2/7 game on a back to back.

All of that is assuming KSU beats Baylor at home, but if BU wins then scenarios 1, 3 & 4 we end up playing BU instead of OSU. Scenario 2 stays the same.
 
Last edited:
 
IAStubborn said:
Head to head record or collective head to head has always been first tiebreaker. This is something that has been discussed ad nauseum. When you are wrong you love to double down... Want to play poker sometime?
Click to expand...

I always forget this because splits are so common, especially between teams with similar records.
 
Alright, I'm getting confused, so I just want this one fact confirmed:

If ISU wins our final two games, we get the 3 seed (and maybe 2) no matter what, correct?
 
 
jboffer said:
Alright, I'm getting confused, so I just want this one fact confirmed:

If ISU wins our final two games, we get the 3 seed (and maybe 2) no matter what, correct?
Click to expand...

If ISU wins out then yes the lowest seed they will get is the 3 Seed.

KSU is sitting at 10-7 right now with 1 game left.

ISU, OU and UT are at 10-6 with 2 games left.

If KSU, ISU, OU and UT win out that puts them at the following:

KSU - 11-7
ISU - 12-6
OU - 12-6
UT - 12-6

The round robin would give each team the following seed:

2nd - OU
3rd - ISU
4th - UT
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Help Support Us

Become a patron
Top Bottom
Back