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Big 12 standings computer projections

D

Dale

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2010
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Chicagoland
I ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations on the remainder of the Big 12 season, using Massey's rankings/win percentages. Here are all the scenarios with at least a 1% chance of happening:

Kansas outright: 35%
West Virginia outright: 26%
KU/WV tie: 18%
Three-way (or more) tie: 6%
KU/OU tie: 5%
Oklahoma outright: 5%
WV/OU tie: 2%
Other: 2%


Overall, Kansas has a 65% chance of keeping the streak going. If they had lost to OU, it would have dropped to lower than 25% -- amazing the difference that game made with so much of the season left.

Iowa State's odds of sharing the title are only 3%. However, there's a 31% chance that their game at Kansas will decide whether or not Kansas continues the streak.
 
Even if we don't win it, I'd be fine with punking KU out of a title.

It is frustrating knowing we could be easily 11-1 right now if we could close games.
 
mj4cy said:
Even if we don't win it, I'd be fine with punking KU out of a title.

It is frustrating knowing we could be easily 11-1 right now if we could close games.
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We can close close games. We've closed plenty of close games. We haven't closed every single close game.
 
mj4cy said:
Even if we don't win it, I'd be fine with punking KU out of a title.

It is frustrating knowing we could be easily 11-1 right now if we could close games.
Click to expand...

ISU isn't going to win in Lawrence...Senior Day and KU doesn't lose at home.
 
jimlahey said:
ISU isn't going to win in Lawrence...Senior Day and KU doesn't lose at home.
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I used to be 100% set we would lose that game. I'm not quite at 100% anymore. Something tells me that Georges wants a win in AFH before he is done.
 
If we win out, we are playing for a share of the conference title. Everyone is good for one more loss. And don't tell me ISU can't win out. If they get the McKay from last year back, they can win out. Not saying they will, but they could do it.

Also am I the only one that would rather have KU win it, than have it won by someone other than ISU. I want ISU to break the streak. If we can't do then let KU win it.
 
Does anyone have the link to the website where you can put in who you think wins the remaining games and it shows the conference outcome?
 
boone7247 said:
If we win out, we are playing for a share of the conference title. Everyone is good for one more loss. And don't tell me ISU can't win out. If they get the McKay from last year back, they can win out. Not saying they will, but they could do it.

Also am I the only one that would rather have KU win it, than have it won by someone other than ISU. I want ISU to break the streak. If we can't do then let KU win it.
Click to expand...



I'm with you. If we don't win it I don't want anybody to win it but ku. I don't want another school to go around saying they were the ones to end the streak.
 
boone7247 said:
If we win out, we are playing for a share of the conference title. Everyone is good for one more loss. And don't tell me ISU can't win out. If they get the McKay from last year back, they can win out. Not saying they will, but they could do it.

Also am I the only one that would rather have KU win it, than have it won by someone other than ISU. I want ISU to break the streak. If we can't do then let KU win it.
Click to expand...

I am with you 100%. Go Kansas!
 
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