A hard look…

[acoustimac]

I’ve really been pondering what’s been happening with the women's team of late. In a nutshell this is what we are seeing:
1. Three point shooting accuracy has gone completely out the window (one of the worst performance levels in Fennelly's tenure)
2. We've lost any semblance of bench (injuries and bench player performance)
3. zero post presence
4. no apparent adaptations of offensive style
5. Defensive presence eroding

sounds pretty dismal doesn’t it? Even in games the sisters have won many of these traits were present so it’s not just the three straight losses.

So, I thought I’d look at the schedule and do some forecasting based on what we are currently seeing. Here's the remaining schedule.
Texas (H)
Baylor
OSU
TCU (H)
KU
TTU (H)

looking at these games and assuming nothing changes, I see only one game that I would place as a high percentage win - TCU. Every road game (3) would be a likely loss. Texas at home could be outright ugly. That leaves TTU as a bit of a toss up. Assuming the ladies win that one they end up 9-9 in the conference and 17-12 overall. That would move them to a first round game in the Big 12 tournament. Wow…that’s a far cry from being picked to win the conference isn’t it? To make matters worse they likely would get TTU or KSU in that game and either could knock them out.

Now, the worst case scenario. If all the above happens the ladies stand at 17-13 and stand a good chance of being outside looking in for the dance.

Now let’s go the optimistic route. What if the fairy godmother waves her wand and the players suddenly start shooting threes at a normal rate? I could see the regular season win mark increasing to, at most, four more. That would put the team at 11-7 in the conf and 19-10 overall. That would get them to the second round of the tournament before they likely bow out. If they really recover at a magical level they could make the final of the tournament, but that’s beyond my dreams at this point.

Never thought we'd be in this situation where this highly talented team would be struggling to win a game let alone make the dance. I’m trying not to over-react, but this isn’t one game now. The ladies have been in a struggle most of the conference schedule.

 

[WartburgClone]

I am ready to host the WNIT.

 

[WartburgClone]

looking at these games and assuming nothing changes, I see only one game that I would place as a high percentage win - TCU. Every road game (3) would be a likely loss. Texas at home could be outright ugly. That leaves TTU as a bit of a toss up.

This is my assessment as well.

It really bothers me how much this all reminds me of the last 3 years of football:

1. Win 9 games and the Fiesta Bowl/win 28 games and reach the Sweet 16
2. Return almost everyone from historic season with sky high expectations only to flounder our way to a mediocre record

I really hope next year's basketball team doesn't follow this year's football team.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

This is my assessment as well.

It really bothers me how much this all reminds me of the last 3 years of football:

1. Win 9 games and the Fiesta Bowl/win 28 games and reach the Sweet 16
2. Return almost everyone from historic season with sky high expectations only to flounder our way to a mediocre record

I really hope next year's basketball team doesn't follow this year's football team.

Without any changes to the coaching staff, they will unfortunately be a middle of the conference team at best.

 

[isucy86]

The lack of bench is really startling. Injuries have had an impact. Seems like the staff lost it mojo recruiting HS players after the Donarski/Ryan class.

Also crazy how bad our 3 point shooting is with a experienced starting lineup.

 

[SolarGarlic]

I feel bad for them. It doesn't look like they're having any fun, and our bench is not Big 12 level. I check the scores during the game, but I can't watch them. It's too frustrating to watch whatever offense we're trying to run. Every game is the same. Bill is extremely stubborn in his approach. We see zero adjustments year after year.

 

[Cloneman89]

There are no post players. If Ashley is cold or exhausted ( lately gassed) we lose! Lexi/Emily have lost touch and Fritz is not there offensively. Doubt they make tourney st this rate. Sad for them.

 

[exCYtable]

They will make the tourn. Law of averages says the 3s will start falling again, and probably in bunches. In fact, they could get hot at just the right time and make a nice March run. But it is really hard to have trust in a team that doesn't run an offense and makes zero in-game adjustments. I can't watch them because the standing around on offense gives me migraines.

 

[casey1973]

Without any changes to the coaching staff, they will unfortunately be a middle of the conference team at best.

Totally agree. You don't have to look too far to the coaching changes in our football program. Revenue or not, CBF needs to make a change there sooner than later. Same ol same ol for too long......

 

[67CY]

Any updates on MEM?

 

[CycloneRulzzz]

At the time I thought we were deep enough but you wonder if we would have a couple more W's if we still had Aubrey.

 

[cyclone13]

We don’t develop deep bench so when the starters are cold, we only have 1-2 players to call upon. Injuries take their tolls but rven without injuries CBF always relies on 7 players in the rotation.
We can’t physically compete - this is not Iowa State’s Way (or CBF way)

Meanwhile in the east, TOE and CC are creating excitement. Girls now want to play for them, it was similar to Fry when he made them the only FB team in the state.

I am sorry if I sound too harsh but it is really frustrating to watch. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing multiple times and expecting different results

 

[acoustimac]

It easy to blame coaches, but some of these comments are rather strange. Lost their recruiting mojo after the Donarski class? Anyone look at the group coming in? How about signing Soares? Or bringing in Diew? Don’t develop a bench? Uhm…we were pretty deep going in this year before injuries took two posts away and the strange disappearance of the normally reliable M&M.

The one thing I can agree on is frustration over the stand around offense. Maybe that’s a way of not wearing out players? Not sure, but it is a mess.

 

[ICCYFAN]

It easy to blame coaches, but some of these comments are rather strange. Lost their recruiting mojo after the Donarski class? Anyone look at the group coming in? How about signing Soares? Or bringing in Diew? Don’t develop a bench? Uhm…we were pretty deep going in this year before injuries took two posts away and the strange disappearance of the normally reliable M&M.

The one thing I can agree on is frustration over the stand around offense. Maybe that’s a way of not wearing out players? Not sure, but it is a mess.

Hope springs eternal! I’m ready to turn it over the the incoming freshman class and let them start from the outset. Donarski probably beats out Kelsey Joens, but Emily Ryan needs to have competition for her playing time!

 

[ISU40]

We don’t develop deep bench so when the starters are cold, we only have 1-2 players to call upon. Injuries take their tolls but rven without injuries CBF always relies on 7 players in the rotation.
We can’t physically compete - this is not Iowa State’s Way (or CBF way)

Meanwhile in the east, TOE and CC are creating excitement. Girls now want to play for them, it was similar to Fry when he made them the only FB team in the state.

I am sorry if I sound too harsh but it is really frustrating to watch. The definition of insanity is doing the same thing multiple times and expecting different results

Add in Vick isn't 100%, which leaves walk -on King and freshman Dawkins. Izzy was showing promise, but she is too slow vs. some teams like OU and WV.

Don't be surprised if the game takes a slow turn tomorrow. Wouldn't surprise me if we don't run our offense until 10-15 left in the shot clock. We also got to see both Lexi and Ash bring the ball up yesterday. I'm guessing that will be the same tomorrow.

 

[pulse]

Lexi could probably average 20+ pts/game if she didn’t have to work so hard on defense. Then again the overall D would suffer then. Also the staff is severely lacking in offense coaching.