.

So the us is at the low end amongst other peer nations, and it’s harder than ever, and there are things we could do to help, but it’s what it is?

just confirming that i understand what it is you were trying to say.
Yes, I think there are some dreaded redistribution policies that should be used to make movement in both directions across economic quintiles.

What I'm saying is the countries held up as examples aren't much different from the US in relative mobility. So, I think using these as examples as ways to improve makes total sense. Claiming Western Europe and Scandinavia are great while the US is terrible in regards to upward mobility is simply false.
 
Yes, I think there are some dreaded redistribution policies that should be used to make movement in both directions across economic quintiles.

What I'm saying is the countries held up as examples aren't much different from the US in relative mobility. So, I think using these as examples as ways to improve makes total sense. Claiming Western Europe and Scandinavia are great while the US is terrible in regards to upward mobility is simply false.

i will agree to the point that we should strive to be better.

but, we’re still behind many of those countries, whether its not by very much or not.

I think we agree more than we disagree here. But we need to be better
 
Pulled from Reddit

"
Summary of Goldman Sachs Investor call where 1,500 companies dialed in. The key economic takeaways were:

50% of Americans will contract the virus (150m people) as it's very communicable. This is on a par with the common cold (Rhinovirus) of which there are about 200 strains and which the majority of Americans will get 2-4 per year.

70% of Germany will contract it (58M people). This is the next most relevant industrial economy to be effected.

Peak-virus is expected over the next eight weeks, declining thereafter.

The virus appears to be concentrated in a band between 30-50 degrees north latitude, meaning that like the common cold and flu, it prefers cold weather. The coming summer in the northern hemisphere should help. This is to say that the virus is likely seasonal.

Of those impacted 80% will be early-stage, 15% mid-stage and 5% critical-stage. Early-stage symptoms are like the common cold and mid-stage symptoms are like the flu; these are stay at home for two weeks and rest. 5% will be critical and highly weighted towards the elderly.

Mortality rate on average of up to 2%, heavily weight towards the elderly and immunocompromised; meaning up to 3m people (150m*.02). In the US about 3m/yr die mostly due to old age and disease, those two being highly correlated (as a percent very few from accidents). There will be significant overlap, so this does not mean 3m new deaths from the virus, it means elderly people dying sooner due to respiratory issues. This may however stress the healthcare system.

There is a debate as to how to address the virus pre-vaccine. The US is tending towards quarantine. The UK is tending towards allowing it to spread so that the population can develop a natural immunity. Quarantine is likely to be ineffective and result in significant economic damage but will slow the rate of transmission giving the healthcare system more time to deal with the case load.

China’s economy has been largely impacted which has affected raw materials and the global supply chain. It may take up to six months for it to recover.

Global GDP growth rate will be the lowest in 30 years at around 2%.

S&P 500 will see a negative growth rate of -15% to -20% for 2020 overall.

There will be economic damage from the virus itself, but the real damage is driven mostly by market psychology. Viruses have been with us forever. Stock markets should fully recover in the 2nd half of the year.

In the past week there has been a conflating of the impact of the virus with the developing oil price war between KSA and Russia. While reduced energy prices are generally good for industrial economies, the US is now a large energy exporter, so there has been a negative impact on the valuation of the domestic energy sector. This will continue for some time as the Russians are attempting to economically squeeze the American shale producers and the Saudi’s are caught in the middle and do not want to further cede market share to Russia or the US.

Technically the market generally has been looking for a reason to reset after the longest bull market in history.

There is NO systemic risk. No one is even talking about that. Governments are intervening in the markets to stabilize them, and the private banking sector is very well capitalized. It feels more like 9/11 than it does like 2008."
 
Anybody buy any cruise stock this week? They're all down about 80% from their 52 week high. We have been doing a Royal Caribbean cruise about once a year lately and 100 shares gets you about $250 in onboard credit which would be great for us. I'm kind of waiting to see what this stimulus check brings and I'm probably going to buy a bit while it's so cheap.
 
Anybody buy any cruise stock this week? They're all down about 80% from their 52 week high. We have been doing a Royal Caribbean cruise about once a year lately and 100 shares gets you about $250 in onboard credit which would be great for us. I'm kind of waiting to see what this stimulus check brings and I'm probably going to buy a bit while it's so cheap.


I think they will be the slowest to recover. Bankruptcy could hit them.
 
Anybody buy any cruise stock this week? They're all down about 80% from their 52 week high. We have been doing a Royal Caribbean cruise about once a year lately and 100 shares gets you about $250 in onboard credit which would be great for us. I'm kind of waiting to see what this stimulus check brings and I'm probably going to buy a bit while it's so cheap.

I just see that as a long long long play. This is going to be seared in to the minds of the populace for a long time...when this is all over and people are thinking about where to spend their travel dollars I think “Go on a cruise” isn’t going to be a real popular option.
 
I just see that as a long long long play. This is going to be seared in to the minds of the populace for a long time...when this is all over and people are thinking about where to spend their travel dollars I think “Go on a cruise” isn’t going to be a real popular option.
I've read conflicting opinions on that being a long play. They took a hit from the noravirus issues a few years back and the people that like to cruise seem to have a short memory on that. Even if it takes 2-3 years to recover to where they were just 3 months ago I'm ok with that because of the benefit I'd get when we do go on vacation with them.
 
Anybody buy any cruise stock this week? They're all down about 80% from their 52 week high. We have been doing a Royal Caribbean cruise about once a year lately and 100 shares gets you about $250 in onboard credit which would be great for us. I'm kind of waiting to see what this stimulus check brings and I'm probably going to buy a bit while it's so cheap.

I think I'd rather go with airlines if I was making a play on travel and the virus. Others have mentioned it, but there could be bankruptcy. If you have that credit and it is very low risk because of that (if you are traveling), I guess it makes some sense. I'd prefer to play the airlines though.
 
I think I'd rather go with airlines if I was making a play on travel and the virus. Others have mentioned it, but there could be bankruptcy. If you have that credit and it is very low risk because of that (if you are traveling), I guess it makes some sense. I'd prefer to play the airlines though.
I would go hotels.
 
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