The ol' "Kirk's stats are really good, it's the D, ST, O-Line, coaching..." that are the problem.
Yes, Kirk has nice stats. He has a very strong arm. He's accurate. He's smart. He's a really nice guy. Heck, I'd be happy to have him babysit my kids. But, if I want a QB to lead my team to playoff success, he's not the man.
With regard to the "his stats are great" argument, Kirk hasn't just played a couple years. He's been playing quite awhile. Is it really practical to think that he's a great QB, it's just that his team always lets him down? Can you think of another "top" QB in your years watching the league who has won so few big/playoff games? Maybe you're going to throw out Dan Marino? I'd hope you wouldn't, but he has a few more playoff wins than Kirk and a Super Bowl appearance...
While QB stats are nice, the #1 & #2 things I want to see in a QB are leadership and a "FB mind" - that is, an understanding of the game, calling out Ds, calling audibles, influencing the play calls... If you watch Kirk during a game, he scores extremely low in both these areas. He's a deer in headlights in the pocket and has no pocket feel - he's numb back there; a robot. He also shows no leadership. Goes to the sidelines and sits on the bench - then goes back out when the O has the ball. Minimal interaction with teammates or coaches, unless they come to him. No leadership.
Great guy. Nice stats. No-show when it really matters.
I don't think Kirk is great, and I think the odds of winning a SB with him are tiny. I think he's like almost every QB that need a good team around him to win. He can't have one of the worst two defenses in the league like last year, but that's not too unique. The last two years they played a ton of tight games, and he was as good as anyone in the league at engineering tying and go-ahead drives, but their defense was absolutely the worst in stopping those types of drives two years ago. Defense sucked last year but came up with some stops when they needed them, and they win 13.
Prior to last year Kirk was way overpaid. But last year, what they'll pay him this year, and probably what they could get him the next couple years, he's probably not overpaid. So I'm just saying the fact that the first few years of Kirk's contract being bad doesn't mean it's a bad idea to keep him as QB given what his salary will be and relative to other QBs in the next couple of years.
I'm just pointing out that a QB like Joe Burrow is considered a top 3 or 5 guy, and a gamer when his production in playoff games has been as identical to Cousins' as you can get. You want to chalk it up to fake stats, fine, but I'd like to know the winning percentage difference of QBs when their defenses give up 18.9 ppg vs. 28.3.
I think there's this misconception that teams like the Bengals, Eagles, Chargers, and Bills are set for years because they have good young QBs. Allen's on his second contract but his cap hit is going to start exploding in the next couple years. The other teams are going to have to face the reality of paying their franchise QB actual franchise QB money. Short of either some miracle drafting or some extreme Rams-like mortgaging of their futures to make one huge cap-destroying run, these are the best rosters Burrow, Hurts, Herbert and Allen will play with this coming season.
So do I think Minn will win a SB with Kirk? No. But I think that's also the case for about any veteran QB because that's how the league works. The rosters of the Eagles, Bengals and Chargers are going to get wrecked in the next couple of seasons as the QB cap hit gets massive. It's kind of what sucks in my opinion about the NFL now. The formula to win is:
- Draft a great rookie QB and win while he's on his rookie deal
- Destroy your cap in the future to try to put together one big push with a veteran team
- Have Patrick Mahomes
While mostly what I love about the 49ers success is Purdy, I also love the fact that they are an outlier and had success building a great roster around the QB.
