The computer projections don't generally account for officiating, especially the officiating Bill Self gets.
2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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Conference Standings with Tim Floyd Standings*
1. TTU 4-1 +1
1. KSU 4-1 +1
3. ISU 3-2 +1
3. BU 3-2 +1
3. KU 3-2 +1
3. OU 3-2 +1
7. UH 3-2 0
8. BYU 2-3 0
8. UCF 2-3 0
10. CU 2-3 -1
10. TCU 2-3 -1
10. UT 2-3 -1
10. WVU 2-3 -1
14. OSU 0-5 -2
If you are draconian about it you could even just group all of the +1s together the 0s together and so on, but I always think a win in hand is a bit of better situation even if you got a scheduling advantage to get there. If you do, there is a six way tie for first. My spacing indicates that.
*TF Standings account for where you have played your games and the difficulty of winning on the road. A Road win is +1, a home win or road loss is 0 and a home loss is -1. Just total them up.
1. TTU 4-1 +1
1. KSU 4-1 +1
3. ISU 3-2 +1
3. BU 3-2 +1
3. KU 3-2 +1
3. OU 3-2 +1
7. UH 3-2 0
8. BYU 2-3 0
8. UCF 2-3 0
10. CU 2-3 -1
10. TCU 2-3 -1
10. UT 2-3 -1
10. WVU 2-3 -1
14. OSU 0-5 -2
If you are draconian about it you could even just group all of the +1s together the 0s together and so on, but I always think a win in hand is a bit of better situation even if you got a scheduling advantage to get there. If you do, there is a six way tie for first. My spacing indicates that.
*TF Standings account for where you have played your games and the difficulty of winning on the road. A Road win is +1, a home win or road loss is 0 and a home loss is -1. Just total them up.
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Looking at those Floyd standings, and schedules...
KU has 2 good wins at home(OU and TCU) but have played prob the worst 3 teams on the road and won 1 (vs OSU, UCF, WV)
TT won 3 home games vs KSU, BYU, OSU, and won at Texas.
KSU also won 3 home games vs Bay, UCF, OSU and won at WV.
(edit- their next 7 games: at ISU, UH, BYU, Ok St; KU, TCU, OU at home - SIX ranked teams! woof!)
UH beat UCF, TT, WV at home and lost at TCU and ISU.
OU beat ISU and WV at home and won AT cincy. Losses at KU and TCU.
BAY beat BYU and Cin at home, won at OSU.
ISU beat UH, OSU at home, and TCU on road. Other road losses BYU and OU.
Whats it all mean?
I think it means... fade TT and KSU from here as their schedules get relatively tougher. And maybe Baylor and UH too. KU will KU at home, but any more road wins may be really tough as the season grinds their shallow roster. OU and ISU looking up? ISU is +800 and OU is +1500 at Caesars, seems like value there, as they say.
I also think it means 12-6 will very likely get you a share of the title this year. Hell, you might win it outright at that.
KU has 2 good wins at home(OU and TCU) but have played prob the worst 3 teams on the road and won 1 (vs OSU, UCF, WV)
TT won 3 home games vs KSU, BYU, OSU, and won at Texas.
KSU also won 3 home games vs Bay, UCF, OSU and won at WV.
(edit- their next 7 games: at ISU, UH, BYU, Ok St; KU, TCU, OU at home - SIX ranked teams! woof!)
UH beat UCF, TT, WV at home and lost at TCU and ISU.
OU beat ISU and WV at home and won AT cincy. Losses at KU and TCU.
BAY beat BYU and Cin at home, won at OSU.
ISU beat UH, OSU at home, and TCU on road. Other road losses BYU and OU.
Whats it all mean?
I think it means... fade TT and KSU from here as their schedules get relatively tougher. And maybe Baylor and UH too. KU will KU at home, but any more road wins may be really tough as the season grinds their shallow roster. OU and ISU looking up? ISU is +800 and OU is +1500 at Caesars, seems like value there, as they say.
I also think it means 12-6 will very likely get you a share of the title this year. Hell, you might win it outright at that.
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It's not just Big 12 officiating, it's most officiating.
College officials are paid and paid well for what they do. Until the NCAA/conferences have quality standards/audits that hold officials accountable to a certain standard it won't really change. Not only has officiating devolved, the discrepancies with home team vs away team calls has gotten out of hand.
Once a team gets on a run and the home crowd gets involved you can almost see the abundance of biased calls coming. It continues to worsen yet little is really being done about it.
I know there is a long path ahead, but if we finish the regular season with single digit losses, that's massive given the brutality night after night in the Big 12. There are maybe 2-3 teams in the league worse than the 4th or 5th team in any other conference.
Oklahoma State and West Virginia wouldn't finish 4th in Big East, Big 10 or ACC.
I'd be skeptical of Texas, UCF, and Cincinnati finishing 4th in any of those conferences also.
Not computers, but thought this was as relevant of a place as any.
18 overall, 21, 16 (from these guys)
themessenger.com
18 overall, 21, 16 (from these guys)
The Messenger’s College Basketball Top 25: We Need to Have an Uncomfortable Conversation About the Kansas Jayhawks
After losing to UCF and West Virginia, the Kansas Jayhawks fell out of our top 10. Are the Jayhawks’ flaws too great for them to put together six straight wins in the NCAA tournament?
themessenger.com
Just for fun, let's slot the Big 12 teams where they'd fall in the ACC, using KenPom as our metric:
Houston
1. North Carolina
BYU
Iowa State
2. Duke
Baylor
Kansas
Oklahoma
TCU
Texas Tech
Cincinnati
3. Wake Forest
4. Clemson
Texas
Kansas State
5. Virginia Tech
6. Virginia
7. Miami
8. NC State
9. Pitt
UCF
10. Syracuse
11. Florida State
12. Boston College
Oklahoma State
13. Georgia Tech
West Virginia
14. Notre Dame
15. Louisville
Goodness sign me up for that. I would imagine that would put us in Omaha for the first two rounds.
Surprised by Clemson. They have some decent wins but would be the 10th ranked B12 team.
Very relevant to looking at Big 12 projections:
Remaining strength of schedule looks REALLY good for Tech, who is #1 in the conference standings.. Un-balanced schedules suck, I miss the round robin.
Remaining strength of schedule looks REALLY good for Tech, who is #1 in the conference standings.. Un-balanced schedules suck, I miss the round robin.
Tech only plays Houston, BYU, Iowa St, and KU once. Basically the best schedule you could draw up if the goal is to maximize wins.
ISU plays 5 of our 6 toughest games in the first half of conference play. 4 of said 6 have already been played (@ BYU, Houston, @ OU, @ TCU).
Whereas Iowa State plays Houston and BYU twice. It is what it is. I miss the double round-robin, but I admit I do like the basketball powerhouse that is the new Big 12, and unfortunately you can't have both.
That must be why the BPI gives ISU the 2nd best odds to win the conference.
FWIW I don't see UH winning it (88% per BPI), I think they are gonna hate life on road in the Big12.
So is every team but they are the best equipped team in the conference to get the most road wins.
I would probably bet Houston over the entire field right now.
Current odds:
Houston +160
KU +500
ISU +700
Tech +700
BYU +800
Baylor +1000
OU +1500
KState +2000
TCU +3000
Best value BYU, Baylor and US? Fade Tech, their hardest part of the schedule is coming up.