2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

Even when CJ was shooting poorly from 3, he was very good handling the press and moving the ball offensively. Plus he was lighting it up over the summer, so TJ stuck with him. Gave some of those minutes to Pavs, which has been a win-win.

Weird, between Rob Jones, Gabe K and now Curtis Jones, it’s almost like TJ is always right with his personnel decisions. Hopefully people remember this when they want to start another Omaha thread.
This.

He'll make somebody a good coach someday.
 
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We did build a 21 point lead vs the best team we’ve played this year so the guys have shown the ability. With the way Pav and C Jones are playing now, I don’t think that lead evaporates like it did.
Not trying to be negative nancy or diminutive of their success, but A&M was down a couple players in that game and not at full strength. Pretty sure they were two of their top players.
 
Not trying to be negative nancy or diminutive of their success, but A&M was down a couple players in that game and not at full strength. Pretty sure they were two of their top players.
We were down a starter too. Being down one additional player is hardly a difference. We just lost momentum after racing out to a big lead. Happens
 
We were down a starter too. Being down one additional player is hardly a difference. We just lost momentum after racing out to a big lead. Happens
Both losses and the tight game vs VCU were due to long offensive droughts that I feel with the improvement of Pav and C Jones, offensively, they’ll be able to avoid, even against good teams.
 
is really looking great so far. Not only do we have a NET of #5 in the country, but we have a lot of opportunities coming up for Q1 wins in Big 12 play. 11 to be exact (as things currently stand).

Here's a snapshot of what our "dance card" looks like as of today.



Bracketologists is an awesome site to keep track of all things NET. It breaks down upcoming games, shows historical trends and movement, and predicts future Quad opportunities based on your schedule.

Check it out: https://bracketologists.com/team/iowa-state-cyclones
 
It's too early in the season to really put this metric into good use. Let's come back to this in mid to late February. Even though I am usually optimistic, I highly doubt doubt ISU will be anywhere near a top 5 NET rankings come late February
 
is really looking great so far. Not only do we have a NET of #5 in the country, but we have a lot of opportunities coming up for Q1 wins in Big 12 play. 11 to be exact (as things currently stand).

Here's a snapshot of what our "dance card" looks like as of today.



Bracketologists is an awesome site to keep track of all things NET. It breaks down upcoming games, shows historical trends and movement, and predicts future Quad opportunities based on your schedule.

Check it out: https://bracketologists.com/team/iowa-state-cyclones
This whole post feels like an ad.
 
It's too early in the season to really put this metric into good use. Let's come back to this in mid to late February. Even though I am usually optimistic, I highly doubt doubt ISU will be anywhere near a top 5 NET rankings come late February

It's really not though.
 
And for JP to be bragging about how they scheduled to affect the net... just makes me sick. This team will get tested in conference yes, but there is a reason why KU is ready to win the conference year in and year out.

Meh, unless you are a blue blood I don't think a loaded non con does a lot of good.
 
The formula puts WAY too much weight into blowing out bad teams and offensive efficiency.
I agree. The current NET formula (which isn't very transparent at all) seems to be rewarding teams for Running up the score on cupcake opponents. BYU is another prime example currently at #3 in NET. They've been beating sub 300 ranked teams by 40 and 50 points but losing their only game against a top 50 opponent.

NET used to reward teams for winning road games, but no longer does, so it encourages teams to schedule cupcakes at home in the pre-season and pile up blowout wins heading into conference play.

It would be nice if the NET would release their exact formula, but unfortunately they won't.
 
For people saying NET sucks because ISU is ranked too high, it's not just NET. Ranked 12th in Kenpom and 13th in Torvik. They are just tools. No model is perfect. You have to understand their strengths and weaknesses. That's why we have a committee that selects the teams.
 
And for JP to be bragging about how they scheduled to affect the net... just makes me sick. This team will get tested in conference yes, but there is a reason why KU is ready to win the conference year in and year out.
When you only have 5 returning players and are counting on a some of the 5 incoming freshmen to make an impact, you don't rush out to schedule a tough non-con when you have big12 conference games to get you in.

It didn't help that our tournament opponents and the big east challenge game opponents were not blue collar.
 
The next two-three weeks will give us a better glimpse.

I think the New Hampshire game will be an interesting one. We obviously should win, but I think they are the best non-P5 team we're playing in the non-conference season (besides VCU), and they have a semi-decent road win at an (albeit bad) Rhode Island team on their resume.

Plus add in that it's on a holiday at a weird time in the day and it could be a little interesting. Not losing to Florida A & M type "interesting", God forbid, but I wouldn't be too surprised it they keep it a bit uncomfortably close for a few more minutes longer then we would like to see.
 

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