2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Halincandenza]

I get what you are saying, but that's going to be really, really hard on all those little schools that rely on their early season road games to fund their athletic programs.

Not our problem lol. I just think that there are just so many bad games early on across the country it hurts the sport and doesn't really do much to improve your team. Maybe 1-2 help you sort out rotations etc. but I don't think you improve very much playing the really bad teams.

 

[Cyinthenorth]

One of the things I think should change in CBB is to shrink the division 1 size. Too many games are played against completely mismatched opponents.

It only seems to be growing.

 

[Didley]

Not our problem lol. I just think that there are just so many bad games early on across the country it hurts the sport and doesn't really do much to improve your team. Maybe 1-2 help you sort out rotations etc. but I don't think you improve very much playing the really bad teams.

Thats like arguing against the 13-16 seeds being in the NCAA tournament. Sure, its usually a blowout, but every once in a while lightning strikes and thats what makes those games special. Also, a lot of the P5 schools can see tape of some of those players against top competition and recruit them in the portal.

 

[madguy30]

One of the things I think should change in CBB is to shrink the division 1 size. Too many games are played against completely mismatched opponents.

What?

 

[madguy30]

Not our problem lol. I just think that there are just so many bad games early on across the country it hurts the sport and doesn't really do much to improve your team. Maybe 1-2 help you sort out rotations etc. but I don't think you improve very much playing the really bad teams.

It's been this way for a very long time.

I think the holiday tourneys have helped a bit.

 

[MeanDean]

Globally undisputed makes me laugh. I feel like most Iowa fans I encounter refuse to acknowledge the Big 12 being the best as fact.

I think I see the problem. I'm sure you know it too,

 

[HFCS]

Duke
Michigan State
Wisconsin
Purdue
Alabama
FAU

My goodness. They’ve got a “kick me” sign on their back with a schedule like that.

That being said, doesn’t that look fun? I know we have plenty of good games in the Big 12 but I’d love to play a longer conference schedule or more OOC against P6 peers like that. I’d gladly want to see 22 conference games (not just 20) and a home-and-home with somebody like Creighton or Wisconsin and junk a couple of these silly cupcake games.

Fewer wins, sure, but the committee is much better about recognizing the quality of wins rather than the raw number nowadays.

I trust the NCAA tournament committee infinity times more to rationally evaluate resumes using an establisthed list of criteria vs the small CFP committee admittedly just making up new rules every week.

If the Big 12 stays as tough as it's been in basketball I assume they'll dial this back. AZ has coaches and administrators from Gonzaga that I think just stayed in Gonzaga scheduling mode when they came over, they also brought the international recruiting with them.

 

[ebState]

DePaul lost to Fort Wayne. Woof. Sub 150 KP now.

That would be a q3 win if ISU beat them in Chicago today.

An already soft non-con gets softer.

 

[werdnamanhill]

DePaul lost to Fort Wayne. Woof. Sub 150 KP now.

That would be a q3 win if ISU beat them in Chicago today.

An already soft non-con gets softer.

Yup. VCU and DePaul both with bad bad game 1 losses.

 

[cyfan92]

Factoring out pre-season bias, Otz and the crew are #3 in the country, according to Torvik.

 

[MeowingCows]

Factoring out pre-season bias, Otz and the crew are #3 in the country, according to Torvik.

View attachment 118979

STOP THE COUNT

 

[CyPunch]

Yup. VCU and DePaul both with bad bad game 1 losses.

That's an unfortunate. Just adds a little more pressure to those games. Less to gain, more to lose.

As long as we beat VCU we should be adding a quality top 25 opponent to the non-con. Either FAU or Texas A&M.

 

[cyfan92]

If we can win 2/3 in Orlando or better, plus beat Iowa. That will be plenty for the resume when you consider 2/3 of Big 12 games are Q1 or Q1a

 

[cyfan92]

Milan is 12th in POY standings after two days..

 

[CyPunch]

If we can win 2/3 in Orlando or better, plus beat Iowa. That will be plenty for the resume when you consider 2/3 of Biig 12 games are Q1 or Q1a

It will be fine since we are in the Big 12. It just definitely leaves something to be desired.

A lot of things went one way to contribute to a poor non-con...

-Non-premier Thanksgiving tournament for the first time in years
-Iowa relatively down
-Paired with DePaul in the Big East challenge

In hindsight, this would of been the perfect year for TJ to bring in South Dakota St or another somewhat formidable Summit League opponent. Oh well.

 

[CyPunch]

Milan is 12th in POY standings after two days..

View attachment 118980

And that's not even good enough for 1st in the Big 12 Freshmen of the Year standings

 

[tman24]

Not our problem lol. I just think that there are just so many bad games early on across the country it hurts the sport and doesn't really do much to improve your team. Maybe 1-2 help you sort out rotations etc. but I don't think you improve very much playing the really bad teams.

playing these really bad teams will allow a player to work on a skill that needs improving. many of these games are development games and not competitive games.

 

[ebState]

playing these really bad teams will allow a player to work on a skill that needs improving. many of these games are development games and not competitive games.

Maybe they have some real value, but playing this many can't be optimal. Surely after the 4th or 5th or 8th dumpstering of a sub 300 kenpom team you would be better off getting reps against someone who punches closer to your weight.

It's great to work on your form/technique with an unloaded bar, but you are never going to get any stronger until you start loading weight.

 

[inCyteful]

Factoring out pre-season bias, Otz and the crew are #3 in the country, according to Torvik.

View attachment 118979

That might be a bit high.

I wouldn't put them a spot above 10 at this point.

 

[Chitowncy]

It will be fine since we are in the Big 12. It just definitely leaves something to be desired.

A lot of things went one way to contribute to a poor non-con...

-Non-premier Thanksgiving tournament for the first time in years
-Iowa relatively down
-Paired with DePaul in the Big East challenge

In hindsight, this would of been the perfect year for TJ to bring in South Dakota St or another somewhat formidable Summit League opponent. Oh well.

Yes, it's looking pretty clearly to be the weakest non-conference ISU has had in quite some time. I can't remember a worse non-con honestly from our current vantage point at least. Maybe only one Tourney team (maybe two) depending on how the ESPN tournament shakes out.

We'll probably stay outside the rankings, even if we're 10-0 (except the ESPN tournament could cause us to jump if we get to play and beat other ranked teams like FAU) cause we just won't generate attention and every voter will assume those are games we should win by a bunch. Also, it's riskier because if they drop two or 3, then they're going to be outside the Dance looking in coming into Big XII season. Not a lot of margin for error with such a soft schedule.

It is what it is and I'm sure TJ will keep them showing up and playing hard. Hope they can win that first one in Orlando to stay on the winner's side of the bracket and get three wins there. Winning down there might be our only real chance in the noncon to build the resume.