2021 Stock Market
- Thread starter SoapyCy
- Start date
Powell, Yellen and Co are married to low rates forever (Bernanke/MMM school of thought). As long as rates are high and Fannie/Freddie pools are getting securitized. Housing prices will only go up
The risk of massive foreclosures is out there. A lot of homes bought at 90-95% LTV. Not much cushion there. Several refinanced to take “cash” out of their houses. Slippery slope of the rates go up 1.5 Percent and scary if we pop 2.5% in rates.
Hey there -- 2007 called and wants this quote back.
I've been saying this fiscal/monetary reckoning has been coming for awhile now. I thought it would be more like the end of the decade, but the virus and federal profligacy is moving the timeline up.
We were already running a $1 trillion/5% of GDP structural deficit even before the virus. Then tack on revenue losses from the economic contraction, the six bills (so far) totaling $5.3 trillion of relief spending and just general expenditures, and now the prospect for a few trillion more in infrastructure... Well oh my we have a situation...
This on top of American households having their highest level of savings in generations and tugging at the reins to spend it once the virus (thankfully) takes a bow, which it seems like it will do in the next few months.
BLS says the unemployment rate is 6.2%. That is probably artificially low because of lower participation rates, so there might be at least some extra slack in the labor market. Most of that labor is tailored towards personal services (e.g., the restaurant, hotel, and tourism sectors that contracted so badly during the recession), which is good because those are the sectors set to surge the most once the virus constraints are lifted once and for all and we can spend/travel again.
That labor is not going to be tailored to the infrastructure spending, though.
I guess the saving grace of the above is that a lot of the federal spending, and especially the infrastructure is backloaded. The economy can absorb all that demand without significant inflation over time better than in the next 12 months. So we might make it through this, but there is a real possibility between the Fed having to make some hard choices to either tolerate inflation we haven't seen since the 1970s or to cause another recession to cool things off.
Good thing I'm 110% in equities. No better inflation hedge.
Nice gains from SOS which may or may not be a shell company. Hoping it sky rockets after hours.
Ive always wanted to start a 10k portfolio of stocks and etfs with widely used acronyms and words for their tickers and just let it run with no moves for 10 years ie:
SOS
YOLO
PLUG
LAND
THC
AG
KSU
...etc.
Curious if any posters have Wife's/SO's who sell on Poshmark?
My wife has been using it for about a year and a lot of her friends are on it as well - given they take 20% of the "sale price" seems like it's a decent niche. I know that it really isn't "unique" compared to sites like eBay, but I can 110% guarantee none of these ladies would ever mess with selling their clothes/shoes/handbags/lotions/makeups/soaps/etc. on eBay - thinking about getting a starter position since $POSH has come crashing back to earth since its IPO and the disappointing results posted earlier this week.
My wife has been using it for about a year and a lot of her friends are on it as well - given they take 20% of the "sale price" seems like it's a decent niche. I know that it really isn't "unique" compared to sites like eBay, but I can 110% guarantee none of these ladies would ever mess with selling their clothes/shoes/handbags/lotions/makeups/soaps/etc. on eBay - thinking about getting a starter position since $POSH has come crashing back to earth since its IPO and the disappointing results posted earlier this week.
I just sold out - tired of being a baggie - though the dip and flip last spring was nice. Curious why your "time to buy" is at 3-year highs?
Curious about the EV changes. Seems to be some strong buy indicators out there. They see something I don’t and it has me curious.
I can see that as well. USBank has been that more value type hold for me. Although recently has shot up. But Ford is definitely on that track for conservative gains.
