2021 Big 12 Championship Computer Projections

[cycfan1]

I would imagine ESPN would have massive, massive issues with that, and rightfully so, considering they are already paying for a championship game where those two schools are expected to be able to participate. It's a nonstarter.

Eh, I'm sure 8 teams have issue with ESPN colluding to destroy the Big 12, so we can call it fair.... **** em.

Better yet, the conference could throw some games to ensure they dont make it.

 

[Dale]

After Saturday's games:

Oklahoma: 76.4% (51.5% 1st, 24.8% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 52.1% (23.5% 1st, 28.6% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 32.9% (13.8% 1st, 19.1% 2nd)
Baylor: 26.2% (9.6% 1st, 16.5% 2nd)
Texas: 7.0% (0.7% 1st, 6.3% 2nd)
TCU: 3.0% (0.3% 1st, 2.6% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 2.2% (0.5% 1st, 1.7% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.1% (0.0% 1st, 0.1% 2nd)
Kansas: uh

Most likely matchups:
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 34.4%
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 20.1%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 13.2%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 8.0%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 7.7%
Oklahoma/Texas: 5.0%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 4.3%

ISU record chances:
4-8: 0.1%
5-7: 1.8%
6-6: 8.9%
7-5: 23.4%
8-4: 34.3%
9-3: 24.6%
10-2: 6.9%

ISU odds of championship game at conference record:
5-4: 0.3%
6-3: 18.4%
7-2: 79.8%
8-1: 99.9%

 

[Dale]

This week's games and how they affect ISU's championship game odds:

• Iowa St. over Oklahoma St.: 34.2% (8.5% to 42.7%)
• Kansas over Oklahoma: 3.5% (32.5% to 36.0%)
• Kansas St. over Texas Tech: 1.4% (32.0% to 33.4%)
• West Virginia over TCU: 0.2% (32.7% to 32.9%)

Five most important games left for ISU not involving ISU -- see if you can tease out the theme:

• Kansas St. over Baylor: 7.6% (29.7% to 37.3%)
• TCU over Baylor: 7.2% (29.3% to 36.5%)
• Texas over Baylor: 6.5% (29.7% to 36.2%)
• Texas Tech over Baylor: 6.4% (30.8% to 37.2%)
• Oklahoma over Baylor: 6.3% (29.4% to 35.7%)

 

[Jerms]

Even more reason to cheer against Baylor.

 

[cycfan1]

Think pretty good chance Baylor loses 3 games, (2 of these 4 KState, OU, TCU, TX)

Two losses puts pretty comfortably in then with all tiebrake scenarios but requires winning 3 of 4 (OkSt OU TX @ WV).

Not going to be easy, but certainly doable with this group.

 

[TopCy]

I wouldn't be shocked if everyone has at least two losses when it's all said and done (even OU, I just don't think their defense is good enough). Get ready for a lot of tiebreaker speculation down the stretch.

 

[ClonesFTW]

ISU record chances:
4-8: 0.1%
5-7: 1.8%
6-6: 8.9%
7-5: 23.4%
8-4: 34.3%
9-3: 24.6%
10-2: 6.9%

Dang, 10-2 would be nice...

I'll see myself out.

 

[fcclone]

This week's games and how they affect ISU's championship game odds:

• Iowa St. over Oklahoma St.: 34.2% (8.5% to 42.7%)
• Kansas over Oklahoma: 3.5% (32.5% to 36.0%)
• Kansas St. over Texas Tech: 1.4% (32.0% to 33.4%)
• West Virginia over TCU: 0.2% (32.7% to 32.9%)

Five most important games left for ISU not involving ISU -- see if you can tease out the theme:

• Kansas St. over Baylor: 7.6% (29.7% to 37.3%)
• TCU over Baylor: 7.2% (29.3% to 36.5%)
• Texas over Baylor: 6.5% (29.7% to 36.2%)
• Texas Tech over Baylor: 6.4% (30.8% to 37.2%)
• Oklahoma over Baylor: 6.3% (29.4% to 35.7%)

It kind of surprises me that an OSU loss of some kind isn’t one of those five most important games for ISU.

 

[Thomasrickj]

Just win outright and we will be fine.

 

[CloniesForLife]

If we can get past OSU (a big if as we've struggled against them the last couple years) I like how the rest of the season looks. WVU and TCU aren't quite as good as I thought they'd be and Texas already has a couple losses and hopefully will be playing on a somewhat cold November day. OU looks better with the new QB but when we play them there will be more film on him and he is still a freshman. Heacock and company may have some tricks up their sleeve for him.

 

[KennyPratt42]

It kind of surprises me that an OSU loss of some kind isn’t one of those five most important games for ISU.

We lose to OSU and the window gets really small so results in any game don't make a big percentage difference. Win and we have the tiebreaker over OSU and not Baylor so Baylor losses mean more to us than OSU losses.

 

[KennyPratt42]

@Dale Couple quick questions when you get a chance.

1. If we go 5-1 what do our odds to make the championship game look like if the one loss is to Oklahoma and if the one loss is to Oklahoma St.

2. What are our odds if we go 4-2 and lose to both Oklahoma schools. I'm assuming it is close to zero and the 4-2 scenarios involve beating at least one and losing one of the other four games (or the unlikley scenario where we win both and lose two of the other four).

 

[JM4CY]

Even more reason to cheer against Baylor.

Agreed. But it really feels like Baylor has atleast one, if not two, wtf losses in there. Like to tech or somebody weird they should beat but won’t.

 

[Dale]

1. If we go 5-1 what do our odds to make the championship game look like if the one loss is to Oklahoma and if the one loss is to Oklahoma St.

5-1, loss to Oklahoma: 66.5%
5-1, loss to OSU: 65.7%
5-1, loss to anyone else: 89.6%

2. What are our odds if we go 4-2 and lose to both Oklahoma schools. I'm assuming it is close to zero and the 4-2 scenarios involve beating at least one and losing one of the other four games (or the unlikley scenario where we win both and lose two of the other four).

Pretty close to zero: 2.3%. OSU and Oklahoma each with around 85-90% chance of making the title game in that scenario, with Baylor making up almost all the rest.

 

[cyclonedave25]

 

[Dale]

Essentially a tie for second-best odds after yesterday's games:

Oklahoma: 75.3% (50.1% 1st, 25.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 43.3% (18.3% 1st, 25.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 42.5% (18.9% 1st, 23.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 29.4% (11.7% 1st, 17.7% 2nd)
Texas: 7.1% (0.8% 1st, 6.3% 2nd)
TCU: 0.8% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.8% (0.2% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: hey, at least you played three good quarters yesterday

Most likely matchups:
Iowa St./Oklahoma: 26.4%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 25.7%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 16.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 9.6%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 6.8%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 6.0%
Oklahoma/Texas: 5.3%

 

[Dale]

ISU record chances:
5-7: 0.6%
6-6: 5.1%
7-5: 19.1%
8-4: 35.1%
9-3: 30.4%
10-2: 9.7%

ISU odds of championship game at record:
7-5: 0.5%
8-4: 23.8%
9-3: 80.3%
10-2: 99.9%

 

[cycfan1]

Essentially a tie for second-best odds after yesterday's games:

Oklahoma: 75.3% (50.1% 1st, 25.2% 2nd)
Oklahoma St.: 43.3% (18.3% 1st, 25.0% 2nd)
Iowa St.: 42.5% (18.9% 1st, 23.6% 2nd)
Baylor: 29.4% (11.7% 1st, 17.7% 2nd)
Texas: 7.1% (0.8% 1st, 6.3% 2nd)
TCU: 0.8% (0.0% 1st, 0.7% 2nd)
Texas Tech: 0.8% (0.2% 1st, 0.6% 2nd)
West Virginia: 0.6% (0.0% 1st, 0.5% 2nd)
Kansas St.: 0.2% (0.0% 1st, 0.2% 2nd)
Kansas: 0.0% (0.0% 1st, 0.0% 2nd)

Iowa St./Oklahoma: 26.4%
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St.: 25.7%
Baylor/Oklahoma: 16.1%
Iowa St./Oklahoma St.: 9.6%
Baylor/Oklahoma St.: 6.8%
Baylor/Iowa St.: 6.0%
Oklahoma/Texas: 5.3%

Whats tiebrake in a theoretical ISU/Baylor/OSU tie?

Interesting enough these are OUs final three games with only ISU at home. That’s a brutal stretch to end year.

 

[Dale]

Whats tiebrake in a theoretical ISU/Baylor/OSU tie?

Interesting enough these are OUs final three games with only ISU at home. That’s a brutal stretch to end year.

If ISU/Baylor/OSU all go 7-2, first tiebreak would be best victory -- e.g. if ISU beat OU and the others lost to OU, ISU would be in the championship game. If all three teams' other loss was to OU, then it comes down to scoring margin, which happens in 0.6% of scenarios right now. My model just flips a coin in those situations, although I may change that if it starts to look like a real possibility.

There is a 42 percent chance OU goes either 1-2 or 0-3 its last three games -- that is a brutal stretch.

 

[Dale]

This week's games and how they affect ISU's championship game odds:

• Iowa St. over West Virginia: 25.2% (24.9% to 50.1%)
• Texas over Baylor: 7.8% (38.7% to 46.5%)
• Kansas over Oklahoma St.: 5.0% (42.2% to 47.2%)
• Texas Tech over Oklahoma: 3.3% (41.6% to 44.9%)
• Kansas St. over TCU: 0.9% (42.1% to 43.0%)

Five most important games left for ISU not involving ISU -- see if you can tease out the theme:

• Kansas St. over Baylor: 10.3% (38.0% to 48.3%)
• Oklahoma over Baylor: 9.4% (37.9% to 47.3%)
• TCU over Baylor: 8.7% (39.0% to 47.7%)
• Texas Tech over Baylor: 8.6% (39.9% to 48.5%)
• Texas over Baylor: 7.8% (38.7% to 46.5%)

ISU's remaining games ranked on importance:

• Iowa St. over Oklahoma: 46.9% (21.5% to 68.4%)
• Iowa St. over Texas: 36.2% (21.0% to 57.2%)
• Iowa St. over Texas Tech: 25.3% (25.0% to 50.3%)
• Iowa St. over West Virginia: 25.2% (24.9% to 50.1%)
• Iowa St. over TCU: 25.1% (23.5% to 48.6%)