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  1. M

    2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

    For me, it's an issue of what the goal is of the systems are and how they're used. Kenpom and Barttorvik are predictive and are trying to describe how good a team actually is. The NET is kind of trying to be not only predictive with its net efficiency component but also reflect resumes with its...
  2. M

    2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

    On Kenpom, I didn't find anything 100% definitive. This article talks about his methodological changes that were adding in some kind of effective cap or at least downweighting especially large blowouts. Pomeroy has made some other methodological changes since then and didn't mention anything...
  3. M

    2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

    I think there also might be some confusion and conflation now between NET and some of the metric-based predictive systems like Kenpom and Barttorvik. My understanding is that Kenpom and Barttorvik effectively have a margin of victory caps that mean a 40-point win over a cupcake really isn't any...
  4. M

    Stop underutilizing Ward

    Yeah, that was something that occurred to me. I figure that kind of impact is strongly correlated with block percentage. Because of that correlation, all-in-one box score summary stats like Win Shares or BPM (both of which Ward is doing very well on right now, and I know ZRF likes to look at)...
  5. M

    Stop underutilizing Ward

    I actually might agree with your overall point this time. Ward's on-off numbers in Big 12 play are great and way better than Jones (last year, however, Jones was great on the on-off metrics). But I'm confused by the bolded point. You've refused to acknowledge Jones's unseen impact before but are...
  6. M

    2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

    A couple interesting things I noticed when perusing Barttorvik today: First, Iowa State has had very similar adjusted offensive ratings the last 4 games (all very good), and 5 of the 7 Big 12 games. But they've come in different ways, some with great offensive rebounding, some with high free...
  7. M

    2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

    Yeah, there's a reason that Barttorvik gives Houston an 85% chance of winning the conference (68% to win it outright). Their metrics put them on a whole different level from the rest of the conference right now. I tend to think those numbers are too high, but I do think that Houston is the clear...
  8. M

    Cyclones in the pros 2023-2024 (hoops)

    Pacers and Celtics are on TNT tomorrow night at 6:30. I believe that's their last regular season game on national TV, so it's worth watching. Sounds like there's at least a chance Tyrese will be back for it. I imagine next season we'll get a lot more chances to see the Pacers on national TV.
  9. M

    Cyclones in the pros 2023-2024 (hoops)

    In the few Pacers games I've seen, I sometimes got frustrated when Hield or Mathurin made an aggressive play early in the shot clock without Tyrese ever touching the ball. But I think that's the kind of freedom and confidence that Carlisle wants them to play with, and it's probably helped them...
  10. M

    Remaining schedule

    It doesn't matter too much if they're Q2 by the time we play them. It matters at the end of the season when the selection committee is looking at the team sheets that have Iowa State's record against each quadrant.
  11. M

    *** Official #7 Kansas vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    I'll eat some light crow for my comments on King in the KSU thread. He was great scoring today. I did say, though, that if either he or Watson could make threes, that would make them the clear best player at that spot. Hopefully King is able to keep his shot going moving forward (and ideally...
  12. M

    *** Official Kansas State vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    By NBA standards, **** certainly isn't anything special, but I feel like there's a pretty big difference to being in the 30th percentile of NBA athleticism than the 10th percentile. (I didn't put a ton of consideration into those numbers, just more of a thought exercise.) I do seem to remember...
  13. M

    *** Official Kansas State vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    That is a worthy note. But I'd point out that 22% is still significantly lower than 29.7% and to attribute that primarily to taking a few more threes (some of which were desperation) seems wrong to me. I do agree that defensive rebounding is somewhere where Iowa State is potentially susceptible...
  14. M

    *** Official Kansas State vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    That's definitely true. I think, though, it's relatively easy to tell whether it's going to be that kind of night for King pretty early on. Last night, it was pretty clear that it wasn't going to be his night offensively, so I really wasn't too upset about his foul trouble. That being said, I...
  15. M

    *** Official Kansas State vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    I noted in my other post, but I'll just add it standalone here: This season KSU is the #25 offensive rebounding team at 36%. Last night, Iowa State held them well under that average at a 22% offensive rebounding rate--a rate that would be one of the 20 worst in the country if averaged over the...
  16. M

    *** Official Kansas State vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    On the low rebounds, I do think there's a real strategy in letting the posts box out to keep their guys off the boards and let the guards fly in to actually grab the ball. I feel pretty confident in saying that Gilbert wouldn't have had 13 rebounds without the work by the big men against KSU's...
  17. M

    *** Official Kansas State vs #23 IOWA STATE Game(Day) Thread ***

    I think the issue with that comparison is that **** is a significantly better athlete, which gives him a higher ceiling as a well-rounded scorer. I think if we're talking about recent comparisons, the better comp for MM is Doug McDermott, who was still a lottery pick, but only after four college...
  18. M

    NBA: ***2023-24 NBA season***

    I agree that perimeter defense is the problem, but I think it's perfectly fine to place at least as much blame on Griffin for not being willing or able to adapt to the personnel. It's a bit crazy, but the Bucks' defensive rating with Lillard on-court is actually better than their rating with...
  19. M

    NBA: ***2023-24 NBA season***

    I don't necessarily disagree, but my understanding (from seeing takes from people who know more than me) is also that they've also attempted some changes in their defensive scheme that have failed and are at least part of the reason for the worse defense, even beyond the worse perimeter defenders.
  20. M

    RECRUITING: Iowa State earns commitment from Army WR transfer

    It's definitely a bit tough to tell. But as someone else said, we can probably feel great about his run blocking even without seeing any highlights of it. For his receiving--I'm not sure I've seen anyone say it, but he led Army in receiving yards in 3 straight years (including this year playing...
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