Bracketology 2024

[BillBrasky4Cy]

This is from The Athletic's most recent bracket projection this morning. I feel like this would be the monkey's paw version of getting to play in Omaha.
View attachment 123623

FAU would abuse Nebby

 

[WastedTalent]

Yes we can play Marquettee, but if they get a 2 and we get a 3 seed. That meeting would be in the Detroit or a Sweet 16 matchup.

We aren't a 6 seed and neither is Marquette, so only one of us can get Omaha.

Maybe Marquette prefers Indy too.

We are competing against:

1. Kansas
2. Marquette
3. Wisconsin
4. Illinois

Only 2 of the 5 can get Omaha

Baylor as well

 

[WastedTalent]

This is from The Athletic's most recent bracket projection this morning. I feel like this would be the monkey's paw version of getting to play in Omaha.
View attachment 123623

Highly unlikely Nebraska gets Omaha.

Only chance maybe would be if they were a 10, and KU was the 2.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

So we want Baylor to win at KU on Saturday? It's maybe too early to look at tiebreakers in the Big 12 standings, but with the unbalanced schedules, we're locked into a h2h tiebreaker over KU.

But also, tie breakers really only matter for first place, otherwise it's only for Big 12 tournament seeding. I'm not sure the ncaa committee will put alot of weight on one h2h matchup.

All things considered I think we want KU to keep losing. Whether we finish second or third we need to stay above KU to essentially lock up Omaha. It would be ideal for Iowa State to get Omaha and KU not just from the standpoint of ticket availability.

 

[clone52]

Highly unlikely Nebraska gets Omaha

Not if it's the closest site to them as an 11 seed. No protection in the criteria preventing that.

 

[ClubCy]

This is from The Athletic's most recent bracket projection this morning. I feel like this would be the monkey's paw version of getting to play in Omaha.
View attachment 123623

Wouldn’t be an Iowa State postseason if they aren’t playing in someone’s backyard.

 

[LLCoolCY]

This is from The Athletic's most recent bracket projection this morning. I feel like this would be the monkey's paw version of getting to play in Omaha.
View attachment 123623

With the disclaimer that it is waaaay to early to put any stock in potential bracket matchups the committee does like to have game narratives to draw eyes. Fred getting Nebby to the tourney and having to face his the college he starred for and coach would get the national time slot. It would be a good draw for ISU to get to the sweet 16 but personally I'd rather not face Fred in the tourney just for the forced storylines.

 

[cyfan92]

My first site location preferences ranked

1. Omaha
2. Memphis
3. Salt Lake City - Would be $$$$ but possible skiing on off days would be ELITE
4. Indianapolis
5. Pittsburgh
6. Charlotte
7. Spokane
8. Brooklyn

Spokane and Brooklyn was really suck

 

[ZRF]

I don't think its too preposterous. Iowa States non-con was always going to hurt us some. We juiced our NET and predictive metrics blowing out one of the weakest schedules in the country and are taking care of business in conference play against elite competition. But even with the conference gauntlet our SOR is 42nd. Wisconsin and Alabama are #2 and #3

In Q1&2
ISU 6-5
Alabama 7-7
Wisconsin 10-7

Depending on what you like more you could very reasonably argue any order of the 3, but again, I don't think its really outrageous for us to be in the same tier.

I'm not directing this at you but it demonstrates people are lazy to look further that poorly defined metrics.

In general I like the idea of quads but the opponents and wins themselves still need to be evaluated. Beating KU and Houston, regardless of location, are better wins than either of those teams have. We have stronger road wins. Wisconsin had piled up a bunch of wins against low quality Q1 teams. How exactly is MSU a Q1 team? They blew out Baylor, a win I don't want to take away from, but when looking at both teams schedules and performance it clearly was abberational...for both teams.

Wisconsin SOS is massively overrated and when you dig deeper, which isn't even that deep, it's easy to see they are a poser. They have no business being anything better than a 6 seed.

Alabama I get...to a degree. But they lack a lot of top tier wins and wins on the road. It think they are a 4 seed, maybe a low 3. But when you look at the win quality ours is better. Thats regardless of the **** teams we played at home for most of the non-con.

 

[MJ271]

Yes we can play Marquettee, but if they get a 2 and we get a 3 seed. That meeting would be in the Detroit or a Sweet 16 matchup.

We aren't a 6 seed and neither is Marquette, so only one of us can get Omaha.

Maybe Marquette prefers Indy too.

We are competing against:

1. Kansas
2. Marquette
3. Wisconsin
4. Illinois

Only 2 of the 5 can get Omaha

Only 2 of the 5 can get Omaha, but Marquette, Wisconsin, and Illinois are all closer to Indy than Omaha. So we can presume that the best of those 3 gets the second Indy spot (Purdue gets the first, of course). Then Iowa State just has to be ahead of 2 of the other 4.

 

[cyclones500]

The #1 overall seed has the option of choosing their 1st/2nd round site and regional assignment.

If Houston is #1 overall (for example), they could theoretically choose Omaha instead of Memphis even though Memphis is closer. And then the dominos would fall from there.

This is true.

I'm not sure if Houston will end up #1 overall (currently considered #3 in pecking order), but potential is there if UH happens to win B12 convincingly ... opportunity for it is there, but not easy.

Memphis seems like so much more natural regional fit I'd be surprised if Houston chose Omaha.

 

[Cyowa 14]

This is from The Athletic's most recent bracket projection this morning. I feel like this would be the monkey's paw version of getting to play in Omaha.
View attachment 123623

The committee does this all the time, they would be begging for ISU vs Nebraska in Omaha, the story lines write themselves. I would pick FAU to beat NU comfortably though fwiw

 

[alexssdean12]

@ChrisMWilliams @brentblum
You mentioned on WED's podcast not knowing how first weekend sites are assigned for the MBB NCAAs. Here is how it works. The Committee completes its 1-68 Seed List. Then the top 16 teams on the list are assigned, in order, from 1 thru 16 to the closest available venue with two teams to each of the 8 sites. Using Joe Lundardi's latest Seed List as depicted in this tweet, the top 16 teams would be assigned to the following sites in order:

Purdue-Indy; UConn-Brooklyn; Houston-Memphis; Tennessee-Charlotte; Arizona-SLC; North Carolina-Charlotte; Marquette-Indy; Kansas-Omaha; Alabama-Memphis; Wisconsin-Omaha; Illinois-Pittsburgh; Iowa State-Pittsburgh; Auburn-Brooklyn; Baylor-SLC; Duke-Spokane; Dayton-Spokane.

Now you can argue how Lunardi has this Seed List ranked but this depicts how locations are assigned.

ISU is competing with KU, Marquette, Wisconsin, Illinois and possibly Baylor for the two top slots at Omaha. The higher ranked of Marquette, Wisconsin or Illinois will likely go to Indy. The other two teams would then compete with KU and ISU for the slots at Omaha.

Anyone want to try and map this out using bracket matrix?

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

LMAO Lunardi still has Iowa State as a 4 and Wisconsin as a 3.

 

[NENick]

According to cykadelic2: "Bracketing Principles (e.g. no potential first weekend matchup vs a conference member that you have already played twice)."

So ISU could play Kansas in the round of 32. If that's accurate, the unbalanced conference schedule changes possibilities a bit.

 

[SolterraCyclone]

LMAO Lunardi still has Iowa State as a 4 and Wisconsin as a 3.

ISU just needs to keep winning and we should pass them pretty easily. Their schedule is really bad the rest of the way.

Only a chance for two more quality wins (IL at home and at Purdue. Both happen in March). Their next 5 games are against non-tourney teams, but some potential land mines (tomorrow at Rutgers and at Iowa ).

We still have 6 games against tourney teams left (not counting the Big 12 Tournament). TCU at home, OU at home, BYU at home, Texas Tech at home, at Houston, and at Cincinnati. We win a handful of those and we should vault over Wisconsin

 

[bosco]

So we want Baylor to win at KU on Saturday? It's maybe too early to look at tiebreakers in the Big 12 standings, but with the unbalanced schedules, we're locked into a h2h tiebreaker over KU.

But also, tie breakers really only matter for first place, otherwise it's only for Big 12 tournament seeding. I'm not sure the ncaa committee will put alot of weight on one h2h matchup.

I thought about this. We want KU to win and then BU to beat Houston. KU still plays at Houston and BU.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

The committee does this all the time, they would be begging for ISU vs Nebraska in Omaha, the story lines write themselves. I would pick FAU to beat NU comfortably though fwiw

The bracketing has been done by computers for years. Any and all matchups are simply random.

 

[cyclones500]

Anyone want to try and map this out using bracket matrix?

http://www.bracketmatrix.com/

I could take a general swing at it.

EDIT: Actually, I might not have time right now (but I'd be willing to look later).

 

[Cyowa 14]

The bracketing has been done by computers for years. Any and all matchups are simply random.

You just keep telling yourself that.

Note: I guarantee you are right, just seems to be 1 or 2 matchups in the first or second round where it's conveniently a must see matchup