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When do you think you will buy a 100% pure electric vehicle?

When will you buy a 100% pure electric vehicle?

  • Already Own One

    Votes: 39 5.5%

  • In the next year

    Votes: 7 1.0%

  • Between 1-5 years

    Votes: 128 18.1%

  • 6-10 years

    Votes: 169 23.9%

  • 10+ years or never

    Votes: 363 51.4%
  • Total voters
    706
dmclone said:
I dumbed it because I felt like this was a dumb question to ask.

"How many battery packs does a EV go through in its life"

It's the same as asking how many engines does a car go through in it's life.

What's a "life"? If I lose 30 miles of range over 100k miles, do you think the battery needs replaced? If I use a quart of oil in my gas vehicle once it hits 100k miles, do I need to rebuild the engine.

You're right, it's more risky to buy an EV than a Toyota Camry.

The only real long term data I've seen has been on 2013 Tesla Model S that are 10+ years old and 8.5% of those had their battery replaced. What I don't know is how many miles they have on average, when they were replaced, were they under warranty, has battery tech improved in the last 10 years, etc. If I look at the tesla forums, there are a LOT of 200k+ mile owners with their original batteries but maybe this is slanted, similar to toyota forums, IDK.

The original Model S warranty covered the battery and drive units for 8 years, unlimited mileage.
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"....the same as asking how many engines does....."

I disagree. We have 120 years of history for combustion engines in every known condition and very little, if any, definitive history of evs in various conditions. .

The complicated factors of evs: location, weather extremes, metro environment or rural use, access to maintenance, average drive time, etc....
 
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BCClone said:
That warranty is now either 100 or 150k and no longer unlimited. Like I said, the readings I've seen have shown anywhere from 100 to 300k miles can be expected before batteries need to be replaced. That is a broad range and appears to be more guessing. We have good data on how long an engine/drive train will last on an ICE since they have been around a long time and advancements/maintenance knowledge has improved, as I'm sure it will with EVs.

Without decent knowledge of expected battery life, it is nearly impossible to compare true cost per mile since we don't know if it will be 3 EV's to 1 ICE or the opposite or somewhere inbetween.
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Beyond the life ratings, the method of end of life is important. Are batteries prone to just not able to take a charge and are suddenly unusable, or do they lose capacity gradually? For most people, the gradual reduction is easy to handle and you decide when to replace the car based on that. If batteries tend to just go bad, similar to smaller Li-ion batteries, that’s more of a problem.
 
dmclone said:
I dumbed it because I felt like this was a dumb question to ask.

"How many battery packs does a EV go through in its life"

It's the same as asking how many engines does a car go through in it's life.

What's a "life"? If I lose 30 miles of range over 100k miles, do you think the battery needs replaced? If I use a quart of oil in my gas vehicle once it hits 100k miles, do I need to rebuild the engine.

You're right, it's more risky to buy an EV than a Toyota Camry.

The only real long term data I've seen has been on 2013 Tesla Model S that are 10+ years old and 8.5% of those had their battery replaced. What I don't know is how many miles they have on average, when they were replaced, were they under warranty, has battery tech improved in the last 10 years, etc. If I look at the tesla forums, there are a LOT of 200k+ mile owners with their original batteries but maybe this is slanted, similar to toyota forums, IDK.

The original Model S warranty covered the battery and drive units for 8 years, unlimited mileage.
Click to expand...
So just for context, the industry is considering a battery failed when it gets to 70% of it's original capacity. The curves showing battery aging are pretty steep for the first year or so and goes really flat after that. The aging of the batteries aren't really mileage dependent it's more charge cycle dependent. The expected life from what I've been seeing is 3000-4000 charge cycles (1 charge cycle = 45kWh battery discharges 45kW then charges 45kW). So if you fully discharge and then recharge your battery every single day (nobody does this), you should get at least 8 years out of your battery as a worst case, super extreme corner condition before you hit that loss of 30% of your capacity. Now there are other factors in how long the battery will last like storage conditions (hot is bad), or how often you DC fast charge (bad).
 
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Mr.G.Spot said:
"....the same as asking how many engines does....."

I disagree. We have 120 years of history for combustion engines in every known condition and very little, if any, definitive history of evs in various conditions. .

The complicated factors of evs: location, weather extremes, metro environment or rural use, access to maintenance, average drive time, etc....
Click to expand...
You're right, it sounds like a standard gas or diesel engine vehicle would be best for you. Like it's been said numerous time, everyone has a different use case. If 300k mile reliability is the most important thing to you, there would be little reason to buy anything other than something like a Toyota Corolla. Right now, an EV is a riskier choice. For someone like myself, who will never own a car for more than 8 years, it really makes no difference.
 
4690 Miles on the tesla. I've been told that degradation is high in the beginning, not sure how accurate. It wasn't connected for a little over 1,000 miles but it looks like 13 charging cycles for 3,446 miles?

battery.png
 
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mramseyISU said:
So just for context, the industry is considering a battery failed when it gets to 70% of it's original capacity. The curves showing battery aging are pretty steep for the first year or so and goes really flat after that. The aging of the batteries aren't really mileage dependent it's more charge cycle dependent. The expected life from what I've been seeing is 3000-4000 charge cycles (1 charge cycle = 45kWh battery discharges 45kW then charges 45kW). So if you fully discharge and then recharge your battery every single day (nobody does this), you should get at least 8 years out of your battery as a worst case, super extreme corner condition before you hit that loss of 30% of your capacity. Now there are other factors in how long the battery will last like storage conditions (hot is bad), or how often you DC fast charge (bad).
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I think that helps explain a lot. Many people think that a failed battery means their car won’t run and they’ll have to get it repaired with a high cost. But for most people without a long commute, 70% is more than enough to get through the day.

This is especially important when talking about the used car market. Seeing the long term trends of battery failure modes (degradation vs complete sudden failure) will be good to have confidence that a car with 150K miles is still reliable even if it doesn’t provide that full range it once had. Wonder if there will regulations on how to measure that for used cars in the future where the dealer could present a current range estimate based on a standardized procedure.
 
I've chimed in a couple times here & there, but have read this entire thread. The discourse has been a decent source of entertainment.

I voted (and would still vote) "10+ years or never" but firmly believe the rise of electric vehicles is a good thing. Options and emerging technology helps to breed innovation and competition which is ultimately good for us, the consumer.

Everyone just get whatever is best for you/your needs. I don't understand why this topic always becomes a battle of ICE vs BEV. Both can exist and have their own market.

As an aside, we're contemplating getting a fully electric Moke for tooling around town and running out to the beach. But I'd say that's more like a street legal golf cart than a true car. But they sure look fun.
 
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Cyclonscin said:
I've chimed in a couple times here & there, but have read this entire thread. The discourse has been a decent source of entertainment.

I voted (and would still vote) "10+ years or never" but firmly believe the rise of electric vehicles is a good thing. Options and emerging technology helps to breed innovation and competition which is ultimately good for us, the consumer.

Everyone just get whatever is best for you/your needs. I don't understand why this topic always becomes a battle of ICE vs BEV. Both can exist and have their own market.

As an aside, we're contemplating getting a fully electric Moke for tooling around town and running out to the beach. But I'd say that's more like a street legal golf cart than a true car. But they sure look fun.
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I don't understand why people get so butt hurt over BEV vs ICE (hell throw in hybrids too). They've both got use cases where they're better than the other. After spending the last half a year working on the BEV side of things I think they're really interesting for a whole bunch of applications and there are still a whole bunch of things where an ICE is still the best option. There's no such thing as a perfect solution for everybody.
 
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BCClone said:
How many battery packs does a EV go through in its life?
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You are going to be going through a **** load of these...

knowledge-batteries-feature.jpg
 
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Sorry if I've already showed these, but here is another graph.

The Tesla Supercharger in OP was an instance of me thinking I was going to charge there without listening to the software. Then realizing "You're being stupid" and unplugging....so 1 kwh. Walnut Street was probably a free hotel charger. Ikea was a free charger that was the slowest charger in history.

The times I charged 90+% was when I was planning a road trip.

This charging doesn't include the trip home from Naperville, a round trip to Omaha, and another round trip to Mason City. Also, the Bethany cost is not correct. All of these outages were user error.

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BCClone said:
It would be interesting to take an EV total cost and an ICE total cost and break down what the cost per mile was on each over the life of a vehicle. Although in the end it would still be a little guessing since things like knowing electric cost/gas costs will be; things like that.
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I think it will wildly vary depending where you live. Gas has settled down to the “low” price of 4.80 in SoCal and diesel is over $6. Electric equivalent is around 1.30.

I’m positive that getting a new non hybrid ICE isn’t a money saver and for nearly every type of vehicle there is at minimum a comparable hybrid if not an ev where the cost to get hybrid pays for itself.

Somewhere with $3 gas and higher electric probably doesn’t have that math.
 
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clonebb said:
The stories regarding EVs not charging in the cold show this is not a Midwest vechicle. People actually abandoning their Tesla’s because they can’t charge them.
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I’ve never had an issue.

It’s hyperbole, and the real issue is production lines have a small amount of inconsistencies.
 
WhoISthis said:
I’ve never had an issue.

It’s hyperbole, and the real issue is production lines have a small amount of inconsistencies.
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Some guy called Murph & Andy yesterday asking about this kind of trying to create a panic and Andy just calmly mentioned they've had a lot of Teslas coming and going from the studio parking lot.

Like others have said, they're building up this fantasy where ICE cars have never had issues in -20 degrees. The beater car I had in high school was basically a useless hunk of metal below 15 degrees, nobody went into hysterics about it.
 
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