This is well laid out and one of the more interesting statistical contrasts we'll see this season. Another is TCU who scores a ton of points at the rim, and we are #1 in preventing points at the rim.
I'm very curious to see whether we adapt our defense or not - specifically not doubling or trapping as often. I tend to think, especially when you have a VERY strong defensive identity, that you can't adjust it for one game and play with the same intensity. You are going against learned patterns and habits - if you're thinking you're a step slow. But it will be fascinating to watch. I think we should just double down and say " you aren't scoring in the paint, period. If you can complete 3 straight swing passes without turning the ball over, have the open 3" and see if they can make 16+ in the game. 16 is their season high, but they've made at least 14 8 times.
There's one other interesting contrast. Their defense is very good (7th in efficiency), and their key strengths is not giving up points off of steals and offensive rebounds. Our offensive rebounding is okay, not great, but we are #1 in points off of steals. Their loss at Cincinnati is the only game in which they've turned the ball over >20% of possessions. The only 3 games we've not forced turnovers on >20% of possessions are our 3 losses. Our defense forcing turnovers and then scoring off of them is the absolutely key to the game, IMO, much more important than 3s (unless they can't miss).
The other thing in our favor is that haven't faced a defense like ours yet (they host Houston, the only other defense "like ours" next Tuesday). The only Top 30 defense they've faced is Cincinnati, a game they turned the ball over a bunch and lost by 11.
The metric site I like best, Haslametrics, has the game 73-70 BYU, with a significantly faster pace than our first 3 conf games. I think 70 sounds like the key - if we can hold BYU under 70, I like our chances a lot. It will all come down to energy and intensity and translating that into forced turnovers. Other than DePaul, we haven't brought the intensity on the road. I think the that changes tonight and we win 70-62.