2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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- bracketology cyclones net quad rankings
Draft Kings curiously still has KU as the favorites yet Torrvik has KU finishing 9-9. That's quite a disagreement between the betting markets and the analytics.
Kansas +180
Houston +200
Baylor +600
BYU +1000
OU +1400
Texas Tech +1500
ISU +1900
TCU +2000
Texas +2500
Is there a way to take out a second mortgage and bet *against* Kansas?
The betting public probably moves towards Kansas. If you gave them +1500 odds, they'd get a TON Of action and the books would get hosed if Kansas pulls it off.
I wouldn't against KU winning the title but man, they don't have any sort of bench depth.
Curious if Tarvok or any of these rankings account for the "home cooking" that Kansas gets at Allen Fieldhouse?
Short answer is no.
Home teams are given an advantage in Torvik and KenPom, but it is a generic amount across all games in college basketball and doesn't adjust for the historic advantage of different home courts.
Hilton is worth the same as the Knapp Center.
Was watching that TCU game with a buddy and when KU went down he asked if he should put money on KU, which I replied absolutely. I then went on about how I wouldn't be surprised if KU got some sort of ridiculous call that went their way and sure enough, that flagrant 1 happened later on.
This is part of the delta between the models and Vegas. From a numbers perspective KU has shown some weakness. But those guys in the desert understand that KU only actually plays contested ball games on the road. At home it is scripted reality TV. That gives them an automatic 1 or two game lead against the other contenders who will typically slip up at home.
Refs are putting big money on KU, which is why they're the favorites.
Yeah, that is one small weakness in those models I don't quite understand.
It shouldn't be too hard to look at historical data by home venue on how much a team tends to overperform there compared to on the road and come up with some sort of bespoke factor.
I don't know this, but I would imagine Phog Allen would rate highly in such an analysis.
This is where I'm at.
Agree with @clone52 that KU to win the Big 12 is a very public play in the betting markets and in response that inflates their odds.
Could be wrong, and I haven't subscribed for a few years but I thought Kenpom used to have homecourt rankings and if memory serves both Phog and Hilton were in the top 10. I guess maybe they still weren't included in his overall model, but that would be kind of odd.
edited to add a link for a post Pomeroy made about home court.
Dude you don't just walk into Hamilton Gymnasium.
KenPom's "home court advantage" ranking really just reflects teams who don't play well on the road as it's comparing home vs road efficiency metrics.
His article was semi-interesting. Basically no home court advantage is drastically different from another based on a statistical analysis. Definitely feels like if you aren't winning by 8+ with 60 seconds to go you are most likely going to lose at the Phog, but I suppose its possible we are just cherry picking memories (also it helps KU that they are usually pretty loaded).
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The regular season conference race is always about the Floyd standings. Can't lose at home, win as many as you can on the road.
Tech, KSU, Baylor are +1 right now. BYU is -1, everyone else "good" is even. Including Houston and Texas (who did it the hard way).
Will 12-6 get a share of the title this year? 13-5 would probably not have to share.
I'm not calling us a Big 12 title contender but after next week's back to back road games we'll have one of the easier remaining schedules in the conference. Maybe the easiest. Our first 5 games are an absolute gauntlet.
Per ESPN, our current remaining schedule ranks 9th.
2024-25 Big 12 Men's College Basketball Power Index - ESPN
View the 2024-25 Big 12 conference Men's College Basketball power index on ESPN. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance for the season.
I think its just really hard to statistically measure relative home court advantage as plenty of teams are bad on the road.
The phog though is definitely a place where generally either you're up 10 with a minute or two to go or you lose.