2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread

[Sigmapolis]

Also something fun I noticed on Torvik...

ISU win expectation to start (this is about as low as it ever went) = 24.0%

ISU win expectation after Shead tied the game at 53 = 42.0%

ISU win expectation after Milan's ridiculous spin jumper = 78.8%

Milan first free throw = 93.5%

Milan second free throw = 97.4%

 

[NiceMarmot]

Before Big 12 play started, we had the most difficult conference SOS per Torvik. Going 1-1 starting at OU and Houston at home should be viewed as a positive. Remaining SOS is now 10th hardest in the league.

 

[1100011CS]

Doesn't mean much at this point but still... https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...nd-1-once-again-after-purdue-houston-stumble/

 

[CY9008]

Love to see it. BRE moving up from a preseason ranking of 635th best player up to 118th according to BPR

Not sure how freshman are initially graded, but also of note that Milan bumps up from 557 to 83

 

[nrg4isu]

Love to see it. BRE moving up from a preseason ranking of 635th best player up to 118th according to BPR

Not sure how freshman are initially graded, but also of note that Milan bumps up from 557 to 83

Not going to lie, I was looking for Lipsey on this list.

 

[rosshm16]

I'll be ecstatic if we finish 11-7 in the league and also shocked if KU finishes 10-8.

 

[CloniesForLife]

I'll be ecstatic if we finish 11-7 in the league and also shocked if KU finishes 10-8.

I get why the models have them at that. They're good but not great imo and not a lot of depth. But it's KU and Bill Self and they're going to win the league. Houston is good but they haven't gone through this gauntlet yet. And I think Baylor is #3

 

[Halincandenza]

Looking at the ACC on the metrics sites...yikes. There are like 3 good teams in that league.

 

[rosshm16]

I get why the models have them at that. They're good but not great imo and not a lot of depth. But it's KU and Bill Self and they're going to win the league. Houston is good but they haven't gone through this gauntlet yet. And I think Baylor is #3

Yes, I'm probably biased by KU winning the league for the last ~20 years or whatever. Agree they don't have a lot of depth by KU standards. Hopefully we get'em!

I'd also be surprised if Houston finished 15-3 and wins the league with a four-game margin. Maybe they'll only lose two more games from here out but I doubt that, I'm thinking more like 12-6 territory.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Yes, I'm probably biased by KU winning the league for the last ~20 years or whatever. Agree they don't have a lot of depth by KU standards. Hopefully we get'em!

I'd also be surprised if Houston finished 15-3 and wins the league with a four-game margin. Maybe they'll only lose two more games from here out but I doubt that, I'm thinking more like 12-6 territory.

13 wins by anybody guarantees at least a share.

 

[NoCreativity]

I'll be ecstatic if we finish 11-7 in the league and also shocked if KU finishes 10-8.

We really need to keep the focus on Saturday. Oklahoma State has really figured out how to beat us since TJ has been here.

 

[NWICY]

We really need to keep the focus on Saturday. Oklahoma State has really figured out how to beat us since TJ has been here.

I'm pretty sure the staff is doing it, TJ mentioned on the post game that OSU has had our number and we need to continue the momentum we have going.

 

[Clone309]

Somehow we have the best 5 man lineup

 

[madguy30]

I'm pretty sure the staff is doing it, TJ mentioned on the post game that OSU has had our number and we need to continue the momentum we have going.

Regardless of their own record they were a nightmare for physical matchups for ISU the last two years. From what I've seen it's not the case this time around.

But, ISU isn't good enough to just take care of business either. They'll need to play well.

 

[dahliaclone]

Doesn't mean much at this point but still... https://www.cbssports.com/college-b...nd-1-once-again-after-purdue-houston-stumble/

doesn't mean much agreed but I actually kinda like him and think he knows his stuff. I follow that post daily

 

[Sigmapolis]

I'll be ecstatic if we finish 11-7 in the league and also shocked if KU finishes 10-8.

The analytics engines just don't "love" the Jayhawks this year -- if "loving" them would be putting them in the top five in the country rather than in the ~15-20 range that most of them have.

Torvik has Houston a mile ahead of everybody on defense (the bright red dot at the top of the scatter) and Baylor ahead of everybody on offense (the green one off to the right on its own). Kansas is the light blue dot in the middle. Iowa State is the dark red one right above the Lawrence Beakers.



I get it -- they're good. Dickinson is a stud. Bill Self has done this so many times before it is hard to bet against them. But this doesn't look to be one of their more powerful teams so far, and Houston is a strong challenger to their rule they haven't seen in some time despite their rather enjoyable loss last night.

Torvik really doesn't think KU is bringing home a Big 12 banner this year, though...



Some very clear tiers in the conference right now...



GOD TIER
---
Houston

EXCELLENT TIER
---
Baylor
Iowa State
Texas Tech
Kansas
BYU

TWEENER TIER
---
Oklahoma

VERY GOOD TIER
---
Cincinnati
TCU
Texas
Kansas State

MEH
---
UCF

BAD
---
Oklahoma State

AWFUL
---
West Virginia

 

[CyPunch]

Regardless of their own record they were a nightmare for physical matchups for ISU the last two years. From what I've seen it's not the case this time around.

But, ISU isn't good enough to just take care of business either. They'll need to play well.

Last year their defense was top 10. This year they are 73rd.

Offensively their virtually the same team (not very good again).

That said, classic let down spot Saturday. Hopefully last years results can be used as motivational factors to take care of business.

 

[KennyPratt42]

For my money you can probably consolidate to 5 tiers:

Houston


Baylor
Iowa St.
Texas Tech
Kansas
BYU
Oklahoma


Cincinnati
TCU
Texas
Kansas St.


UCF
Oklahoma St.


West Virginia

 

[exCYtable]

Win on Saturday and we should be ranked at 13-3

 

[bawbie]

Last year their defense was top 10. This year they are 73rd.

Offensively their virtually the same team (not very good again).

That said, classic let down spot Saturday. Hopefully last years results can be used as motivational factors to take care of business.

Also Avery Anderson, Cyclone Killer, is now in a TCU uniform. I swear that guy made every big shot against us the last couple years