2023-2024 MBB computer projections thread
- Thread starter Sigmapolis
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- bracketology cyclones net quad rankings
Not much new to report on the KenPom end, either.
Up to #13 in KenPom
Offense has taken a big jump in #s as were up to 40th in AdjO
Up to #13 in KenPom
Offense has taken a big jump in #s as were up to 40th in AdjO
ISU metric rankings shown on the teamsheets given to the NCAA tournament committee:
Quad rankings:
Net - 6th
SOS - 235th
Remaining SOS - 2nd! (For everyone complaining about not playing anybody in the non con)
Resume:
KPI - 87th
SOR - 52nd
Avg- 69.5th
Predictive rankings:
BPI - 6th
KP - 13th
Avg - 9.5th
Additional predictive rankings: *
TR - 6th
massey - 25th
barttorvik - 14th
haslametrics - 5th
colley - 58th
evanmiya - 14th
*Not sure if they replace Sagarin with a different advanced metric platform but here are some other rankings in that vein
Polls (not shown but fun to check):
AP - 30th (24 votes)
Coaches - tied 33rd (12 votes)
Reddit - 28th (175 votes)
Bracket Matrix - (2nd) 9th seed
Quad rankings:
Net - 6th
SOS - 235th
Remaining SOS - 2nd! (For everyone complaining about not playing anybody in the non con)
Resume:
KPI - 87th
SOR - 52nd
Avg- 69.5th
Predictive rankings:
BPI - 6th
KP - 13th
Avg - 9.5th
Additional predictive rankings: *
TR - 6th
massey - 25th
barttorvik - 14th
haslametrics - 5th
colley - 58th
evanmiya - 14th
*Not sure if they replace Sagarin with a different advanced metric platform but here are some other rankings in that vein
Polls (not shown but fun to check):
AP - 30th (24 votes)
Coaches - tied 33rd (12 votes)
Reddit - 28th (175 votes)
Bracket Matrix - (2nd) 9th seed
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They just lost their best bench player for the year which will hurt them. The metrics love them right now but I have a feeling once they hit conference play you will them start to fall in the metrics. They have struggled with some so so teams already. I don't think they are the #1 team at all or close to it.
What is this madness?
lol.. I just changed the numbers from last time I posted. Forgot to change the ordinals (word I just learned). I fixed it now, thanks
This site recreates the actual sheets given to the committee...
https://www.warrennolan.com/basketball/2024/team-net-sheet?team=Iowa-State
"SAG" on that site is #1 for everybody because it's not been updated or definitely replaced.
So, we're reliant on BPI and KenPom for now. Maybe something like Torvik will replace it.
Warrennolan is great. Not sure where they are getting their KPI numbers from though. We are 87th and that's coming from https://faktorsports.com/ (Kevin's own site).
Maybe they don't update it constantly? Scrape it once per week or something?
I think Pomeroy's numbers take some of last season into account too? It could be that we're finally starting those terribly low offensive numbers off the tail end of 2022-23.
Filtering out last season's influence on Torrvik, Iowa State is 8th overall and #27 in AdjO and #5 in AdjD. 67th in Adj Tempo
Pomeroy still has some of last year until around the 3rd week of January.
Player Efficiency Ranking YTD:
1. Lipsey 27.4
2. Rob Jones 23.6
3. King 23.2
4. Gilbert 22.0
5. Momcilovic 17.6
6. Curt Jones 17.3
7. Omaha 16.5
8. Watson 15.5
9. Paveletzke 13.2
Box score +/-
1. Lipsey 14.7
2. Rob Jones 9.6
3. Gilbert 7.7
4. Momcilovic 7.3
5. Curt Jones 7.1
6. Tre King 6.1
7. Watson 6.1
8. Paveletzke 2.5
9. Omaha 1.9
Bart Torvik's custom Points over Replacement rating for those with qualifying minutes:
1. Lipsey 27.4
2. Rob Jones 23.6
3. King 23.2
4. Gilbert 22.0
5. Momcilovic 17.6
6. Curt Jones 17.3
7. Omaha 16.5
8. Watson 15.5
9. Paveletzke 13.2
Box score +/-
1. Lipsey 14.7
2. Rob Jones 9.6
3. Gilbert 7.7
4. Momcilovic 7.3
5. Curt Jones 7.1
6. Tre King 6.1
7. Watson 6.1
8. Paveletzke 2.5
9. Omaha 1.9
Bart Torvik's custom Points over Replacement rating for those with qualifying minutes:
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Surprised Pavs efficiency is so low. What all goes into that?
This makes sense. This year's team just has a way different feel than TJ's first two seasons. Outside of the Orlando trip, the offense has been killing it, and it's not just because they've been beating up on the Q4 non-conference opponents.
Interesting. He doesn't stuff the stat sheet but I also don't recall him turning the ball over or fouling. Doesn't feel like he's missing a ton of shots either
Only thing I can figure is that his field goal % is a bit weak (43.5) and free throw % (68.2). He has only turned it over 9 times (to 20 assists) and committed 7 fouls.