With Oklahoma and Texas gone, will we finally see a 10 win regular season?

[Fishhead]

There’s always stupid NIL, but it seems to me that the odds of that happening have increased exponentially.

And by the way, don’t let the door hit you in the ass OK and TX. Worst of luck to you in the SEC.

 

[longdriveforsom]

The chances will be higher but not by as much as most think, the new big 12 won't be that much easier. Oklahoma State and Kansas state is still here, Kansas is getting better every year, UCF could be a force in a few years and then you get the new schools. Utah will be solid, Arizona is on the rise and we'll see if Colorado can figure things out.

That said we'll have a decent shot at 10 wins next season if we can keep everyone out of the transfer portal

 

[BCClone]

Will we still have Texas refs? That is a bigger question

 

[Mr Janny]

Look at Okie State's schedule, this year. Replace Oklahoma with Utah, and it's fairly representative of what a typical schedule in the new Big 12 could look like, going forward. Ten wins won't be our norm, but there's no reason to think it's out of reach.

 

[ca4cy]

Maybe, if we ever figure out that the season starts in September, not October.

 

[Daserop]

No. Our offensive play calling won't allow for this to occur

 

[jbhtexas]

The 5* recruiting juggernauts will be gone. On the other hand Arizona is 8-3 this year. Utah is 7-4 this year, and they have been a very good team for the previous 5 seasons (9/10 wins except for the COVID year). These are not slouches.

If KU can beat Cinci next week, 8 Big 12 teams will finish with winning conference records. The bottom of the Big 12 was not good this year, and the better teams feasted on the bottom teams. I don't see any reason to exepct signficiant drop-offs at KSU, KU, OkSU, TT and WVU. So far this year, ISU is 1-4 against P5 teams with winning conference records.

Apart from a philosophy change on offense to where ISU adapts early and tries to score more in the first half if they can't run the ball, I think ISU's ceiling is 7-8 wins. If there is no change, Campbell is not going to "out-Iowa" Kirk, so that game will continue to be a loss. More Ohio-type losses are going to sneak in with the other two "easy" non-con games if ISU allows those teams to hang around into the second half. Same in the Big 12. The conference is just too balanced to give up a half of football before the offense starts looking for other means to score if the primary pound-it-up-the-middle plan gets stopped.

 

[NoCreativity]

No, we still won't beat Iowa as long as Ferentz is around.

We've also beaten Texas alot lately and still aren't anywhere close to 10 wins those years.

 

[stewart092284]

No. I don't think so. Because its hard to win 10 games a year with the way we play offense which is fairly conservative.

Because unless you are going to have either A) A dominant defense year in year out and or B) can just physically dominate everyone or the vast majority of everyone you play

its hard to win every game. It puts you in just about every game, keeps them all competitive. So that's the attraction.

But it also means your attention to detail has to be so incredibly precise each and every week that when the reality of life happens and a young man makes a mistake or two - more often than not - it ends up resulting in a loss.

So Long as the Kansas boys are the head coaches + Utah, plus probably an improving Colorado, and I'd expect Okie State to remin viable along with at least 1-2 of the newcomers (UCF, Cincy, Houston, BYU) are going to get better as time goes...


no. I honestly don't know what changes for us. Except that our chances of losing 50-20 are probably gone. We should be competitive against everyone. But since we had beat Texas and Oklahoma a few teams anyways - I don't see where the extra wins come from.

Being a slow tempo conservative team keeps you in every game. It also means, you're going to have 1-2 too many turnovers or with the new clock rules might just run out of time if you miss a couple too many tackles or give up a big play.

Until we have an ability to win games 38-35 when the situation arises - I don't see 10 wins as a reality. It just incredibly hard to win 10 games 24-21 or 17-14. Iowa hasn't done it every year and they play in the Big 10 west.

If you told me we'd marry Kansas' offensive approach with our defense then yes, I think 10 wins is a possibility. But a conservative offense with a strong defense , then I think 7-8 regular season wins is probably the ceiling. Which is still plenty good. But does probably keep you from double digits because you've got to be able to win games in a variety of ways to get to 10 wins.

And right now - we're essentially only able to win games where the defense is able to hold people in check. Which again, nothing wrong with that. But if you can only win one way, then one those days where your reliable unit is shaky... it makes it hard to have those truly special seasons

 

[Gunnerclone]

Just depends on the schedule. We’re going to miss a bunch of teams all of the time. I’m glad they didn’t pair us up with KSU so now we can miss them sometimes as well.

 

[joefrog]

The 5* recruiting juggernauts will be gone. On the other hand Arizona is 8-3 this year. Utah is 7-4 this year, and they have been a very good team for the previous 5 seasons (9/10 wins except for the COVID year). These are not slouches.

If KU can beat Cinci next week, 8 Big 12 teams will finish with winning conference records. The bottom of the Big 12 was not good this year, and the better teams feasted on the bottom teams. I don't see any reason to exepct signficiant drop-offs at KSU, KU, OkSU, TT and WVU. So far this year, ISU is 1-4 against P5 teams with winning conference records.

Apart from a philosophy change on offense to where ISU adapts early and tries to score more in the first half if they can't run the ball, I think ISU's ceiling is 7-8 wins. If there is no change, Campbell is not going to "out-Iowa" Kirk, so that game will continue to be a loss. More Ohio-type losses are going to sneak in with the other two "easy" non-con games if ISU allows those teams to hang around into the second half. Same in the Big 12. The conference is just too balanced to give up a half of football before the offense starts looking for other means to score if the primary pound-it-up the middle plan gets stopped.

Apart from a philosophy change on offense to where ISU adapts early and tries to score more in the first half if they can't run the ball, I think ISU's ceiling is 7-8 wins

JBH nailed it here.

We saw with Purdy's class the shortcomings of this staff, now that teams know how to play ISU.

New coordinators may help, but don't move the needle much if you play every first half just to get to halftime within one score.

Looks like we'll be a 4 to 7 win team under Campbell, so about what ISU would be if Ferentz coached there with our resources.

 

[Cyhig]

Look at Okie State's schedule, this year. Replace Oklahoma with Utah, and it's fairly representative of what a typical schedule in the new Big 12 could look like, going forward. Ten wins won't be our norm, but there's no reason to think it's out of reach.

Let’s look at Iowa State’s 2023 vs 2024 conference opponents (current Saragin rank shown in parentheses. As a note, Iowa State is #25.

Played in 2023, not in 2024:
Oklahoma (8), Texas (9), Oklahoma State (24), TCU (29), BYU (73),

Will play in 2024, did not in 2023:
Utah (18), Texas Tech (30), UCF (34), West Virginia (38), Houston (78)

Replace 8 with 18; 9 with 30; 24 with 34; 29 with 38,l; and 73 with 78. The schedule does lighten up which should lead to 1-2 extra wins. Will they get to 10 wins? Hard to say… they have to be undefeated in non conference play first. But 8 wins on a regular basis is quite possible with an occasional run at the conference title game in the new big 12

Edit: the more I think about it, a 10 win season should eventually happen with the new big 12 teams. iSU goes 3-0 in no conference, 6-3 in conference (quite doable), and wins the bowl game.

 

[joefrog]

Just depends on the schedule. We’re going to miss a bunch of teams all of the time. I’m glad they didn’t pair us up with KSU so now we can miss them sometimes as well.

It is a tragedy that one of the longest running annual rivalries will end.

 

[clonedude]

Not with the current offense.

 

[Gunnerclone]

It is a tragedy that one of the longest running annual rivalries will end.

Meh. We already have a top rival and it’s not KSU.

 

[Cyhig]

Apart from a philosophy change on offense to where ISU adapts early and tries to score more in the first half if they can't run the ball, I think ISU's ceiling is 7-8 wins

JBH nailed it here.

We saw with Purdy's class the shortcomings of this staff, now that teams know how to play ISU.

New coordinators may help, but don't move the needle much if you play every first half just to get to halftime within one score.

Looks like we'll be a 4 to 7 win team under Campbell, so about what ISU would be if Ferentz coached there with our resources.

But Campbell has already won 9 games in a year

 

[BWRhasnoAC]

Campbell coaches like we always have a lead. Unless it's panic time we're not taking chances.

 

[stewart092284]

Just depends on the schedule. We’re going to miss a bunch of teams all of the time. I’m glad they didn’t pair us up with KSU so now we can miss them sometimes as well.

Right but are we going to get to a point where the offense can carry the defense? IDK. Because how many times in 8 years has that happened?

And that's just what it takes to win 10 games a year unless you are in the Big 10 west.

I have no doubt we'll have winning league seasons.
We'll go to bowl games and we'll win bowl games. We'll win 7ish games a year probably. Maybe 8.

And that's very very good.

But I also don't know what's different from now. Because we do that now and have done that now.


No matter who you play - if you look around the country - not many in any conference can win 10 games when they can only win one way. North Carolina has an NFL quarterback. Very high pick NFL quarterback. 8 wins, 9 wins, 6 wins, 8 wins.

OIe Miss is probably the exception. 9, 8, 10. Probably 10 this year.

But other than that? Oregon State's a really good team - couldn't play with Washington and score with them. They got out of their comfort zone. Probably will win 8 games with an elite offensive line and running game.

Its just hard to win 10 games. And there's nothing wrong with that. But I just - IDK. I have a hard time seeing at

 

[stewart092284]

But Campbell has already won 9 games in a year

Yes however - TBH - that was the covid year - and we also didn't play Iowa.

And that's why I say the ceiling is under 10. And in that year to what I said earlier, we won two games where the defense gave up over 30 points (38-31) and (37-30). Thats why we got to 9. Because we could 45-0, could win 23-20 and won 38-31.

Until we get an offense that can do that - no matter we play - getting to 9 or 10 wins is going to very very hard

 

[FarminCy]

ISU has beat Texas plenty in the last 10 years and OU twice. Those two schools have not been the reason ISU has not gotten to 10 wins. The same challenges will still exist.