Holy ****! Stroman opts out!!!
This is HUGE for the Cubs. Save $23.5 million. What a sweet gift.
This is HUGE for the Cubs. Save $23.5 million. What a sweet gift.
***Official 2023 Chicago Cubs Thread***
- Thread starter BigJCy
- Start date
Very surprising given there is a lot of quality starting pitching on the free agent market but this is best case scenario for the Cubs. Can pick up Hendricks option and be aggressive with spending now
Should be able to add an ace for not much more then what we're saving. Would open us up to trade for Soto 30 mil, resign Bellinger 25 ish and add a couple good relievers hopefully.
Heyward is 22 mil coming off the books as well.
Be great to have someone take a flyer on Smyly (11 mil).
Getting Hendricks and not Stroman screams Ohtani.
2024 rotation
1.Steele
2.Taillon
3.Hendricks
4.Assad
5.Wicks
Long relief Wesneski
AAA Horton
2025
1.Ohtani
2.Steele
3.Taillon
4.Horton
5. Wicks/Assad/Wesneski
I know we'd like to get another ace for 2024 but Ohtani and Bellinger long term gives us an awesome core offensively. That rotation would be fine (you can add a rental at the trade deadline if not) if you solidify the bullpen.
Cubs won't sign both Ohtani and Bellinger and if I were to place a bet I doubt they sign either of them unfortunately. I think Ohtani is likely headed to Seattle unless someone comes in with some crazy money and a situation that is attractive to him. Hoping to be surprised with the FO spending on top free agents but have been left disappointed too many times in the past need to see them start writing some checks first. They did spend on Swanson long term last year and took a 1 year deal on Belli I guess.
Dumping Stroman allows them to retain Bellinger and add another big contract. With all the young talent coming as starters they'll look for a second ace to pair with Steele rather than another Taillon type.
FO will be gunning for stars they can pair with the ton of young talent soon to arrive. I don't know who they'll get but they will be players. Fading in September showed they need more alphas.
Cubs are currently at $168 million going towards luxury tax.
CBT is set at $237 next year.
Financial penalties really aren't that meaningful/noticeable for big markets until you're $40 million over ($277 Million)
Historically, the Cubs try to have about $10 million before hitting any tiers so they can make offseason trades.
If they want to go $267 million, that would give them about $100 million to spend this offseason.
Major players and likely salaries via MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections but possibly traded, OR The Athletic FA projections (Jim Bowden / Tim Britton), OR rumored on the block:
Ohtani - $47 Million / $43 Million
Soto* - $33 Million (personally think this will be closer to $28 million)
Yomamoto - $30 Million / $29 Million
Nola - $25 Million / $30 Million
Snell - $24.5 Million / $22.5
Bellinger - $24 Million / $27 Million
Alonso* - $22 Million
Chapman - $21 Million / $19 Million
Wacha* - $16 Million
Glasnow* - $15 Million ($25 for the year, but only $15 goes towards CBT - Trade candidate)
Bieber* - $12 Million
Hoskins - $12 Million /$16.5
Turner - $12 Million / $14 Million
Candelario - $7.5 Million / $17.5 Million
My guess is you can probably take a combination of those guys up to around $85-90 Million, with the remaining $10-15 Million going to shore up the bullpen.
CBT is set at $237 next year.
Financial penalties really aren't that meaningful/noticeable for big markets until you're $40 million over ($277 Million)
Historically, the Cubs try to have about $10 million before hitting any tiers so they can make offseason trades.
If they want to go $267 million, that would give them about $100 million to spend this offseason.
Major players and likely salaries via MLB Trade Rumors arbitration projections but possibly traded, OR The Athletic FA projections (Jim Bowden / Tim Britton), OR rumored on the block:
Ohtani - $47 Million / $43 Million
Soto* - $33 Million (personally think this will be closer to $28 million)
Yomamoto - $30 Million / $29 Million
Nola - $25 Million / $30 Million
Snell - $24.5 Million / $22.5
Bellinger - $24 Million / $27 Million
Alonso* - $22 Million
Chapman - $21 Million / $19 Million
Wacha* - $16 Million
Glasnow* - $15 Million ($25 for the year, but only $15 goes towards CBT - Trade candidate)
Bieber* - $12 Million
Hoskins - $12 Million /$16.5
Turner - $12 Million / $14 Million
Candelario - $7.5 Million / $17.5 Million
My guess is you can probably take a combination of those guys up to around $85-90 Million, with the remaining $10-15 Million going to shore up the bullpen.
No clue if this is correct. Using Bard and it's wrong quite a bit
But Ricketts said the network was going to basically print money. It looks like it is.
So when will the Cubs be the Yankees of the National League?
"Here is a breakdown of the Cubs' net revenue from Marquee in recent years:
2021: $169 million
2022: $161 million (estimated)"
But Ricketts said the network was going to basically print money. It looks like it is.
So when will the Cubs be the Yankees of the National League?
"Here is a breakdown of the Cubs' net revenue from Marquee in recent years:
2021: $169 million
2022: $161 million (estimated)"
Some entertaining financially plausible universes:
**** Pitchers
Trade for Soto ($33 Million)
Trade for Alonso ($22 Million) with PCA and have Mets cover
Trade for Jose Ramirez ($25 Million)
Sign Bellinger ($25 Million)
Tokyo Cubs
Sign Ohtani ($45 Million)
Sign Yoshi ($30 Million)
Sign Imanaga (No reliable estimates)
I don't think there is a universe in which Ohtani and Soto are both on the team, but a Sohtani jersey would be cool.
**** Pitchers
Trade for Soto ($33 Million)
Trade for Alonso ($22 Million) with PCA and have Mets cover
Trade for Jose Ramirez ($25 Million)
Sign Bellinger ($25 Million)
Tokyo Cubs
Sign Ohtani ($45 Million)
Sign Yoshi ($30 Million)
Sign Imanaga (No reliable estimates)
I don't think there is a universe in which Ohtani and Soto are both on the team, but a Sohtani jersey would be cool.
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Drew Smyly is in a weird situation.
2024: $10.5 Million if he opts in
2025: $10 Million, but Cubs can opt out for $2.5 Million
Opting in, he is guaranteeing himself $13 Million the next 2 years at minimum.
However
He is likely looking at coming out of the bullpen only in non-clutch situations in 2024 and the Cubs will be opting out of his 2025 option. Which would then severely limit his value for his age 35 contract.
At his age, it could be wiser to opt out, and as long as he found a multi-year deal greater than $6.5 million per, he'd be making more money. And my guess is there are MANY small market teams who would be open to paying him that at a minimum.
The other option is opting in, taking that $13 million, and hoping teams are willing to pay a 36 year old more than $4 million who hasn't started for 18 months. He would definitely get this if he takes on a big bullpen role, but my guess is that would only happen if things got bad.
2024: $10.5 Million if he opts in
2025: $10 Million, but Cubs can opt out for $2.5 Million
Opting in, he is guaranteeing himself $13 Million the next 2 years at minimum.
However
He is likely looking at coming out of the bullpen only in non-clutch situations in 2024 and the Cubs will be opting out of his 2025 option. Which would then severely limit his value for his age 35 contract.
At his age, it could be wiser to opt out, and as long as he found a multi-year deal greater than $6.5 million per, he'd be making more money. And my guess is there are MANY small market teams who would be open to paying him that at a minimum.
The other option is opting in, taking that $13 million, and hoping teams are willing to pay a 36 year old more than $4 million who hasn't started for 18 months. He would definitely get this if he takes on a big bullpen role, but my guess is that would only happen if things got bad.
My fear is Ohtani's days as a pitcher are done.
I would go with elite starter like Snell or Nola vs. hoping Ohtani can be #1 starter in 2025.
Offer Bellinger around $27-$30M@ 6yrs for a limited time, if he doesn't jump at the offer move on.
FO wants to build the team around defense but need consistent offense. Resigning Bellinger and getting Ohtani the best bat in the game to DH and assume his arm recovers is far less risky then throwing prospects at the Mets for a guy that has a slash line comparable to Wisdom.
If Ohtani can be had for 1.5 times any starter that's available it's worth the riak/wait.
I would love Ohtani as a Cub, but at what price?
If he can be got at $30-35M then great. But if he wants a 1.5x multiplier, I would rather not put so many $ into 1 player for the next 5-6 years. Would rather go:
- Bellinger (CF/1B)
- Nola/Snell (SP1)
- Hoskins(1B)/Chapman(3B) or Montgomery/Giolito/Rodriguez (SP2) or Hadar/Hendriks/Chapman (RP)
Holy ****.
Craig Counsell to the Cubs
Craig Counsell to the Cubs
That's about as big of a manager upgrade as you can make. Can't go cheap in FA/trade season if you're making moves like this from a coaching standpoint.
Wow! What in the hell is going on right now? I feel bad for Ross, and I love Ross, but this is 100% the right move. Counsell is one of the best managers in baseball hands down.
Holy crap did not expect this! I joked that if they could get Counsell you make the move but never thought that would be even in the realm of a possiblilty given how they publically backed Ross. This signals they are going to be very active this offseason I would think as you don't make a move like this without some big roster upgrades to go with it.