FERG: Close but not perfect, comebacks are harder to come by in 2023's CFB

[Connor_Ferguson]

My column from tonight's game. Hope y'all enjoy it.

FERG: Iowa State was close to pulling off a comeback after going down 21-3 to Kansas on Saturday at Jack Trice Stadium.

The thing is, in 2023's version of college football, you have to be damn near perfect.

FERG: Close, but not perfect - Comebacks are harder to come by in 2023's C.F.B.

Iowa State Cyclones' punt returner Jaylin Noel (13) runs with the ball after breaking a tackle during a punt return in the second quarter at Jack Trice Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 4, 2023, in Ames, Iowa. © Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK AMES - Iowa State was in the process of

cyclonefanatic.com

 

[clonebb]

And have a coach that knows how to manage a game and the clock. We have neither.

 

[Iastfan112]

Don't really agree with the premise here. First and foremost is it's hard to call Iowa State's second half defensive performance anything close to perfect. 3/4 of KU's drives were successful.

Secondly the assertion that comebacks are so much harder in CFB 2023 needs some data. I don't doubt it's harder but we've seen teams like Baylor and Stanford mount huge 2nd half rallies so I'd like more evidence.

I'd argue it's less a generic "you need perfection to come back in 2023" and more that ISU needs perfection given its offense struggles to score quickly.

 

[Drew0311]

Coaches being stubborn and sticking to a game plan that is not working is a problem. They should have realized way soon that the game plan wasn’t working and switch. However, it’s like we are hell bent on making a game plan work until we have to switch it to make a comeback.

 

[acoustimac]

Coaches being stubborn and sticking to a game plan that is not working is a problem. They should have realized way soon that the game plan wasn’t working and switch. However, it’s like we are hell bent on making a game plan work until we have to switch it to make a comeback.

A lot of coaches have the first couple of series all sketched out prior to the game and stick to it through hell and high water.

 

[sj4]

They know the exact stats on the new timing rule and so far this season it has made a difference of right at 4 fewer plays per game. That might be surprising but what needs to be understood is that before the rule change the Referee would usually be winding the clock just a handful of seconds after the clock was stopped for a first down. Sometimes nearly immediately. The days of waiting for the chains to be set and all that are long gone. So the impact was never going to be that great. If you get the chance go watch NCAA games from last year and you'll see it.

 

[madguy30]

Coaches being stubborn and sticking to a game plan that is not working is a problem. They should have realized way soon that the game plan wasn’t working and switch. However, it’s like we are hell bent on making a game plan work until we have to switch it to make a comeback.

Coming out and not attacking their second level with Becht fading out wide or similar was like when Prohm catered to Purdue and tOSU's strengths rather than force the issue on them to adjust.

 

[BCClone]

They know the exact stats on the new timing rule and so far this season it has made a difference of right at 4 fewer plays per game. That might be surprising but what needs to be understood is that before the rule change the Referee would usually be winding the clock just a handful of seconds after the clock was stopped for a first down. Sometimes nearly immediately. The days of waiting for the chains to be set and all that are long gone. So the impact was never going to be that great. If you get the chance go watch NCAA games from last year and you'll see it.

The idea that the chains have to be set is a myth that many took as fact. As long as the sideline judge toes the spot on the sideline so that at least the down marker can then get set before the next play, it’s a go. The key is consistency. If they wait for the chains to get there during the slow times, then they need to do it during hurry up and vice versa.

Saw the situation arise in a HS state championship game. Refs literally waited for the chains to fully set before they would wind the clock during the first 46 minutes. In the last 2 minutes, with a team driving to make a winning score, they toed the spot and wound it. Effectively eliminating about 2 plays from the team. They got to the 4 before time ran out.

 

[ClonerJams]

Was Sama hurt? Could have used his explosiveness last night.

 

[Drew0311]

Coming out and not attacking their second level with Becht fading out wide or similar was like when Prohm catered to Purdue and tOSU's strengths rather than force the issue on them to adjust.

It seems like every time we attack the second level we are at our best, yet we refuse to do it a lot. The worst thing we do is run the ball and yet we do that constantly

 

[sj4]

The idea that the chains have to be set is a myth that many took as fact. As long as the sideline judge toes the spot on the sideline so that at least the down marker can then get set before the next play, it’s a go. The key is consistency. If they wait for the chains to get there during the slow times, then they need to do it during hurry up and vice versa.

Saw the situation arise in a HS state championship game. Refs literally waited for the chains to fully set before they would wind the clock during the first 46 minutes. In the last 2 minutes, with a team driving to make a winning score, they toed the spot and wound it. Effectively eliminating about 2 plays from the team. They got to the 4 before time ran out.

Agree 100%

 

[madguy30]

It seems like every time we attack the second level we are at our best, yet we refuse to do it a lot. The worst thing we do is run the ball and yet we do that constantly

And attacking the 2nd level to loosen things up only helps literally everything else.

Football is hard to play and has its complications but the plan can be simple.

 

[BoxsterCy]

Don't really agree with the premise here. First and foremost is it's hard to call Iowa State's second half defensive performance anything close to perfect. 3/4 of KU's drives were successful.

Secondly the assertion that comebacks are so much harder in CFB 2023 needs some data. I don't doubt it's harder but we've seen teams like Baylor and Stanford mount huge 2nd half rallies so I'd like more evidence.

I'd argue it's less a generic "you need perfection to come back in 2023" and more that ISU needs perfection given its offense struggles to score quickly.

Iowa State's offensive make multi-score comebacks unlikely, we have our moments but seem to be unable to sustain anything. We are number #12 in scoring offense in the league and #4 in league defense. Last year we were #1 defense and last place offense. In league play we are a little better, reflects the improvement, #8 and #3 but still the offense ranks low. If we get behind at all, not even by multiple scores, we are not as likely to come back as some teams, even teams that rank in the middle of the Big 12 on both sides of the ball.

On to BYU and their Big 12 #13 offense and #11 defense. This should be game we score more in even with our not very great offense and one we don't let them score much. A loss to them would be more disappointing than the KU loss.

 

[Connor_Ferguson]

Don't really agree with the premise here. First and foremost is it's hard to call Iowa State's second half defensive performance anything close to perfect. 3/4 of KU's drives were successful.

Secondly the assertion that comebacks are so much harder in CFB 2023 needs some data. I don't doubt it's harder but we've seen teams like Baylor and Stanford mount huge 2nd half rallies so I'd like more evidence.

I'd argue it's less a generic "you need perfection to come back in 2023" and more that ISU needs perfection given its offense struggles to score quickly.

I mentioned the defense gave up those explosive plays, and it contributed as well as every error they made.

Part of this, too, is on being quicker on getting a play call in - Campbell has said this year that they're going to take the time to make sure the play gets called in correctly. That's his philosophical approach.

While that likely won't change in the next three games, the clock rules don't give you any lick of a grace period, where as 6 seconds of it being stopped per play on a drive with 5 first downs buys you half a minute. Over the course of the game, it adds up.

Working on some stat projects/deep dives surrounding Big 12 teams. It's more about possessions than it is plays. We'll talk more this week on F.A.R.T. about it

 

[UnCytely]

Don't fall so far behind in the first place!