Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

The Big Ten just got a 4th window to sell for a huge price. With 6 hosts out there, you can guarantee a network a weekly 10:30 ET/9:30 CT game. Really feels like the place for WarnerDiscovery or NBC Universal (USA Network) to step in and give the Big Ten another wheelbarrow full of cash.
 
I think in the end you will have 3 conf of about 24 teams. When that happens they may go back to having some sort of subdivisions/pods or whatever of regional teams.

What that means is we will be basically back to having regional divisions instead of conferences. that a just managed by 1 superconference each.

Go back to when every conference was 10-12 team regional conference, and compare it to having subdivisions of 10-12 team regional subdivisions of a super conference.
They also would be on the hook for what they are paid/valued in the new conference.

So if they go to the B1G, either the games would be on ACC media partners channels for no pay to FSU, or they pay the Media income from the B1G partners to the ACC.

Either way it is much more than the 17M per year the ACC pays. Without an agreement the ACC can hold them until the end or make them pay.
 
I was off work today, so like any sane person I watched the livestream of today's FSU board of trustees meeting. The Chair said 2-3 times about this topic, "we may be coming back to you sooner rather than later," so we may see them withdrawing by the deadline on 15th.
With all the FSU chatter, I feel it's a heads up to Clemson, UNC, Miami, etc. that they should be prepared to jump by Aug15- if they want to leave the ACC as well.

So I would put my under on FSU leaving by Aug 8.
 
I just do not see a world in which any media company would pay the B1G to have 24 teams. It's probably difficult to justify paying Maryland, Northwestern, Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, and Minnesota $90 ******* million anyway.

Purdue and Indiana in a state that only has 6.8 million people but also has huge Notre Dame and Colts brands...they can't be worth anywhere near what they're getting.

You're talking about the at best 3rd and 4th most popular football teams in a state of only 6.8 million. For those keeping track ASU and Arizona would be the 2nd and 3rd biggest teams in a state of 7.3 million. It wouldn't shock me at all if the Chicago Bears or several other NFL/NCAA teams outside of Colts/Irish were more popular than Purdue and Indiana.
 
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so PAC 12 combines with Big 12 and Big 10

OU and TX go to SEC

ACC gets split up into SEC / Big 10

and then after all the cluster f ring-around-the-rosey is done we'll be like wait this makes no sense
let's re-do this by region

can we just skip all this bs and go straight to the 4 Region Power Conferences

i think there's 64 P5 teams currently
 
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With all the FSU chatter, I feel it's a heads up to Clemson, UNC, Miami, etc. that they should be prepared to jump by Aug15- if they want to leave the ACC as well.

So I would put my under on FSU leaving by Aug 8.
At best the only thing they can do is say we plan to leave at the end of the contract....in 11 years. Just like OuT did.

Then begin a legal process or negotiation to leave before the end of the contract.

That means they need a landing spot...and that landing spot has to be agreeable to them coming any time from 1-12 years from now. Then they need time to go through a lengthy legal battle or time to negotiate.

All which take years. With that I think everyone already knows those schools are out the door when the contract is up. So announcing it really just gets the process of fighting started. And then they have to have a landing spot that agrees with it.

It will still be years down the road.
 
so PAC 12 combines with Big 12 and Big 10

OU and TX go to SEC

ACC gets split up into SEC / Big 10

and then after all the cluster f ring-around-the-rosey is done we'll be like wait this makes no sense
let's re-do this by region

can we just skip all this bs and go straight to the 4 Region Power Conferences

i think there's 64 P5 teams currently
69
 


Wondering if FOX is willing to go pro-rata for all the corners. There was talk by McMurphy that they only agreed to add 2...


This matches what I heard this morning.

ASU apparently changed course after the meeting Tuesday.

I have NOT heard that Utah did or didn't change course, the change is that AZ/ASU are cozying up to each other now rather than having friction between them. But at some point they surely would wise up and it's just the Big 12's choice to add them or go with the bigger all sports historical brand in UConn since they already have the broader fanbase of Utah wrapped up.
 
And it was a lot easier for OUT to negotiate since they were only really reducing the GOR by a year and the big 12 had some incentive to get UT\OU out the door.
Add to that, the B12 and OUT came to an agreement after the B12 expanded and after they signed their new media deal. The B12 was on solid ground with it's future assured when it made the agreement.

Comparatively, the ACC agreeing to sell of rights would have the opposite effect on the conference. Besides, how would this win a majority of the ACC schools over? How many are the B10 and SEC going to take? Is it 8? No, probably fewer? It has zero chance of winning.
 
That's the thing people are ignoring - eventually these conference payouts are going to get so excessive that the TV networks won't be able to keep increasing them at the next deal - or they might even go down. What happens when Michigan, Ohio St, Alabama, Georgia, Texas, OU, and others suddenly have to make less money than they were previously making? Fans of the smaller Big 10 and SEC schools will tell you that they will continue their benevolent attitudes towards the rest of their conference. But will that really be the case when ESPN continues to whisper in their ears "we can get you more money if you leave the dead weight behind?"
My guess is the networks are rolling the dice that streaming will be a large player in 2030. Not necessarily looking for Amazon or Apple to save the day. But by 2031: ESPN+, Peacock and Paramount+ will televise a large percent of the game inventory and it will be profitable.

I also think that the CFP will grow to 16 teams, so that counters any decline in the core media rights revenue. Also around 2030 the NCAA Tournament goes out to bid. CBS has owned that for about 40 years and some folks in college athletics feel it is HIGHLY undervalued.

We give Yormark a lot of credit for wanting to bid football & hoops separately. Who knows, maybe that is feedback he is getting from his media consultants by allowing contracts to be split by media partner to limit those media partners investment.
 
If the PAC brand goes totally away and osu/wazzup end up in the mwc, that might be the best outcome we've seen for a g5 conference in the history of realignment. They were looking at getting gutted to backfill and having to promote other schools, now they could end not only securing their biggest brands but also add two decent programs right basically in their footprint.
 
Add to that, the B12 and OUT came to an agreement after the B12 expanded and after they signed their new media deal. The B12 was on solid ground with it's future assured when it made the agreement.

Comparatively, the ACC agreeing to sell of rights would have the opposite effect on the conference. Besides, how would this win a majority of the ACC schools over? How many are the B10 and SEC going to take? Is it 8? No, probably fewer? It has zero chance of winning.

Also, if its like other conferences as soon as a team says they're leaving, they lose their vote. So the vote to break up is essentially rigged in favor of those not leaving.
 
This matches what I heard this morning.

ASU apparently changed course after the meeting Tuesday.

I have NOT heard that Utah did or didn't change course, the change is that AZ/ASU are cozying up to each other now rather than having friction between them. But at some point they surely would wise up and it's just the Big 12's choice to add them or go with the bigger all sports historical brand in UConn since they already have the broader fanbase of Utah wrapped up.
I hope they go for Utah. Yeah, they sound like a bunch of asshats, but we need someone to hate.
 


69 exactly right now:
Big 12: 13
Pac: 9
Big Ten: 16
SEC: 16
ACC: 15 (w ND)

Almost 100% chance WSU/Ore St are not power conference soon: 67

Some chance that Stanford and/or Cal don't make it through this would be 66 or 65

SDSU and SMU aren't going to get that promotion because what's left of Pac, if anything, is just going to be viewed as MWC.

I can't see any other teams getting promoted especially with all this talk of FSU demanding to leave ACC as soon as possible.
 
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