Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[thakeepa14]

The McMurphy interview on the 365 YouTube channel tonight is gold. He explains everything about the current situation very clearly. Espn pays 20 mil per school and Fox pays 12 mil per school per the new B12 contract. Big 12 can move to 14 with the full 32 mil payout per school, anything past 14 ESPN is required to pay their 20 per power 5 school, but Fox would need to agree to pay their 12 mil share. He thinks UO and UW could go to the Big 12, but he really believes they end up in the B10 in the long term, which is giving the B12 cold feet. He thinks the most likely case if the B12 goes to 16, is thru the corner schools.

Wow, this is outstanding. Thanks for sharing. McMurphy knows what's really going on.
The part about Oregon and Wash is really important. Big XII wants them, but has heard enough about their dealings with B10 to know those two schools are on the cusp of a B10 invite. Although Oregon and Wash result in a slightly reduced share for other B10 schools, the existing schools are close to approving. B10 doesn't want to be seen as the villain by taking 4 schools at once. Same story there.

I think Arizona is already on board and it's just a formality at this point. ESPN and FOX have already signed up for those schools closing out the 14. The public message to about another school besides the 4 corners is BY lighting a fire in two important areas:
1) Get an answer from FOX about if they'd be willing to foot the extra 12 mill each for ASU and Utah
2) Put pressure on ASU and Utah (Big XII's preference all along) to make the jump

 

[Rods79]

As it should in that scenario. As I posted earlier, if the Big Ten wants them, just not right now, forget about Washington and Oregon, and look elsewhere.

“Long term”…and who knows what the media landscape is like then. We’re just as likely to have a contraction and breakaway of 24 teams, or we stick to the super-conference model without the PAC in play. The whole paradigm could shift drastically, but you can guarantee it will shift in some way.

You take them now and keep building the brand of the Big 12. Get the brand cache and open up more avenues for BY to work some forward thinking marketing initiative.

Sounds like McMurphy is getting his information from the leak-stream out there from OUWA that is trying to get the Big 10 to open up and take them now.

 

[State2015]

Oregon and Washington are fine, eventually they’ll get picked up and they’ll have a seat at the table. Just too big of brands in a time slot with really only 1 other big player (USC). The arizonas and Utah tho need to get moving or else they’re left behind. Would rather get just AZ to close this out and wait a bit.

UCONN would be a huge miss IMO. Not only are they a huge geographical outlier, football is king. They have an off campus piece of trash stadium that no one goes to. Would really devalue B12 football and that’s the big moneymaker here. I know CO and AZ aren’t world beaters but they’re solid power 5 programs with decent support

 

[Cloneon]

Wow, this is outstanding. Thanks for sharing. McMurphy knows what's really going on.
The part about Oregon and Wash is really important. Big XII wants them, but has heard enough about their dealings with B10 to know those two schools are on the cusp of a B10 invite. Although Oregon and Wash result in a slightly reduced share for other B10 schools, the existing schools are close to approving. B10 doesn't want to be seen as the villain by taking 4 schools at once. Same story there.

I think Arizona is already on board and it's just a formality at this point. ESPN and FOX have already signed up for those schools closing out the 14. The public message to about another school besides the 4 corners is BY lighting a fire in two important areas:
1) Get an answer from FOX about if they'd be willing to foot the extra 12 mill each for ASU and Utah
2) Put pressure on ASU and Utah (Big XII's preference all along) to make the jump

I see Fox being the major media controller here. It's they who are negotiating WA/OR lower share to B1G while at the same time working the B12 full share for AZ/ASU/UT. ESPN, too, has to oblige, but again Fox is the key. Their little spreadsheet on this is absolutely the hugest portion of what transpires and the sequence of it. ... IMO.
Sequence is REALLY important. For example AZ first to B12 puts Fox in better position to low ball WA/OR. Of course, there's also a point of lower payout to B1G first where now the B12 is in control of AZ/ASU/UT.
The stalemate is to put pressure on the lower price. Of course, given the B1G payout, the apparent obvious move would AZ to B12 first and leaving WA/OR to lower their ego even more.
This is a high stakes chess game.
Of course, though highly unlikely, is P12 gets an attractive media contract screwing Fox. In that case welcome UConn. Sorry USC/UCLA, no partners.

 

[Stormin]

Oregon and Washington are fine, eventually they’ll get picked up and they’ll have a seat at the table. Just too big of brands in a time slot with really only 1 other big player (USC). The arizonas and Utah tho need to get moving or else they’re left behind. Would rather get just AZ to close this out and wait a bit.

UCONN would be a huge miss IMO. Not only are they a huge geographical outlier, football is king. They have an off campus piece of trash stadium that no one goes to. Would really devalue B12 football and that’s the big moneymaker here. I know CO and AZ aren’t world beaters but they’re solid power 5 programs with decent support

B1G is negotiating a reduced payment for Washington and Oregon. They have the leverage. And they are desired by B1G at that price. ASU and Utah are just arrogant and will sink with the PAC 6 when Arizona leaves for the B1G.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Worth noting that, even at a reduced share, the Big Ten is still going to be more money than the Big 12 at a full share.

 

[werdnamanhill]

Worth noting that, even at a reduced share, the Big Ten is still going to be more money than the Big 12 at a full share.

Problem is, B1G doesn't really have the money to add anyone, even at a partial share. There's no automatic escalators like we have. They'd have to re-negotiate, and there's no guarantee what kind of share CBS, NBC, FOX would agree on for UW and UO

 

[laminak]

BY is awesome. One spot left guys. Who wants to roll the dice? Arizona is going to Big 12. They really have no choice. Geographic fit as well. They will move. Others have no choice. Or they arrogantly think they are superior to the Big 12.

 

[Rods79]

I see Fox being the major media controller here. It's they who are negotiating WA/OR lower share to B1G while at the same time working the B12 full share for AZ/ASU/UT. ESPN, too, has to oblige, but again Fox is the key. Their little spreadsheet on this is absolutely the hugest portion of what transpires and the sequence of it. ... IMO.

You need to play 3D Chess because we’re in shared custody between Fox and ESPN. For Fox, Oregon and Washington have 20 mill from ESPN if they come over to the Big 12, meaning you’d only reasonably have to put up the 12 mill escalation each to the Big 12 for their involvement in a competitive league vs the ~35 mill increasing to ~80 mill each over term for getting them into the B1G. Plus with forcing them into the B1G now, you’re also fighting against that imaginary 16 team threshold as a fallback option to stay fluid for the future CFB model. So, do you really want to buy them, or rent them in the Big 12?

I still contend that ND is the decision maker until the ACC dies. Too risky/too costly for the B1G to buy Oregon and Washington now, even though they are quality adds and “check the boxes”.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Problem is, B1G doesn't really have the money to add anyone, even at a partial share. There's no automatic escalators like we have. They'd have to re-negotiate, and there's no guarantee what kind of share CBS, NBC, FOX would agree on for UW and UO

Right but the Big Ten would have an awful lot of leverage in those negotiations for those brands plus not having to deal with the ESPN/Disney mess probably makes it easier.

 

[Clonefan94]

Wow, this is outstanding. Thanks for sharing. McMurphy knows what's really going on.
The part about Oregon and Wash is really important. Big XII wants them, but has heard enough about their dealings with B10 to know those two schools are on the cusp of a B10 invite. Although Oregon and Wash result in a slightly reduced share for other B10 schools, the existing schools are close to approving. B10 doesn't want to be seen as the villain by taking 4 schools at once. Same story there.

I think Arizona is already on board and it's just a formality at this point. ESPN and FOX have already signed up for those schools closing out the 14. The public message to about another school besides the 4 corners is BY lighting a fire in two important areas:
1) Get an answer from FOX about if they'd be willing to foot the extra 12 mill each for ASU and Utah
2) Put pressure on ASU and Utah (Big XII's preference all along) to make the jump

I don’t understand the Big 10 doesn’t want to be the villain though. First, the media will always blame the Big 12 over the Big 10, no matter how many the Big 10 take. It was that way before Big 12 took any team.

Second, they are the villain though. Under the pretense of an alliance, they stole the biggest brand in the PAC. They may not be the water that is flooding the ship, but, they did blow the hole in the hull.

That being said, I don’t think the Big10 gives a **** about the optics. If they really are considering WAOU now, they are just trying to figure out how to get them, without reducing payments to existing members.

 

[Gonzo]

Problem is, B1G doesn't really have the money to add anyone, even at a partial share. There's no automatic escalators like we have. They'd have to re-negotiate, and there's no guarantee what kind of share CBS, NBC, FOX would agree on for UW and UO

Where are you getting that info? According to this, it does:

Big Ten reportedly "not done" expanding after $1.1 billion/year rights deals, which include escalator clause

Brett McMurphy reports that a source says the Big Ten is "not done" expanding, and their media deals have a clause for new additions.

awfulannouncing.com

The contract includes an escalator clause, meaning the deal could approach nearly $10 billion if the Big Ten’s membership increases, network sources said. Even after adding USC and UCLA, the Big Ten “is not done” expanding, sources told Action Network.

 

[DBQR4CY]

To repeat, how great was it stealing the Big 10 Media Days thunder? Sports coverage was split between Iowa and the Big 12 when Colorado had yet to formally state they were joining...then the following day for their meeting and announcement it stole the media coverage again! Fantastic!

 

[jbhtexas]

“Long term”…and who knows what the media landscape is like then. We’re just as likely to have a contraction and breakaway of 24 teams, or we stick to the super-conference model without the PAC in play. The whole paradigm could shift drastically, but you can guarantee it will shift in some way.

You take them now and keep building the brand of the Big 12. Get the brand cache and open up more avenues for BY to work some forward thinking marketing initiative.

Sounds like McMurphy is getting his information from the leak-stream out there from OUWA that is trying to get the Big 10 to open up and take them now.

It sounds to me like you are just trying to discredit McMurphy because his information doesn't fit your Oregon/Washington fetish.

It seems some people here have totally forgotten the last decade+ of chaos and instability the Big 12 has endured due to members actively looking for/finding better deals. Why do people want to jump right back into that?

If Washington and Oregon want the Big Ten, and the Big Ten wants them (for the right price), then at most there will be a couple of years of positivity for the Big 12, followed by a several-year crapshow of chaos, negative press, instability, scrambling to find new members, etc. for the Big 12 as OUWA work out their exit.

 

[werdnamanhill]

Where are you getting that info? According to this, it does:

Big Ten reportedly "not done" expanding after $1.1 billion/year rights deals, which include escalator clause

Brett McMurphy reports that a source says the Big Ten is "not done" expanding, and their media deals have a clause for new additions.

awfulannouncing.com

The contract includes an escalator clause, meaning the deal could approach nearly $10 billion if the Big Ten’s membership increases, network sources said. Even after adding USC and UCLA, the Big Ten “is not done” expanding, sources told Action Network.

I guess if figured that was essentially the "Notre Dame Clause"

Do you think they'd use that on PNW schools?

 

[thakeepa14]

I see Fox being the major media controller here. It's they who are negotiating WA/OR lower share to B1G while at the same time working the B12 full share for AZ/ASU/UT. ESPN, too, has to oblige, but again Fox is the key. Their little spreadsheet on this is absolutely the hugest portion of what transpires and the sequence of it. ... IMO.
Sequence is REALLY important. For example AZ first to B12 puts Fox in better position to low ball WA/OR. Of course, there's also a point of lower payout to B1G first where now the B12 is in control of AZ/ASU/UT.
The stalemate is to put pressure on the lower price. Of course, given the B1G payout, the apparent obvious move would AZ to B12 first and leaving WA/OR to lower their ego even more.
This is a high stakes chess game.
Of course, though highly unlikely, is P12 gets an attractive media contract screwing Fox. In that case welcome UConn. Sorry USC/UCLA, no partners.

Totally agree, the sequence of school moves lies in FOX's hands. Arizona to Big XII is next move. FOX/B10- Oregon/Wash dealings will decide the next round.

For Big XII, I'm ok with any of these:
-Arizona, stay at 14
-If UO/Wash to B10, then Arizona, ASU, Utah (16)
-If UO/Wash is no to B10, then Arizona, UO/Wash (16). Utah and ASU to PAC/MW.

I believe the UCONN thing was to put pressure on Arizona. Arizona is on their way to the Big XII. While there are scenarios that an odd number come to Big XII, the UCONN evening out the odd numbers is less likely. It's either both Oregon, Wash, and no one else; or both ASU and Utah. It doesn't make sense to extend, for example, to ASU and UCONN.

IMO, Oregon/Wash to B10 is going to happen. I have no proof on this.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

It sounds to me like you are just trying to discredit McMurphy because his information doesn't fit your Oregon/Washington fetish.

It seems some people here have totally forgotten the last decade+ of chaos and instability the Big 12 has endured due to members actively looking for/finding better deals. Why do people want to jump right back into that?

If Washington and Oregon want the Big Ten, and the Big Ten wants them (for the right price), then at most there will be a couple of years of positivity for the Big 12, followed by a several-year crapshow of chaos, negative press, instability, scrambling to find new members, etc. for the Big 12 as OUWA work out their exit.

But if you go into the relationship with the understanding of how that's all going to work, you don't have those problems.

If Washington/Oregon come, the come with what's basically a pre-nup.

 

[Daserop]

This will be a big test for BY. Unsure if it's technically correct, but this situation reminds me of a "zero sum game" scenario. I anxiously await how he handle the situation.

 

[cyatheart]

BY is awesome. One spot left guys. Who wants to roll the dice? Arizona is going to Big 12. They really have no choice. Geographic fit as well. They will move. Others have no choice. Or they arrogantly think they are superior to the Big 12.

I never understood Arizona hesitating. They can’t have that basketball program on Apple streaming at a 10est tip every game. They have to move.

 

[SCNCY]

I never understood Arizona hesitating. They can’t have that basketball program on Apple streaming at a 10est tip every game. They have to move.

I think it’s just a formality of waiting for PAC to provide a final media deal. Since they’ve been PAC members for so long, they need that last justification for leaving. And weak media numbers would be that push and justification for the regents to accept Arizona to leave.