Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[exCyDing]

I was certain of this at one point, but now I'm not so sure.

Case for MWC schools joining the PAC:

• PAC brand > MWC brand
• A few years left on the current CFP deal
• Better bowl agreements in place
• Taking the PAC + the top of the MWC would probably be a better and more lucrative conference, long-term

Case for PAC schools joining the MWC:

• At least the MWC has a media deal
• $35M buyout for MWC to join the PAC for 2024, $0 buyout for PAC to join the MWC. Most schools in both conferences are pretty strapped for cash right now. Even though it's short-term, this could be a giant hurdle

The PAC really backed themselves into a corner by delaying and delaying. If this all goes down in June or before, SDSU is probably voting today to join the PAC as a replacement for Colorado, with SMU the launching pad in case more schools bolt. UNLV, Boise St, Fresno St, CO St and others are all sitting by the phone.

After another moment of contemplation, guess the work around for this would be to add SDSU + as many AAC schools as necessary to get back to 10 members for 2024, take whatever pity deal a media outlet offers and then see which MWC maximize revenue for 2025 and beyond.

 

[Gonzo]

Interesting to hear this about NE schools and GTech, I suspected that but wasn't sure. That's what I've been telling everyone about UCLA and San Diego State...I'm dead serious you're more likely to run into a fellow Cyclone fans in LA or San Diego than a passionate fan of those school's sports teams.

NW and Illinois are like that too. Chicago has a ton of other B10 fans but Illinois and NW fans barely exist anywhere.

Georgia Tech isn't even like the ISU of Georgia where they have maybe 1/3 or 1/4 of fans and the fans they do have are crazy passionate like Cyclones?

I'd be willing to bet there are more ND fans in Chicago than Illini and NW.

 

[NWICY]

Mark me down for late 2040s.

Next TV Deal cycle is further expansion of ACC teams.

The one after that the "haves" in the big conferences will demand unequal revenue sharing.

Then it's either give pink slips to the schools at the bottom, or (what I think will happen) the big name brand schools break off and form a whole different entity.

The 48-64 team super conference?

 

[agrabes]

I disagree. Even in streaming, especially for college sporsts, media markets and population matter. You need eyeballs for streaming and the more eyeballs, the more money. College sports is still mostly a regional thing. Also, cable may be going away, but streaming cable is not.

You need eyeballs, yes. Being in a larger metro you do have a larger opportunity to get fans eventually, but it doesn't make it likely. Even when Houston had Tom Herman and had a few years back to back with high level success, they didn't create a sustaining high performing team even within the context of the AAC and to my knowledge they do not pull in high TV numbers or have a large fanbase. Houston was honestly the biggest miss in my opinion during the B12 earlier expansion. Just being in a large metro doesn't mean that you have a high likelihood of converting those locals into fans. And because we don't have a BTN revenue model, we don't get any money from them unless they become fans and watch the games. You can fish in the best spots in the world, but if you're throwing in a bare line with no hook and no bait, you're not going to catch any of them. That's Houston, imo. UCF I see as slightly better because they have had more success more recently and they have been consistently on the rise. They caught lightning in a bottle with their undefeated season and now are coming into the P5 with a proven coach. Houston's been around a long time and never done anything. UCF's done a little bit and they've had less time, so I see more opportunity for change.

UConn is also poor. From 2003-2010 they had 8 wins or more in 6 of 8 seasons and in 2010 played Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl. I remember that year it was in the news that the university literally lost money by accepting the bowl bid because so few fans wanted to go in their school's one and only BCS bid. They literally left the AAC because they couldn't compete in football there and could not afford to compete. UConn could not do it when they were at the top level of football for 8 years in the 2000's. I don't see how they can do it now after continuously failing and dropping down to lower levels. UConn would be a good basketball only add, but should not be considered for football.

 

[NWICY]

I'm indifferent on UCONN with the exception that the conference has to sign a 100-year promise to not move the Big 12 Basketball Tournament to MSG/Barclay's

That would be a low attendance **** show.

 

[Acylum]

They're currently granted an AQ spot in the CFP - what would it take for them to lose that? dropping below a certain number of teams?

Honestly have no idea. Either the PAC or MWC completely disappearing would change something I would think.

 

[jcyclonee]

I’m not going to argue about attendance numbers again. VT wouldn’t get one to the big ten because they would just get Virginia. Both are good academic schools for sure but neither have much in the way of brand recognition or national appeal. VT has been nothing since beemer left.

You are probably right about the Big 10 invite. I do think they would be in play for the SEC though.

 

[MisterO]

For those who “feel bad” for Oregon State and Washington State in all of this, I ask…why??

Show me anyone…just one person…who is affiliated with either of those schools who was wringing their hands for us during all of this realignment stuff. I’m talking all the way back to when we were going to be relegated to the Big East over a decade ago.

EDIT: this is not directed exclusively at you @Gerbs. Just a general post that happened to be immediately after yours

I have a family friend who plays on the women’s basketball team…she’ll be gone after all this, but there are still good kids who get lost in this stuff.

 

[MisterO]

So who will be the next addition after CU?

 

[CyCrazy]

I'd be willing to bet there are more ND fans in Chicago than . Nd

Illinois is bigger in Chicago than Nw. Nd is the biggest player tho.

 

[MisterO]

Exactly. If you felt bad for them, guess you should have stayed up to midnight watching some ****** Wazzu v Cal football game to increase their ratings.

This is us or them stuff. Get over OSU and WSU.

This.
Exactly why I posted yesterday that if they were smart, OSU and Wazzu woulda hopped on the B12 train yesterday. They look like they could be in serious trouble if PAC continues to fall apart.

 

[jcyclonee]

Am I reading that correctly that he says Colorado is the Pac's worst team like U of Chicago was the Big Ten's worst team a century ago when they left? And replacing them with Michigan State is identical to Pac adding San Diego State.

It's the lower left part of the "chart".

That is a rather "interesting" comparison.

 

[nrg4isu]

Honestly have no idea. Either the PAC or MWC completely disappearing would change something I would think.

This is the best I could find in 5 minutes - It seems like there are NO conference based automatic qualifiers.

"... the six highest-ranked conference champions will receive automatic bids. The field will then be filled out with the six highest-ranked teams remaining."

So basically, of ALL conferences, take the top 6 highest ranked conference champions. We all know that that will always include the SEC, B10, B12, ACC and probably whatever the Pac12 turns into, plus one other conference. It IS feasible though that if the PAC12 loses UW and UO, 2 smaller "G5" conference champions could jump them. I.e. Tulane and ???

TBH, the new playoffs seem to make it most difficult for a team like Notre Dame to get in.

 

[2122]

Realignment porn bonanza.

 

[jcyclonee]

Well I’m insulted lol. Also wild to reference a realignment move from 80 years ago which was also 19 years before SDSU even had a football team

Honestly, there were plenty of times that I wish ISU had been SDSU. It gets cold in the winter and the cheap Mexico bars are a long drive away.

 

[RealisticCy]

Go get Oregon, Washington, and Arizona to get 16 for football. If the Ducks and Huskies say no, tell them "**** off" immediately and offer Utah and Arizona St.

Consider adding Gonzaga and UConn for everything but football.

 

[HFCS]

I'd be willing to bet there are more ND fans in Chicago than Illini and NW.

I think there might be more ISU fans, serious. I'm 100% positive there are more Iowa fans in Chicago. I lived there 03-14. At least in my neighborhoods I was in. I met one Illinois fan in 11 years. The only NW fan I met was an ISU grad who lived across the street from campus so he adopted NW as his second team and went to games. Talking about fans, not grads.

Wisconsin/Michigan fans outnumber NW/IL by multitudes. I became a bit of a Wisconsin fan because everybody I met was a Wisconsin fan/grad.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Go get Oregon, Washington, and Arizona to get 16 for football. If the Ducks and Huskies say no, tell them "**** off" immediately and offer Utah and Arizona St.

Consider adding Gonzaga and UConn for everything but football.

Why would UConn leave their historic rivals for another basketball only league? The whole point of them moving to the Big 12 would be to give their football program a stable home.

 

[HFCS]

Not that this has any merits, but UConn baseball is actually really good as far as other sports. But yeah football they got a LOOOOOONNNNNGGGGG way to to.

Are they the only cold weather baseball team that is good? Do they play inside? I cannot imagine February baseball in Connecticut being enjoyable.

 

[Gonzo]

I think there might be more ISU fans, serious. I'm 100% positive there are more Iowa fans in Chicago. I lived there 03-14. At least in my neighborhoods I was in. I met one Illinois fan in 11 years. The only NW fan I met was an ISU grad who lived across the street from campus so he adopted NW as his second team and went to games. Talking about fans, not grads.

Wisconsin/Michigan fans outnumber NW/IL by multitudes. I became a bit of a Wisconsin fan because everybody I met was a Wisconsin fan/grad.

Yep, Michigan St. fans too. We lived there several years late 90s -early00s. There were a lot of ND fans in my company and not a single NW fan I can remember.