Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[dafarmer]

No chance, but if OU had stayed there would be a 10% chance. Nobody claimed NU produces geniuses.

Nebby won't leave. Why take less money?

And if they did... it wouldn't hurt the B1G at all. Heck, they might be happy about it?

 

[cyfan92]

Big 12 with UCONN protected rivalry games

KU-KSU
BYU-CU
Tech-UH
TCU-BU
ISU-OSU
WVU-Cincy
UCONN-UCF

Big 12 with Arizona protected rivalry games

KU-KSU
TCU-BU
AZ-CU
BYU-Tech?
ISU-OSU
WVU-Cincy
UH-UCF

 

[HFCS]

1. Pitt 2. VT 3.NCSt 4. Louisville 5.UCONN 6. Syracuse... I think BC and WF are hosed personally. I don't believe both NCSt and VT will be available and likely neither. I would take them over Louisville.

So far the biggest losers in realignment I can remember...

Idaho and New Mexico State - lost FBS football entirely
USF - briefly in BCS conference, now in group of five
Uconn - briefly in BCS conference, now group of five, chance of coming back. Winning basketball national championships constantly means they probably didn't actually feel any bad effect

Feeling it right now:
Wash St and Ore St - almost certain to dislike new fate
Cal/Stanford - do they even care?

Next round of jeopardy:
Wake Forest and BC - very likely
NC State, Syracuse, Louisville - will a game of musical chairs be unkind to one of them?

 

[FriendlySpartan]

SEC goes to 20, who do you have them taking? VT and NCSt have been tied to the SEC as options for 20 years.

I don’t know if they go to 20. The conferences seem really happy at 16. Clemson seems like the obv pick, not sure about FSU.

NCST and VaTech are barely relevant in their own states they add nothing to the media deals of the SEC/Bigten. They don’t just expand to expand

 

[Scruff]

No chance, but if OU had stayed there would be a 10% chance. Nobody claimed NU produces geniuses.

If you ever need a reminder of how delusional Nebby fans are go read this person's X(twitter) feed: https://twitter.com/Genetics56

 

[Acylum]

We’re all waiting for Arizona’s decision. If they jump, wouldn’t be surprised if Oregon and Washington follow. If they don’t, the PAC survives this round and the Big12 goes East.

I don’t see Oregon (nor probably UW) basing their decision on what Arizona does.

 

[jdoggivjc]

The next media cycle is likely to be flat (in real dollars over time) in terms of payouts. There aren't many chess pieces to move that help the bottom line. And the one after that might mean a decline in payouts if the fundamentals don't change.

The huge deals the B1G and SEC got this time around are the source of instability we've seen. Imagine what chaos comes with ending those paydays.

If money ends up being flat, or even going down in the round of TV contracts for the B1G and SEC,.. yeah - that's when chaos truly begins because that's when you see just how loyal the big schools are in the B1G and SEC. And that may be the start of the rumored "super league" where the Purdues, Indianas, Northwesterns, Vanderbilts, South Carolinas, Mississippi Sts, etc, who think they're safe and secure are finally put at risk.

 

[Scruff]

I don’t see Oregon (nor probably UW) basing their decision on what Arizona does.

While I don't disagree and I'd guess it's more on how they feel about their chances at the B1G, but if Zona jumps and the PAC is down to 8 schools... then even holding out 5 years can't feel good.

 

[HFCS]

I don’t see Oregon (nor probably UW) basing their decision on what Arizona does.

The Pac hangs on barely with them...or it's a Pac/MWC hybrid without them. You're right Arizona alone is not going to radically change that.

If I was an ASU or Utah fan I'd be pretty outraged that their position is just along for the ride no matter what. It's ASU and Utah that are truly out hanging in the wind...and at least pretending they like it that way.

 

[Scruff]

If money ends up being flat, or even going down in the round of TV contracts for the B1G and SEC,.. yeah - that's when chaos truly begins because that's when you see just how loyal the big schools are in the B1G and SEC. And that may be the start of the rumored "super league" where the Purdues, Indianas, Northwesterns, Vanderbilts, South Carolinas, Mississippi Sts, etc, who think they're safe and secure are finally put at risk.

I'd love to see the big schools create NFL lite. That way I could choose not to watch it. Maybe then everyone else can band together as college football with geographic rivals as it was meant to be. I won't hold my breath.

 

[Kinch]

You can tell that the PAC 9 is hanging by threads when the only statement of real support for the conference is coming from Oregon State.

 

[Scruff]

Water is wet. Oregon cannot feel good about getting a B1G invite if they wait for the ACC to collapse. If B1G says no, I'm starting to believe they may join our national conference that is young, hip, and cool like their nike uniforms.

 

[jdoggivjc]

I don’t see Oregon (nor probably UW) basing their decision on what Arizona does.

Not directly, but what Arizona does will influence their decision. The PAC is in crisis with Colorado's departure; with Arizona gone they're a sinking ship. While Oregon and Washington are the premium brands in the PAC regardless at this point with USC, UCLA, and Colorado gone, even those two can't overcome the overwhelming hurdle of overcoming the MWC's GOR to add teams to get back to 10. With AZ gone it will now be 2 teams they have to find. Add in to the fact that the PAC doesn't have a TV deal and a respectable one isn't in the works - one that isn't going to come anywhere close to what the Big 12 has. I know UO and UW are already thinking about leaving, but AZ leaving might be what finally gets them to do it.

 

[2speedy1]

I get the ISU angst over Uconn. In football, Uconn isnt good. So, the question is, since Uconn has inroads--big inroads in the ne, is getting those markets for hoops offset the fact the big 12 may have to pass on a ACC team down the road?

I think BY gets to make that call. what has he done so far to make people doubt him?

Colo plus Uconn to 14 is a huge win. no, it doesnt break the pac, but i think it puts the big 12 in the markets BY wants.

Im still hoping for arz, oregon and washington--that's the hr, but colo plus uconn is an rbi double.

Taking UConn right now is ...at most a bunt.

 

[jdoggivjc]

The Pac hangs on barely with them...or it's a Pac/MWC hybrid without them. You're right Arizona alone is not going to radically change that.

If I was an ASU or Utah fan I'd be pretty outraged that their position is just along for the ride no matter what. It's ASU and Utah that are truly out hanging in the wind...and at least pretending they like it that way.

I feel no sympathy for ASU or Utah fans. For years the "4 corners" scenario has been discussed, and for years both ASU and Utah fans have indignantly thumbed their noses at the idea. Let them be outraged.

 

[Acylum]

The Pac hangs on barely with them...or it's a Pac/MWC hybrid without them. You're right Arizona alone is not going to radically change that.

If I was an ASU or Utah fan I'd be pretty outraged that their position is just along for the ride no matter what. It's ASU and Utah that are truly out hanging in the wind...and at least pretending they like it that way.

ASU and Utah have only their fans and administrators to blame. Compare them to the BYU fan base, beat writers, and podcasters who are suddenly the most vocal B12 cheerleaders in the conference and have yet to play a game. BYU is kind of growing on me.

 

[cycfan1]

UCONN sits right in between New York and Boston, 2 huge media markets. B1G added Rutgers for a reason and with UCONN you at least get a basketball blueblood. They can improve football with the increased media revenue, but getting into those media markets would be huge for the Big12

Media mkts do not have the power they had 15 years ago.

Why do you want to add the ability for a school to improve into P5 category? No reason to be adding teams to this tier when ISU is near the cut line.

Huge pass on UConn and will be seen as a major letdown if that’s the result of all of this.

 

[HFCS]

Not directly, but what Arizona does will influence their decision. The PAC is in crisis with Colorado's departure; with Arizona gone they're a sinking ship. While Oregon and Washington are the premium brands in the PAC regardless at this point with USC, UCLA, and Colorado gone, even those two can't overcome the overwhelming hurdle of overcoming the MWC's GOR to add teams to get back to 10. With AZ gone it will now be 2 teams they have to find. Add in to the fact that the PAC doesn't have a TV deal and a respectable one isn't in the works - one that isn't going to come anywhere close to what the Big 12 has. I know UO and UW are already thinking about leaving, but AZ leaving might be what finally gets them to do it.

I think that 4 corners at once thing would have forced Ore/Wa to try to join B12 along with 4 corners.

It's really ASU and Utah rejecting Big 12 (or being stiff armed behind closed doors by BY, we don't know) that allow what's left of their conference to be a viable waiting platform for them.

If the 4 corners had left all at once they'd only have their in-state rivals and Stanford/Cal. That aint much.

 

[Scruff]

ASU and Utah have only their fans and administrators to blame. Compare them to the BYU fan base, beat writers, and podcasters who are suddenly the most vocal B12 cheerleaders in the conference and have yet to play a game. BYU is kind of growing on me.

I think they've always believed the Big 12 would take them no matter what. I don't think they truly realize the danger they're in.

 

[jdoggivjc]

Water is wet. Oregon cannot feel good about getting a B1G invite if they wait for the ACC to collapse. If B1G says no, I'm starting to believe they may join our national conference that is young, hip, and cool like their nike uniforms.

No **** Oregon prefers the B1G over the XII - EVERY XII school would prefer the B1G over the XII right now. I don't mind Oregon and Washington exploring where they stand with the B1G... because when they ultimately realize the B1G doesn't have a spot for them, that's when we'll finally have our 15th and 16th members.