Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jdoggivjc]

What little I heard from a "source" is backed up by some other things mid day yesterday and I have a big feeling that this whole UConn thing is something ESPN really loves. BY might like it a little but I think it's an ESPN lever among other things.

I'm sure everyone prefers the best 3-5 remaining actual sports fandoms in the Pac, but I think ESPN really likes UConn as the cherry on top and the fact that the Big 12 would easily be the greatest basketball conference in history. It would be more dominant in hoops than the SEC is in football, currently I'd say B12 hoops and SEC football are kind of equal in terms of computer ranking/results.

And I guess I'm more willing to look at UConn more seriously when the ACC falls apart, especially if VT and NCST are out of play for us. I actually think Pitt/Syracuse/UConn would be an interesting group to take on. While I trust Yormark to make the right decisions, I just think right now dealing the death blow to the Pac 12 should be the priority.

 

[HFCS]

I don't disagree. I look at SEC potentially going to 20, where do you think they're going to go. FSU & Clemson. I doubt they want three in Florida. Best bets are NCSt and VT. I don't think those two will be available, but hell I never thought we'd be talking about Oregon so who knows. Louisville is still a solid add to our conference.

If the Big Ten liked USC I have no idea why they wouldn't love Miami. Miami and USC have a lot of parallels. Private schools whose name makes people think they are public, huge cultural/brand footprint where the donors outpace boots on the ground fandom, vacation destinations, elite academically, football history.

SEC:
FSU

Big Ten:
Miami

SEC/Big Ten fight over but 100% chance they invite, I could see any of these preferring either choice:
UNC
UVA
Clemson

Borderline SEC/Big Ten adds:
Duke (I could see either looking at them for the huge brand)
BC (I could see Big Ten looking at them)
GTech (for whatever reason Big Ten used to be high on, maybe add them with Miami to have extra souther team)

Highly likely ACC leftovers for Big 12 to consider:
Pitt
VaTech
NCState
Louisville
Syracuse

The next Washington State/Oregon State:
Wake Forest

 

[jcyclonee]

They may not have a choice. By accepting Colorado they have pretty much committed to taking another team. If taking Colorado fails to pry even one more PAC team loose and forces BIG XII to take UCONN you have to wonder if it was worth it? That's the problem with adding teams, once they're in it's tough to get rid of them.

The Boston College corollary.

 

[exCyDing]

If the Big Ten liked USC I have no idea why they wouldn't love Miami. Miami and USC have a lot of parallels. Private schools whose name makes people think they are public, huge cultural/brand footprint where the donors outpace boots on the ground fandom, vacation destinations, elite academically, football history.

SEC:
FSU

Big Ten:
Miami

SEC/Big Ten fight over but 100% chance they invite, I could see any of these preferring either choice:
UNC
UVA
Clemson

Borderline SEC/Big Ten adds:
Duke (I could see either looking at them for the huge brand)
BC (I could see Big Ten looking at them)
GTech (for whatever reason Big Ten used to be high on, maybe add them with Miami to have extra souther team)

Highly likely ACC leftovers for Big 12 to consider:
Pitt
VaTech
NCState
Louisville
Syracuse

The next Washington State/Oregon State:
Wake Forest

That looks a lot like my breakdown. There's 5 ACC schools that it would very surprising if they don't get an invite from either the SEC, B10 or both. Duke might get a look at from whichever conference UNC goes to. BC and GTech make sense if the B10 Network is still printing cash with their current model.

The B12 might be in a position like they are right now - getting a choice between more schools than they have open spots for.

 

[Scruff]

I see it as B1G:
1. ND
2. Miami (FSU as a potential here.)
3. UNC
4. Washington (But the east expansion rather than west may hurt them.)
5. Virginia
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. GTech
9. Cal
10. Duke

I have a hard time believing they will do more than 20.

SEC:
1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. UNC (NC State backup)
4. Virginia Tech
5. Miami (to keep B1G outta FL)

I'm not sure who after that. I really don't think they're going over 20.

Who do the schools want? Florida State and Clemson sure seem more like SEC schools to me. UNC and VA sure seem more like Big 10 Schools.

If NC St or VT get left behind, then those are no brainers, just like Oregon and Washington.

 

[nfrine]

When do the Northwesterns and Vanderbilts get the pink slip?

 

[Gunnerclone]

When do the Northwesterns and Vanderbilts get the pick slip?

Never.

 

[HFCS]

I don't see any reason 11, 13 or 15 are a bad number for a conference. Big Ten did fantastic with 11 for a long time.

Every conference is ditching divisions.

The whole mystique about 12, 14, 16 is just forcing programs to more quickly make the decision Colorado made yesterday.

Hey Arizona, if you don't hurry UConn is already in for #14 and then we have to close shop for a bit.

Hey Washington and Oregon, we're at 14 with AZ/CO and if one of you wants to join we'll fill in with UCONN for that 16th spot...then they both join.

 

[Kinch]

The big conference realignment will actually begin after the ACC GOR expires. We are just experiencing the first rumblings.

 

[PickSix]

When do the Northwesterns and Vanderbilts get the pink slip?

Mark me down for late 2040s.

Next TV Deal cycle is further expansion of ACC teams.

The one after that the "haves" in the big conferences will demand unequal revenue sharing.

Then it's either give pink slips to the schools at the bottom, or (what I think will happen) the big name brand schools break off and form a whole different entity.

 

[Scruff]

When do the Northwesterns and Vanderbilts get the pink slip?

I think the academics should form a league. Stanford, Cal, Northwestern, Vandy, Duke ... etc. The national ivy league.

 

[exCyDing]

I don't see any reason 11, 13 or 15 are a bad number for a conference. Big Ten did fantastic with 11 for a long time.

Every conference is ditching divisions.

The whole mystique about 12, 14, 16 is just forcing programs to more quickly make the decision Colorado made yesterday.

Hey Arizona, if you don't hurry UConn is already in for #14 and then we have to close shop for a bit.

Hey Washington and Oregon, we're at 14 with AZ/CO and if one of you wants to join we'll fill in with UCONN for that 16th spot...then they both join.

My understanding is that an odd numbers of members works for an 8 game conference schedule, but not a 9 game schedule. Dropping the 9th conference game impacts the media deal (less $$ for everyone), so it's undesirable.

Anyone better at math back me up on that?

 

[Scruff]

I don't see any reason 11, 13 or 15 are a bad number for a conference. Big Ten did fantastic with 11 for a long time.

Every conference is ditching divisions.

The whole mystique about 12, 14, 16 is just forcing programs to more quickly make the decision Colorado made yesterday.

Hey Arizona, if you don't hurry UConn is already in for #14 and then we have to close shop for a bit.

Hey Washington and Oregon, we're at 14 with AZ/CO and if one of you wants to join we'll fill in with UCONN for that 16th spot...then they both join.

I'd like to say we wouldn't do that to Uconn, but then I remember what the PAC just did to SD St. Oh and our beauty pageant that OU's president asked for that had no winners.

 

[HFCS]

That looks a lot like my breakdown. There's 5 ACC schools that it would very surprising if they don't get an invite from either the SEC, B10 or both. Duke might get a look at from whichever conference UNC goes to. BC and GTech make sense if the B10 Network is still printing cash with their current model.

The B12 might be in a position like they are right now - getting a choice between more schools than they have open spots for.

Among those 5 that are almost certain to make sense for B12, I see Pitt as the best fit and the other four all have their own positives and would def be worthy additions for sure.

If Duke or GTech fall to B12 they'd definitely make sense. Not sure about BC, probably depends which other schools B12 has in NE already.

I'm very ignorant of BC's fandom and northeast college sports fandom in general. It's the only part of the country I haven't lived in or spent lots of vacationing other than visiting NYC and DC a handful of times. These Pac schools I either live near or I've spent time camping/hiking all over their state (I was just near Provo for a week and now in NorCal for a week). I have no clue if BC is someplace that just embodies FBS football and major D1 sports or if they end up in that Wake Forest/WSU/Ore St danger zone, the same place ISU/KSU found themselves several times.

 

[Scruff]

Also, the B1G media days just concluded did anyone notice?

 

[Jeremy]

I like UCONN only for football because it gives us a break. I hate them for basketball because at some point the world's toughest schedule needs a few breaks as well, especially for a school like Iowa State.

People forget that having a Top 5 SOS is great on paper, but I'm 41 years old and a life-long Cyclone, I need to see Wins too.

I'd take Arizona, OU, WA. If OU/WA aren't ready, stay at Arizona until they or some ACC folks are ready.

 

[Cyhig]

UCONN angst is because they're bad at football and a group of 5.

• They were a BCS conference school before the Big East died.
• They have 5 bball championships recently, no one else can claim that level of recent success.
• NYC market. I think brands are more important, but its been clear that Uconn has a larger presence in NYC than Rutgers.
• Eastern school that could help lure ACC schools when that collapses.

UCONN is about potential, not about what they are today. Clearly we want teams that are already Power 5 first, but if we must take a group of 5 Uconn isn't so terrible. Yormark likes them for what they can be, not what they are. Also, we are the best Bball conference today, but the B1G just added UCLA/USC. If they also add Virginia, Miami, ND, and/or UNC, they have a lot of blue bloods to claim top status. Look beyond where we are today. Look beyond where UCONN is today.

I just don’t think the college market is great in the north east. They have good basketball attendance/following, but let’s be real: football is king. If Yorkmark wants to add UConn as basketball only, I would be open to it and add a Gonzaga as well. The college football market in New England doesn’t have potential IMHO

 

[RonBurgundy]

Sounds like the media/tv networks wanting the big ten to stay the clear second for the future.

This is my worry. Are the media members telling BY to chill because they are moving the strings and eventually want OUW in the B1G down the road? Doubt BY would have any choice but to acquiesce.

 

[HFCS]

My understanding is that an odd numbers of members works for an 8 game conference schedule, but not a 9 game schedule. Dropping the 9th conference game impacts the media deal (less $$ for everyone), so it's undesirable.

Anyone better at math back me up on that?

SEC is dragging their feet at 8 games but I have a feeling other conferences could move to 10 eventually. Am I basing this on anything real that's been reported or just pulling it from my @$$?

I feel like I've definitely read something about Big Ten considering 10 games.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I see it as B1G:
1. ND
2. Miami (FSU as a potential here.)
3. UNC
4. Washington (But the east expansion rather than west may hurt them.)
5. Virginia
6. Stanford
7. Oregon
8. GTech
9. Cal
10. Duke

I have a hard time believing they will do more than 20.

SEC:
1. Florida State
2. Clemson
3. UNC (NC State backup)
4. Virginia Tech
5. Miami (to keep B1G outta FL)

I'm not sure who after that. I really don't think they're going over 20.

Who do the schools want? Florida State and Clemson sure seem more like SEC schools to me. UNC and VA sure seem more like Big 10 Schools.

If NC St or VT get left behind, then those are no brainers, just like Oregon and Washington.

It’s
1. ND
2. UNC
3. UVA

Then it’s FSU much farther down and that’s the whole list. The big ten has never been interested in Miami and while I’ve never heard anything about FSU I see them being a possible fit.