Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Cloneon]

Pac 12 is the gift the keeps on giving.
Gift 1. They pass on OuT and take Colorado.
Gift 2. They pass on the remnants of the Big 12.
Gift 3. Colorado.
Gift 4. Oregon?

Per my several posts from a high inside source at the P12 office during those times, the P12 did NOT pass on TX. They came to an impasse because TX wanted to retain their Longhorn network. And WE know in hindsight that was the poison in the B12. Also, they NEVER had any intention on the 'remnants'. They ONLY pulled CO hoping that would cripple the B12 and slide the bar for TX.
Now, the other gifts I'm totally in sync with. And as pointed out earlier CO was intended to cripple the B12 and how sweet would it be if they crippled the P12 this time around by sending OR our way.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Oregon is my number 1 choice... please make it happen!

From the standpoint of the networks, Oregon, Washington and one other going to the Big 12 would save them money and also significantly enhance the value of the Big 12 rights they have. Unless some other streaming service decides to go in head first after the remnants of the PAC 12 (and why would they), the PAC 12 is probably dead.

 

[BillBrasky4Cy]

I don't think it's likely for Nebby to turn its back on an extra $30-$50 million/year, but even if it did happen, I'm pretty sure the B1G would see it as addition by subtraction.

When you start talking about the money gap it feels like the B1G has hit a point where the money will level out. The conference has been "overvalued" so it's hard to see adding any teams that will continue to move the arrow up right? Then you look at a conference like the Big 12 and it's hard to see a scenario where they don't continue to increase their piece of the pie.

 

[Cyclonepride]

Pretty brilliant marketing. Able to get attention by piling on and the only people you're annoying are mostly outside your footprint.

 

[Statefan10]

From the standpoint of the networks, Oregon, Washington and one other going to the Big 12 would save them money and also significantly enhance the value of the Big 12 rights they have. Unless some other streaming service decides to go in head first after the remnants of the PAC 12 (and why would they), the PAC 12 is probably dead.

People have said this bout the Big 12 in the sense that we "are going to be the MAC", and it was disrespectful lol but the PAC 12 it literally on the ropes of being the Mountain West.

 

[CliveClone17]

I just don't understand how the P9 is going to negotiate a media deal of any sort right now. They have no idea who the members are going to be - things are changing by the hour right now and P9 is running out of time. There would have to be like 100 different contingencies drawn up...

 

[Gonzo]

When you start talking about the money gap it feels like the B1G has hit a point where the money will level out. The conference has been "overvalued" so it's hard to see adding any teams that will continue to move the arrow up right? Then you look at a conference like the Big 12 and it's hard to see a scenario where they don't continue to increase their piece of the pie.

Yeah I think this last media deal was the big one. Has to be, with NBC, CBS, FOX all coming in at top dollar. If it tops out at $100 mill/year per school on the back half, I don't see how the next one can get bigger.

 

[CascadeClone]

I don't see how the ACC could expand / add teams.

1. there isn't some truckload of media cash out there to be had - ask GK about that. ESPN isn't bidding themselves up. Amazon, Apple+, the CW, and ION aren't riding in like the cavalry with $1B. UConn or WV or Arizona State isn't going to get the ACC more $$ per team. And $$ per team is their issue.

2. there would be some risk of the big fish bailing, and using an expansion event to fight the GOR in court, which they could then string out for an eternity, and/or settle for less.

You can't risk giving FSU, Clemson, et al any kind of a fig leaf excuse to justify bailing on the GOR, and you certainly can't do it for $0 additional money. Just makes zero sense to me.

 

[Cyclonepride]

People have said this bout the Big 12 in the sense that we "are going to be the MAC", and it was disrespectful lol but the PAC 12 it literally on the ropes of being the Mountain West.

Yeah, losing UCLA, USC, Oregon, Washington and a couple others at the same time would have been like Texas and OU going out at the same time as Nebraska, CU, MU and A&M. We would have been screwed at that point.

 

[Clonefan94]

As much as I hate Nebby, I can see Yormark giving them a call and Nebby thinks about it. If THAT happens, Big 10 starts to be a little shaky.

If that's the case, I bet the Big 10 takes Iowa State to fill Nebby's place.

Whatever you were smoking this morning, could you send some to me? No one, I repeat, No one in the Big 10 would even entertain a call about leaving the conference right now, they make double the money of the Big 12 on just TV alone.

 

[1UNI2ISU]

Yeah I think this last media deal was the big one. Has to be, with NBC, CBS, FOX all coming in at top dollar. If it tops out at $100 mill/year per school on the back half, I don't see how the next one can get bigger.

Depends on what the cable/streaming landscape looks like in 2030 and how desperate networks are to keep eyeballs.

Gen Z does not watch sports and the middle and older millennials should be at their highest point in terms of earnings at that point. There may be one squeeze left of the orange before advertisers start bailing fully to new media.

 

[Cyched]

@Kinch birdies are chirping that LSU is tired of being second fiddle to Bama. BY is ready to pounce

 

[CascadeClone]

I just don't understand how the P9 is going to negotiate a media deal of any sort right now. They have no idea who the members are going to be - things are changing by the hour right now and P9 is running out of time. There would have to be like 100 different contingencies drawn up...

The variables were bad before, it is 100x worse now.

If you are Oregon or Arizona, do you hang on with the PAC come hell or high water and take whatever the deal and new conference members ends up being? Or do you just jump to stability and simplicity and likely more money to boot? It's not a total no brainer, but it's the argument to jump is pretty compelling.

Edit: with that "hell or high water" choice, it also comes with George Kliavkoff as your Fearless Leader. Maybe it IS a no-brainer decision.

 

[tim_redd]

I just don't understand how the P9 is going to negotiate a media deal of any sort right now. They have no idea who the members are going to be - things are changing by the hour right now and P9 is running out of time. There would have to be like 100 different contingencies drawn up...

As much as I wasn't crazy about all the previous Big 12 additions, I understand that it gave us stability in the event there were another defection or 2. PAC has no numbers now so those schools that care about sports are looking to jump off the sinking ship now.

 

[exCyDing]

this just doesnt work. they cant just do it becasue they want to. and if it was really the brand you are describing than they wouldnt be in this situation.

they simply dont have the money to do so without their big brands. they might keep the name PAC in their eventual merger with the MWC, but they are taking more than half the teams in the MWC at that point or whatever the threshold is for dissolving the conference.

As if the PAC needed to find another way to sabotage themselves, holding out on presenting the offers they do have to members may have ****** their 2024 and put the conference in jeopardy of entirely collapsing.

Presenting in March, April or May could have triggered an exodus then, but it would have given the conference a chance to backfill with MWC schools. New members would have needed around $10M a year on a 5 year deal to cover their buyout ($16M) and what they would have made in the MWC ($6.5M). By waiting past June, those schools would need closer to $14M, which is starting to get really close to the offers the PAC was allegedly getting before CO left.

They took a bad situation where the PAC would have become almost more MWC than PAC into one where the PAC might just cease to exist. If they get down to 6 schools, I think it's almost more likely the MWC takes them all on and rebrands itself as the PAC.

 

[NorthCyd]

Right now the Nebby brand is taking a hit and there is a small segment of Nebby fans getting restless. Nebby’s jump to the Big 10 came with a big price and now they have to deal with UCLA and USC. I doubt they do it now, but I can see in five or 10 years, IF Yormark can somehow close the gap a little.

 

[jcyclonee]

Well hell I can ask for a threesome of me, Jennifer Lawrence and ScarJo don't mean it's going to happen.

Doesn't hurt to ask.

 

[jcyclonee]

It would be weird if Oregon and Washington didn’t come together.

Sort of. I can see a scenario where the BIG would take Wash and Stanford.

 

[LLCoolCY]

Why would you want to join the PAC12 right now? At best you are joining a dying conference that still has 0 media deal or proposal for one. These schools might want to be in whatever conference emerges from the left overs but right now why tie yourself to a sinking ship? I don't believe this at all

Because whatever deal eventually is signed, it's almost 100% certain to be better than the 7 mil or less that these teams make in the American, CUSA, or Sunbelt or whatever

Right now the PACX still gets a BCS bid for the winner assuming they can back fill and stay a conference. That is the only chance the listed schools to somehow raise their brand before the P5 is reduced to the Super P3 conference. If your left with out a chair when the realignment happens in 10? years there won't be a path to play with the big boys.
Honestly even a reduced PacX media deal would likely be more than MWC or AAC contracts they are currently on too.

 

[Mr.G.Spot]

Empathy, my man. We are Oregon State and Washington State. We’re just fortunate enough to be in the Midwest instead of the west coast.

The money grab and realignment stuff is complete ********. This isn’t what college athletics are supposed to be. I’m glad we came out on top but I’m not gonna **** on the decent schools that have been relegated to a lesser tier.

Appreciating an opponent after win is alright. Especially when they were drug into it by the bigger guys. A couple bounces in the other direction and we’d be looking forward to some MACtion.

You can be empathetic and still ask the question - show me a post, a person, or anything where any of the pac 12 schools felt bad about what we have gone thru?

Osu and wsu didn't think about us for three seconds.