Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[jcyclonee]

I don't think the B10 wants or will want Oregon and Wash. They have their west coast brands. They will save any remaining spots in conference for ND (+Stan potentially) and east coast schools like Virginia and North Carolina when the ACC explodes in a few years. I think there's a legitimate chance that either or both Oregon and Wash end up in the BXII in 2024

I'm tending to agree with you about Wash and Oregon. I don't think the BIG wants them now. It feels like they will almost be forced to join the Big 12, unless the SEC decides to swoop in with an offer. If Wash and Oregon join the Big 12, I do believe it could (could, not would) raise the value of our media rights deal by a bit too.

I just don't see how the Big 12 doesn't expand to 18 in the near future. There's no good reason not to add AZ, Utah, and ASU (well, Utah fans have been diks but from a fiscal and athletic standpoint, it makes sense). Stanford is a question mark to me. Athletically, it's a school with pretty bad local support but a pretty good national brand. With Colorado and Washington joining the Big 12, does the Big 12 become more palatable for Stanford.

The next step for BY would be to work with the ACC to see if the two conferences can create some additional revenue streams and attempt to close the gap between the ACC/Big 12 contracts ant the BIG/SEC contracts. They probably can't close the gap enough to completely level the playing surface but, maybe.

 

[MugNight]

Northwestern has played in the big ten championship game the same number of times as Iowa…

And looked a hell of a lot more competitive the last time they each played in a Rose Bowl

 

[Cyhig]

Northwestern has played in the big ten championship game the same number of times as Iowa…

Of course, we are talking about the Big 10 West instead of the SEC east like Vandy.

 

[NorthCyd]

F it. Go big.

The PAC is already dead and the Big 12 killed it. Finish the job.

Add Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State, Oregon, Washington and UConn and be the clearest number three humanly possible.

MhVer said the networks don't want to pay that much and asked to stop at 16. I know MhVer is full of it, but honestly that makes a lot of sense. There is a pro rata clause in the tv deal for P5 teams, but that doesn't mean the networks want the Big XII to go crazy and add any P5 school they can. Plus I don't know if UCONN would even qualify under that clause for football, so you're likely talking about reducing payouts at that point.

 

[Remo Gaggi]

I never want to see Nebraska back in the Big 12. Ever. Let them rot.

We could trade Baylor for Nebraska. Although I'm not sure which one, the Big12 or the BIG, would come out worse in that deal.

 

[cyfan92]

Northwestern has played in the big ten championship game the same number of times as Iowa…

1) IOWA and KKKirk have dropped the ball miserably not capitalizing on a pathetic West

2)Fitzy is AMAZING, but 3 of their last 4 seasons are 1-8 in conference play with 4 total wins since NIL, transfer era took off...

3) Northwestern Basketball has a 45% winning percentage (33% in conference) over the past decade. Take out 2016/17 and 2022/23 seasons and they are HORRIFIC.

 

[LLCoolCY]

I don't think the B10 wants or will want Oregon and Wash. They have their west coast brands. They will save any remaining spots in conference for ND (+Stan potentially) and east coast schools like Virginia and North Carolina when the ACC explodes in a few years. I think there's a legitimate chance that either or both Oregon and Wash end up in the BXII in 2024

It was rumored that USC didn't want Oregon added at the time that they and UCLA/USC jumped to the big 10 due to recruiting issues and their potential as a risk to their west coast supremacy as the Power of CFB out west.
I do believe Warren was really the only one lusting for UW/ORE then No able to sell the AD's to add them then was the start to his demise as commish. With Warren now gone there isn't a advocate in the league office to add especially if it results in a lower share for the other B1G schools. Their eyes have shifted from expansion to the SE and as always ND.

I wouldn't be surprised if we learn Wash/Ore even offered taking a lesser share of the Media deal to jump to the Big 10 and were rejected. If that happened they may realize the B12 is their best chance to thrive and become the #3 power conference. Becoming the P3 should always be the B12 goal.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

1) IOWA and KKKirk have dropped the ball miserably not capitalizing on a pathetic West

2)Fitzy is AMAZING, but 3 of their last 4 seasons are 1-8 in conference play with 4 total wins since NIL, transfer era took off...

3) Northwestern Basketball has a 45% winning percentage (33% in conference) over the past decade. Take out 2016/17 and 2022/23 seasons and they are HORRIFIC.

Oh I know I was just responding to the person saying they would rather be WSU or OSU than schools like vandy, Rutgers, northwestern. Just an absurd statement

 

[Gunnerclone]

I'm tending to agree with you about Wash and Oregon. I don't think the BIG wants them now. It feels like they will almost be forced to join the Big 12, unless the SEC decides to swoop in with an offer. If Wash and Oregon join the Big 12, I do believe it could (could, not would) raise the value of our media rights deal by a bit too.

I just don't see how the Big 12 doesn't expand to 18 in the near future. There's no good reason not to add AZ, Utah, and ASU (well, Utah fans have been diks but from a fiscal and athletic standpoint, it makes sense). Stanford is a question mark to me. Athletically, it's a school with pretty bad local support but a pretty good national brand. With Colorado and Washington joining the Big 12, does the Big 12 become more palatable for Stanford.

The next step for BY would be to work with the ACC to see if the two conferences can create some additional revenue streams and attempt to close the gap between the ACC/Big 12 contracts ant the BIG/SEC contracts. They probably can't close the gap enough to completely level the playing surface but, maybe.

I think the PAC outside of the LA schools has always been way overhyped. Big 10 wanted LA, they got LA. I don’t think they give a **** about Seattle. Or Oregon for that matter. It was always about LA for them.

 

[ghyland7]

I agree that Utah fans are almost as insufferable as Iowa fans, but honestly, having the holy war in-conference would be incredibly fun. We put up with Iowa fans all year, we can handle a week of Utah fans every other year.

 

[CascadeClone]

I am not sure at all if adding 4 PAC teams makes sense. 2 might be the limit. In terms of value to ESPN/Fox (which is what matters), that one late game is decent. But that's it. The rest is meh and probably dilutive.

Adding 2 teams gives 9 more conference games and 4-5 noncons. If that is CU and AZ, you are basically getting a decent (not great) late game per week. That's probably enough to float 2 teams - my math says its ~6% lower than 31.7 but probably close enough to stay same.

Adding 4 teams gives 18 more conference games and 8-10 noncons. You get the same decent (not great) late game, but there isn't really a second spot for another decent (not great) late game. So now the value doesn't increase in proportion and it becomes more dilutive. My math shows this ~17% lower, and I don't think the TV folks would just eat that.

The caveat to this is Oregon. Oregon would bring more decent games in the regular season (since ranked often and branding), as well as probably a great noncon. My math with them shows the value goes UP about 10% over the current deal with 2 teams, and breakeven if adding 4 teams.

TLDR; I think the two most likely outcomes are:
1) Colorado and Arizona only
OR
2) Colorado, Oregon, Arizona, and #4

For the 4th team ASU is my guess. UW will wait for B1G. Utah is being a-holes, plus a 2nd team from Arizona (pop 7.5M) makes a lot more sense than a 2nd team from Utah (pop 3M)).

 

[isucy86]

why does a schools perception of their place in college athletes or academics matter here? That’s where I am going with this.

I am all for adding as many Pac12 schools as ESPN/FOX are willing to pay the full $31.7M. Gaining territory (states) is crucial to growing the Big12 brand. But I feel there is a limit to home much ESPN/FOX are willing to invest- probably 4 (but maybe 6 if Oregon is added).

I think networks still value markets, so Cal or Stanford would create a Big12 presence in the Bay Area/San Jose MSA. The Networks might find that valuable.

But school culture always matters when considering conference membership. They should be differences. Part of the reason I think academics is overblown.

But in the case of Cal Bears- California state politics is a 600lb gorilla. They tried to impose Cal on the Big10 after UCLA jumped ship. Now UCLA has to subsidize Cal. The California legislature is working on legislation to require their state school athletic departments share revenue with student-athletes. Could that legislation have some impact on non-California schools. I believe California schools are restricted from using state money to travel to states who's politics differs from California's. Cal might be too much of a pain in the arse.

 

[CycloneDaddy]

I can't tell... is she happy or mad about the current state of college realignment.

Pretty sure she is happy because they are shaking Yes.

 

[Urbandale2013]

The agenda is pretty short and the only athletic item on the agenda pertains to the football coach's employment. I'm not sure how these things work so it certainly could go on a tangent or there could be other items. The timing and suddenness is interesting though.

edit: My original link was bad. Here is a pic of the preliminary notice.

View attachment 114862

The only item likely not directly related to realignment would be the Portland stuff. Updating the coaching contract and presidents contract would be required with a new conference.

 

[cyfan92]

Oh I know I was just responding to the person saying they would rather be WSU or OSU than schools like vandy, Rutgers, northwestern. Just an absurd statement

I'd rather be Wassu and win 75% of my football games and 75% of my basketball games, go to great bowl games, possibly make a CFP as the G5 at large, and have a great chance at making March Madness annually versus getting dunked on every year in MBB and Football.

May not be a common or popular belief, but just my thoughts..

 

[jcyclonee]

Can't they drop down to the same level as UNI and NDSU?

Yep. They could also do something like join the West Coast Conference or Big West conference and drop football as a scholarship sport.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I'd rather be Wassu and win 75% of my football games and 75% of my basketball games, go to great bowl games, possibly make a CFP as the G5 at large, and have a great chance at making March Madness annually versus getting dunked on every year in MBB and Football.

May not be a common or popular belief, but just my thoughts..

There’s no guarantee that happens though. You drop down and all things do not remain equal. Recruiting, facilities, etc. all go down a level and eventually you’re just in the same mix as the rest of the G5 schools.

 

[jcyclonee]

The only item likely not directly related to realignment would be the Portland stuff. Updating the coaching contract and presidents contract would be required with a new conference.

You are correct. It's also simply a notice. It is not a formal agenda at this time.

 

[State2015]

I never want to see Nebraska back in the Big 12. Ever. Let them rot.

I hate Nebraska too but they’re definitely not rotting… fat paychecks and they’re still in one of the easiest conferences with plenty of crap teams to beat up on whenever they start to have a pulse again

 

[Clonefan94]

Why does CU fit culturally and not Cal. Would you say CU and Cal are closer than CU and ISU? And why does culture of the school matter? And would the B12 have taken USC, if so how to they match culturally?

Cal has more athletic history than ISU and most any other B12 team.

Please expand on what a monetary fit is. I have no idea.

Edit: Is BU a cultural fit to the B12 and why?

Cultural fit, to a large extent is overblown, imo. If cultural fit mattered, we'd be going after Wazzu hard. They have a good fanbase and a school that cares about the football team. I actually wished we lived in a world where that was the valuable part. It's not though, it's what value do you have in the TV market.

Then again, if we lived in that world, it's doubtful any conference would be in the situation they are now. Hell, it would just be amazing if playing good football even mattered. I'm a pretty big college football fan, but one conference in particular is so watered down with bad football teams, most of their games are unwatchable and they've got the biggest TV contract out there.