Agree. And the reason Arizona and Colorado aren’t jumping has nothing to do with Big 12 aggressiveness. They know the option will still be open once they get the final PAC numbers.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
It isn't logistics and scheduling. It's money.
The July 2024 door is closed unless someone pays through the nose.
Yep completely agree. I should have been more clear. I meant for Colorado and Arizona what’s the point of sticking together for 5 more years in the PAC for equal (likely less money) to the Big 12s deal? The situation isn’t going to get better so make the jump now. I mean if you are waiting to see a number from the PAC so you don’t leave early even if by some grace of God the PAC gets a deal that makes more per team than the Big 12, it will be just beating it. So again, be proactive and jump now because who knows what your options will be in 5 years.
I wonder if Colorado and Arizona make the jump, if that lights a fire under them to face the realization that they could be left behind.
I can't read the article but his tweet implies that maybe Wilners tone about CU leaving is changing?
Just open in incognito mode. Here's the story since I don't consider using incognito any kind of real paywall. Mods feel free to delete if you want.
Pac-12 survival: Colorado’s conundrum and the unique challenge of a Boulder existence
The Buffaloes seem academically tethered to the West Coast, but their athletic past is tied to Texas
By JON WILNER | [email protected] | Bay Area News Group
PUBLISHED: July 25, 2023 at 12:33 p.m. | UPDATED: July 26, 2023 at 4:18 a.m.
One event, two athletic directors and an immeasurable difference in public commitments encapsulated the Pac-12’s wobbly present.
There was Utah’s Mark Harlan, sharing the main stage with commissioner George Kliavkoff late last week at the preseason media extravaganza in Las Vegas. Harlan fielded questions from the reporters and, in the process, doubled down on Utah’s allegiance.
“Our words and actions speak for themselves,” he said. “We are proud members of this conference.”
A few hours later, Colorado’s Rick George took the same stage for a 15-minute panel discussion on the College Football Playoff, then declined to take questions as he scurried out the rear exit.
“I’ve got a flight to catch,” he said.
Utah and Colorado joined the Pac-12 on the same day, July 1, 2011. By all accounts, the Utes are committed to a future in the conference despite the protracted media rights negotiations that have frustrated fans and campus officials alike.
But Colorado’s status isn’t as clear in the public sphere, with speculation swirling that the university could depart for the Big 12 as early as this week — a move that some believe would trigger an exodus and decimate the century-old league.
Would the Buffaloes leave for the Big 12 even if the annual broadcast revenue from ESPN and Fox ($31.7 million per school per year) is comparable to what they stand to earn in the Pac-12?
Would they accept an invitation from the Big 12 before seeing an official offer on the table in the Pac-12?
The Hotline won’t claim to know how the saga within a saga will end (or when it will end). Instead, this exercise is intended to illuminate the issues at the heart of Colorado’s decision — issues that are as unique as CU’s geography.
For all the uncertainty, three things are apparent:
1. Realignment rumors and grapevine position move in lockstep.
The closer your position to the front lines of college football — the space occupied by fans, media, coaches and even athletic directors — the more fervent the speculation that Colorado is prepared to leave the Pac-12.
But reverse course and head toward the ivory towers, where Colorado chancellor Phil DiStefano and his nine colleagues are in regular discussions about the Pac-12’s future, and the noise seems to subside.
2. Colorado’s situation is as complex as the map is simple.
The campus is not located on the West Coast or fixed in the Pacific Time Zone (even for half the year). In fact, it’s 200 miles closer to Dallas than Los Angeles. The school was in the Big Eight/Big 12 for 62 years and has been a member of the Pac-12 for just 12.
Yet in vibe, culture and politics, Boulder is more California than Texas, more West Coast than Southern Plains.
3. Colorado’s identity is at stake in realignment, but which identity?
The decision to remain in the Pac-12 or return to the Big 12 illuminates the university’s quest to define itself athletically and academically. What’s best for one might not be best for the other.
Athletically, a connection to Texas, to a greater extent than even California, is necessary for CU’s football recruiting. And there are more blue-chip prospects in the former than the latter: 63 per year in Texas compared to 33 annually in California. (Details below).
The power structure within Boulder reflects the potential for a Big 12 lean, as well.
Coach Deion Sanders, who has transformed the Buffaloes’ national profile since his appointment last winter, views the Lone Star State as imperative. Meanwhile, the chancellor, DiStefano, and athletic director, George, are nearing retirement. Their legacies are at stake.
Will they be swayed by Sanders? What are their priorities? Where are their loyalties? How deep are the scars from the Pac-12’s many missteps under former commissioner Larry Scott?
But when it comes to issues that impact the university in totality, including both the source and mouth of Colorado’s enrollment pipeline, the school seems more suited for the West Coast.
— The source: Colorado welcomed 36,000 students in the fall of 2022, according to the university’s office of data analytics, and slightly more than half (56 percent) were in-state residents.
The out-of-state student population tilts heavily to California. The Golden State is CU’s golden ticket — hello, full-cost tuition! — and accounts for 10 percent of the school’s total enrollment.
There are three times as many students from California as those from Texas.
— The mouth: Colorado has approximately 300,000 living alumni, according to the university. About 50 percent reside in Colorado, while the out-of-state alumni base tilts substantially to Northern and Southern California specifically and the West Coast generally.
There are more alumni in San Francisco than Colorado Springs, more in Seattle than Dallas.
Donations to the athletic department from California increased 903 percent during CU’s first four seasons in the Pac-12, the Boulder Daily Camera reported in 2015.
“Where we play is taking us to where our people are,” George said at the time.
(Note: The alumni data cited above is from 2016.)
CA people flocked to Boulder before they were in the PAC.
This. The percentage of students leaving Cali to study at CU because the football team plays an annual road game at Stanford or Cal is probably less than 1%.
Yep - CU has always been a west coast-heavy student population. It's got zero to do with athletic conference.
You are right. I looked up many of the drafts and a good chunk of college prospects were still drafted high. The one draft with Kwame Brown, Eddy Curry, and Tyson Chander in top 4 soured my memory.
Personally I think the question of WAOU getting close to the Big 10 dollars is irrelevant. The reported PAC $ being floated vs. the Big 10 gap is massive, and they aren't going to get close without pulling enough revenue from schools that would be Big 12 targets (at least CU and AZ, possibly Utah and ASU), tilting that decision to jump. Enticing OU and UW to stay if they have a Big 10 invite in hand might cost the remaining 8 at least $80M per year. There simply doesn't look like there will be enough total money in the media deal to keep UW and OU close to the Big 10 without pushing others into the Big 12.
I think the outcome is simple. If the Big 10 offers, they go. If the Big 10 doesn't offer, they don't have any leverage unless the Big 12 offers only them and they can squeeze enough money from the others through unequal revenue sharing to stay.