Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

After Big 12 media days it seems the conference has momentum and vision. They have unity and excitement.

Seems custom made for Colorado and Prime Time to make a big ol' splash.

But a conference with OU and Washington can absolutely be viable in the way our ten team league was.

But only if someone is willing to write the checks.

If those two are willing to stay and anchor it, it's plausible. But it would still be a step down.

Losing USC is the equivalent if we had lost Texas the first round of realignment. The B12 wouldn't have stayed as viable as it did in the 2010s without UT.
 
If the Pac12 can get a better deal then the Big12 then it’s simple, they stay.

If they are getting less, which is the probable outcome, then why stay? Why? Because they want to be in the Pac12.

I want more teams east and west because if makes it a National conference.
If they are getting less (like we all believe they will) it depends how much less. Keep it within 5mil and they stay because the presidents don’t want to leave the Pac.
 
Have to actually give GK credit. May be smarter than we all think. I do believe he knew the entire time they were in deep trouble, so he was going to push out as long as possible to try and force everyone to stay for a shorter deal. Keep sprinkling in BS info like, “Hey here’s a deadline or we are making real progress, etc” because he knows they all want to stick together and are willing to at least see a deal.

The art of BS’ing is not easy at this level and so far he’s kept it rolling for a year. Some of the stuff he touts makes him look stupid but it’s the price he’s willing to pay to force this deal to happen and then when it gets time to do this again he steps down, retires or whatever and gets to say he kept the league together and did his job.


Or he’s just a moron and I am giving him too much credit.
I would make myself look stupid for 5 million a year.
 
I would make myself look stupid for 5 million a year.

i find it more helpful to use % increase/decrease when you get to these numbers. Then imagine it like you got offered the same % raise at your job for basically doing the exact same thing with different people but it’s guaranteed to be the same people; if that makes sense.
 
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I think it is clear that CU and Zona would rather be in the Pac. If not, they would have already made the move.

I'm also thinking the B1G doesn't want UW or UO. The B1G can have whoever they want whenever they want them. So no invite tells me as of now they don't want them. Maybe they want to see how things shake out with the ACC first, or maybe there is never interest there at all.
The question is not whether each school would prefer to stay in the P12, but whether under this new TV can they afford to stay in the conference? If the money is within 5 to maybe 10 million, I would expect them to stay as long as the difference is doable. Both schools are receiving millions of dollars from their respective school general fund now, I while the presidents would like to stay with the academics of the P12, how much more are they willing to take out of their schools general fund to pay for that to continue? This past year Arizona pumped in 31 million into athletics while Colorado was pushing 12 million. That number will go up if the media revenue goes down.

 
The question is not whether each school would prefer to stay in the P12, but whether under this new TV can they afford to stay in the conference? If the money is within 5 to maybe 10 million, I would expect them to stay as long as the difference is doable. Both schools are receiving millions of dollars from their respective school general fund now, I while the presidents would like to stay with the academics of the P12, how much more are they willing to take out of their schools general fund to pay for that to continue? This past year Arizona pumped in 31 million into athletics while Colorado was pushing 12 million. That number will go up if the media revenue goes down.


That’s another point. The ADs can probably survive as an entity at a pretty low number but eventually you get to where WSU is and then even worse. And nothing is getting cheaper or staying at the same costs. Maybe Pollard wasn’t lying when he said that ISU would have been completely ****** if things would have gone bad in our last realignment sagas.
 
The question is not whether each school would prefer to stay in the P12, but whether under this new TV can they afford to stay in the conference? If the money is within 5 to maybe 10 million, I would expect them to stay as long as the difference is doable. Both schools are receiving millions of dollars from their respective school general fund now, I while the presidents would like to stay with the academics of the P12, how much more are they willing to take out of their schools general fund to pay for that to continue? This past year Arizona pumped in 31 million into athletics while Colorado was pushing 12 million. That number will go up if the media revenue goes down.

Are you using the total allocated figure for those amounts? Not disagreeing with anything you said just couldn’t find an explanation for how that column was created.
 
The question is not whether each school would prefer to stay in the P12, but whether under this new TV can they afford to stay in the conference? If the money is within 5 to maybe 10 million, I would expect them to stay as long as the difference is doable. Both schools are receiving millions of dollars from their respective school general fund now, I while the presidents would like to stay with the academics of the P12, how much more are they willing to take out of their schools general fund to pay for that to continue? This past year Arizona pumped in 31 million into athletics while Colorado was pushing 12 million. That number will go up if the media revenue goes down.


And just not the money. How much do UW and UO push for unequal revenue share? Will it all be merit based, eg, best bowl game? Or will it be some crap deal like our old conference that rewarded TV appearances? Then you add on the length of the GOR. Cherry on top is you know 2 teams want to bolt to the B1G anytime.

These are all hard pills for CU and UA to swallow. I think they are still in play.
 
I’d be willing to bet a decent amount that at this point BY has had substantial talks with UO and WU.
Honestly I was thinking literally this about 10 minutes ago. Big 12 would need an INCREASED payout if they came. Based on the brands and adding that 4th time zone would justify an increase.
 
Pac12 schools will give GK every chance to present a deal they can live with up to a point. But they won't be backed into a corner by GK. These are all smart people with wealthy boosters making sure their beloved schools don't make a misstep.

Sure previous fan or media imposed deadlines have passed. But obviously they didn't match what schools like Colorado or Arizona set as their deadlines.

I am sure Presidents and AD's would like to make a decision ASAP. But the reality is there are 2 groups that can impose a deadline: the Big12 or Pac12 future media partner.
 
Pac12 schools will give GK every chance to present a deal they can live with up to a point. But they won't be backed into a corner by GK. These are all smart people with wealthy boosters making sure their beloved schools don't make a misstep.

Sure previous fan or media imposed deadlines have passed. But obviously they didn't match what schools like Colorado or Arizona set as their deadlines.

I am sure Presidents and AD's would like to make a decision ASAP. But the reality is there are 2 groups that can impose a deadline: the Big12 or Pac12 future media partner.

The Big 12 should let this play out.

The vibe is good. No reason to strong-arm a school into the league.

Come if you want. Or don't

We'll be just fine either way
 
The question is not whether each school would prefer to stay in the P12, but whether under this new TV can they afford to stay in the conference? If the money is within 5 to maybe 10 million, I would expect them to stay as long as the difference is doable. Both schools are receiving millions of dollars from their respective school general fund now, I while the presidents would like to stay with the academics of the P12, how much more are they willing to take out of their schools general fund to pay for that to continue? This past year Arizona pumped in 31 million into athletics while Colorado was pushing 12 million. That number will go up if the media revenue goes down.

It will be interesting how this new found media rights money is spent by the Big10 and SEC. Do they have fiscal discipline and use new money selectively on variable expenses like coaches salaries and capital projects/debt reduction? Or do they spend like sailors on their first leave in 6 months?

That fiscal discipline also applies to Big12, ACC and Pac12, albeit to a lesser degree. While the core media rights deals for those 3 conference will be steady (or possibly decline for Pac10) over the next 6-7 years. Each conference will receive an additional $12-$15M annually from the CFP. That's a sizeable amount for AD's go forward to manage their variable costs. And in the Pac10's case, offset getting less in their media deal.
 
After Big 12 media days it seems the conference has momentum and vision. They have unity and excitement.

Seems custom made for Colorado and Prime Time to make a big ol' splash.

But a conference with OU and Washington can absolutely be viable in the way our ten team league was.

But only if someone is willing to write the checks.
I don't think the 10 team Pac is anywhere near as strong as the 10 team B12. WAOR are good programs, but I would put their value much, much below UT and OU. And I would put our remaining 8 above theirs as well. Add in the geography and fan engagement issues they have and it is a tough hill to climb.
 
Honestly I was thinking literally this about 10 minutes ago. Big 12 would need an INCREASED payout if they came. Based on the brands and adding that 4th time zone would justify an increase.

I've had this thought too. I just can't get over how much BY has repeatedly emphasized the phrases "4th time zone" and "coast-to-coast" when talking about expansion. Adding Colorado alone wouldn't exactly fulfil those talking points...

I also can't help but notice how radio silent both Oregon and Washington have been. More often than not in realignment, it's the moves you don't see that happen as opposed to ones you do.

I certainly wouldn't count on Oregon and Washington joining, but it's possible...
 
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uconn is coming. That means we need 3. or 1.
Big 12 wont take uconn unless it gets one from the PAC.
 

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