Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[isucy86]

There’s a reason WA and OR don’t have a B10 invite. One possible explanation could be that the B10 doesn’t want them. The other possibility is Fox doesn’t want to pay up for them for this media deal.

The thing is, it’s one, it’s the other, or it’s both. There’s no 3rd explanation.

To say the Big10 doesn't want them might be accurate, but doesn't mean the vote is 14-0 against. Attitudes can change by school and dynamic can change.

IMO the Big10 will warm to OR WA if any Pac12 schools join Big12. Also if the SEC looks to expand again, they Big10 might feel they need to as well, again.

 

[isucy86]

BIG won't take Oregon or Washington this cycle. Fox has said they won't pay 1 cent more for them. It's a big hit to divide pie 2 more ways without the pie getting bigger.

It isnt a big concern either. The PAC isnt going to grab Pitt, VT, NC State and louisville when the ACC collapes.

The PAC is geographically limited. even if it stays together, it isnt a threat to the Big 12.

FOX owns BTN and they had a big voice in Big10 media deal, but they let other media players (NBC & CBS) pay bigger chunks.

FOX doesn't have to pay for OR WA- they just have to convince NBC, CBS, Amazon, etc to pay for the additional inventory. And full price may not be needed.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

The brands left from the ACC/PAC will still be stronger than what is in the Big 12. They are all and have been power 5 teams for a long time. The Big 12 is a mish mash of mid majors, leftovers, and religious schools moving their way up. Once the ACC loses teams it will backfill. You don't think West Virginia wouldn't jump in a heartbeat to play closer games and rejoin their rivalry with Pitt? What about Cincinnati and UCF? Yep they'd go too. It's going to destabilize the conference again when it happens. Or course that is probably years away but it's going to happen. Just like the Big 12 fought to survive the ACC and PAC will do the same.

No, I do not think any of the B12 teams will jump ship to join the ACC. Because it will no longer be the ACC but the corpse of what was once the ACC. What is left over after Clemson, FSU, Virginia, N. Carolina and others have left. Do not think for a moment that schools like Pitt, NC State and others will be begging for an invite to the B12. WV will be playing those schools, but it will be in the B12, not the ACC.

 

[Clonehomer]

You do realize Oregon and Washington have more media rights value that half the current Big10.

Who knows why the Big 10 didn't take OR WA last summer, but there is no way USC & UCLA joined the Big10 to be isolated. Just a matter of time.

There's having value and there's giving a reason for TV networks to pony up more money. As we're seeing with the PAC, the money just isn't there for new contracts. Then add in that most of the TV timeslots are full. Adding another game a week doesn't really bring in more money. It just adds amother streaming game that really isn't worth much.

 

[JayhawkScott]

No, I do not think any of the B12 teams will jump ship to join the ACC. Because it will no longer be the ACC but the corpse of what was once the ACC. What is left over after Clemson, FSU, Virginia, N. Carolina and others have left. Do not think for a moment that schools like Pitt, NC State and others will be begging for an invite to the B12. WV will be playing those schools, but it will be in the B12, not the ACC.

And we're in the corpse of what used to be the Big 12. I'm going to root for KU regardless of what happens, but to think our league is in a good position to add ACC or PAC schools when our league has been the most poached is a little overly optimistic. Seems more like wishful thinking.

 

[BCClone]

The brands left from the ACC/PAC will still be stronger than what is in the Big 12. They are all and have been power 5 teams for a long time. The Big 12 is a mish mash of mid majors, leftovers, and religious schools moving their way up. Once the ACC loses teams it will backfill. You don't think West Virginia wouldn't jump in a heartbeat to play closer games and rejoin their rivalry with Pitt? What about Cincinnati and UCF? Yep they'd go too. It's going to destabilize the conference again when it happens. Or course that is probably years away but it's going to happen. Just like the Big 12 fought to survive the ACC and PAC will do the same.

If the PAC teams have more value, then why isn’t a TV deal done? Once the Big 10 and SEC raid the top 6 teams in the ACC, they will have teams with less value than the big 12.

I would put the blunt down and take a nap

 

[SolterraCyclone]

The brands left from the ACC/PAC will still be stronger than what is in the Big 12. They are all and have been power 5 teams for a long time. The Big 12 is a mish mash of mid majors, leftovers, and religious schools moving their way up. Once the ACC loses teams it will backfill. You don't think West Virginia wouldn't jump in a heartbeat to play closer games and rejoin their rivalry with Pitt? What about Cincinnati and UCF? Yep they'd go too. It's going to destabilize the conference again when it happens. Or course that is probably years away but it's going to happen. Just like the Big 12 fought to survive the ACC and PAC will do the same.

This isn’t realistic. Neither is the ACC and P12 merging. If a merger between the two was possible, it would have happened by now. And if the ACC wanted to add WVU they could have for pennies on the dollar summer of 2022.

You’re right a conference of what’s remaining in the PAC and ACC would be stronger brand-wise than the B12. But you’re absolutely ignoring the fact the the valuable brands currently in the ACC, won’t actually be in the ACC if ever a merger became viable (not sure Oregon or Washington will be in the P12 at that point either). None of those 7 ACC schools were meeting to figure out how to break the GOR in order to establish a PACC conference.

 

[isucy86]

There's having value and there's giving a reason for TV networks to pony up more money. As we're seeing with the PAC, the money just isn't there for new contracts. Then add in that most of the TV timeslots are full. Adding another game a week doesn't really bring in more money. It just adds amother streaming game that really isn't worth much.

What we've seen is networks aren't willing to pay for 10 or 12 teams, if they can get 2 brands.

FOX was able to get USC & UCLA to Big10 without paying for the other 10 teams.

ESPN was able to get OU & UT to SEC without having to pay for 8 other Big12 teams at 2024 prices. The Big12's new deal is an extension of a 10 year old deal.

Instead of ESPN/FOX paying $500M to each the Pac and Big12 in new deals, so far ESPN has invested around $350M in Big12 & SEC(OU/UT), while FOX has invested $150M in Big12.

Are ESPN & FOX's actions a reflection of the media recession or a new selective approach with a vision toward conference consolidation.

 

[SEIOWA CLONE]

And we're in the corpse of what used to be the Big 12. I'm going to root for KU regardless of what happens, but to think our league is in a good position to add ACC or PAC schools when our league has been the most poached is a little overly optimistic. Seems more like wishful thinking.

Not really being overly optimistic, if the better 6 to 8 schools leave the ACC to join the B10 and SEC, what is there left to stick around for? Bringing in Marshall or Coastal Carolina?
You are correct the B12 has lost teams, but I think we are a stronger league now than we ever were before, why, because I think every team in the league understands, that they are not going to get a ticket to the B10 or SEC and therefore they are going to make do with what they have.

As long as the league can continue to provide 40 to 50 million per year to each school, the league can and gets an automatic bid to the playoff, the league will survive.

 

[Gonzo]

BIG won't take Oregon or Washington this cycle. Fox has said they won't pay 1 cent more for them. It's a big hit to divide pie 2 more ways without the pie getting bigger.

It isnt a big concern either. The PAC isnt going to grab Pitt, VT, NC State and louisville when the ACC collapes.

The PAC is geographically limited. even if it stays together, it isnt a threat to the Big 12.

There've been reports about Apple and/or Amazon coming in with an additional streaming deal to help fund a WA and OR move to the B1G, plus they'd come in at a reduced share.

 

[Clonehomer]

What we've seen is networks aren't willing to pay for 10 or 12 teams, if they can get 2 brands.

FOX was able to get USC & UCLA to Big10 without paying for the other 10 teams.

ESPN was able to get OU & UT to SEC without having to pay for 8 other Big12 teams at 2024 prices. The Big12's new deal is an extension of a 10 year old deal.

Instead of ESPN/FOX paying $500M to each the Pac and Big12 in new deals, so far ESPN has invested around $350M in Big12 & SEC(OU/UT), while FOX has invested $150M in Big12.

Are ESPN & FOX's actions a reflection of the media recession or a new selective approach with a vision toward conference consolidation.

Perhaps. But when UCLA/USC were added there was a new contract that these teams warranted additional timeslots. Unless the networks see the addition of OU/UW as an opportunity to show an additional game, it doesn't really bring in any additional revenue. Part of the issue they're going to have is that the PAC isn't really owning any timeslots right now. So it isn't that you can say that you're moving broadcast rights from one conference to another like with OuT in the Big12. It's just an additional expense without additional revenue.

 

[Clonehomer]

There've been reports about Apple and/or Amazon coming in with an additional streaming deal to help fund a WA and OR move to the B1G, plus they'd come in at a reduced share.

But aren't the Big10's streaming rights already taken up with the current deals? Apple or Amazon would then get the last pick every week. Which, considering some of those Big10 West barn burners last year, would be pretty bad games. Is getting Northwestern vs Indiana worth $100M per year?

 

[Gonzo]

But aren't the Big10's streaming rights already taken up with the current deals? Apple or Amazon would then get the last pick every week. Which, considering some of those Big10 West barn burners last year, would be pretty bad games. Is getting Northwestern vs Indiana worth $100M per year?

It wouldn't be a massive deal, it would likely lean heavily towards USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington home games. But there's nothing in place that would negate additional streaming deals with new partners. It wouldn't surprise me if the B1G tried to get something like this as a way to offset the cost of bringing UO and UW in, it would give them a better payday than they'll get in the PAC and give USC and UCLA west coast scheduling partners.

 

[isucy86]

But aren't the Big10's streaming rights already taken up with the current deals? Apple or Amazon would then get the last pick every week. Which, considering some of those Big10 West barn burners last year, would be pretty bad games. Is getting Northwestern vs Indiana worth $100M per year?

There are limited games only on Peacock as part of Big10 deal. An Amazon or Apple deal would be below FOX (BigNoon), CBS(2:30) and NBC (Night), but for the right price FOX could give rights to a streamer ahead of FS1 or BTN games.

The time slot might be a bigger roadblock, it might need to be Friday night so as to not go up against CBS or NBC Saturday games. Last summer there was some talk Amazon wanted Friday night game to compliment their Thursday night NFL game.

 

[ISUTex]

And we're in the corpse of what used to be the Big 12. I'm going to root for KU regardless of what happens, but to think our league is in a good position to add ACC or PAC schools when our league has been the most poached is a little overly optimistic. Seems more like wishful thinking.

Then why is the Big 12 media deal worth a lot more than the Pac 12?

 

[BCClone]

There are limited games only on Peacock as part of Big10 deal. An Amazon or Apple deal would be below FOX (BigNoon), CBS(2:30) and NBC (Night), but for the right price FOX could give rights to a streamer ahead of FS1 or BTN games.

The time slot might be a bigger roadblock, it might need to be Friday night so as to not go up against CBS or NBC Saturday games. Last summer there was some talk Amazon wanted Friday night game to compliment their Thursday night NFL game.

Conferences get much bigger and they will have to go to different night. The MAC and sunbelt may be permanent Tuesday’s or so.

 

[UnbiasedHawk]

You do realize Oregon and Washington have more media rights value that half the current Big10.

Who knows why the Big 10 didn't take OR WA last summer, but there is no way USC & UCLA joined the Big10 to be isolated. Just a matter of time.

If they had enough value to increase everyone’s share they would already be invited. They don’t.

I agree they are more valuable than several current B10 teams, but that is not the issue here.

 

[alarson]

It wouldn't be a massive deal, it would likely lean heavily towards USC, UCLA, Oregon, Washington home games. But there's nothing in place that would negate additional streaming deals with new partners. It wouldn't surprise me if the B1G tried to get something like this as a way to offset the cost of bringing UO and UW in, it would give them a better payday than they'll get in the PAC and give USC and UCLA west coast scheduling partners.

I think that really depends on how the existing media rights deals are written.

If the media deals essentially give 'first picks' for each network (which I believe this is how it goes, allowing each of the partners a certain number of picks and such), covering all 72 big 10 conference games, adding teams would simply give the existing media partners more choices, but leave any new partner at the bottom of the pile after the existing members had made their selections. It isn't worth much for Amazon to pick up the Indiana vs Rutgers type games that no one cares about.

 

[1776]

Kansas may work it's way into the Big10 if NIL continues. I read somewhere that their NIL collective is in the top 20. If they can become average in football their academics are already in line with the Big10. And we all know the Big10 could use their basketball program.

 

[ClonerJams]

Kansas may work it's way into the Big10 if NIL continues. I read somewhere that their NIL collective is in the top 20. If they can become average in football their academics are already in line with the Big10. And we all know the Big10 could use their basketball program.

NIL doesnt matter in any of this. Creighton has a big NIL fund too.