Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[Nolaeer]

Until WVU hires a new coach, I volunteer ALL of WVU games to be streamed.

I cringe at the fact the WVU @ Penn State is a night game that is featured on national broadcast TV. An epic asswhooping for the world to see.

 

[Daserop]

I think this dude is just another Swaim or MHver.

Yep. Everything he mentioned in that tweet is already known information

 

[HFCS]

The SEC will get at least 4 in every year by themselves.

A 12 team playoff wouldn’t be legitimate without that.

Outside of Ohio State the big ten has shown less football strength than acc and big 12 though, the bottom half of the conference has sucked and it’s not like they didn’t already have the most cash. If they are suddenly getting 3-5 every year you know this thing is straight bs.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

A 12 team playoff wouldn’t be legitimate without that.

Outside of Ohio State the big ten has shown less football strength than acc and big 12 though, the bottom half of the conference has sucked and it’s not like they didn’t already have the most cash. If they are suddenly getting 3-5 every year you know this thing is straight bs.

We know you love the SEC you were so adamant that the committee was going to put 2 loss bama in over TCU up until the actual announcement came. Most years the SEC should get 3/4 but there will be years they don’t and that doesn’t make it less legitimate. CFB is cyclical

 

[HouClone]

Think we may actually getting close to seeing the PAC deal if the C4 schools are looking for assurances from the Big12 they won't be put on the streamer to the level we assume the PAC12 media deal will be.

I would tell C4 schools that there are no assurances to be on linear. Take it or leave it.

 

[HFCS]

We know you love the SEC you were so adamant that the committee was going to put 2 loss bama in over TCU up until the actual announcement came. Most years the SEC should get 3/4 but there will be years they don’t and that doesn’t make it less legitimate. CFB is cyclical

You think most years the SEC only deserves 2 or 3 of the top 12 teams? With the addition of OU and Texas they have the vast majority of National Championships of the past quarter century. It's basically SEC, Clemson and Ohio State.

Come on.

Advocate for less than 4 SEC teams per year in the 12, but then you're saving spots, not actually picking the 12 strongest teams.

The legit criticism of the SEC is that they have the best conference and sometimes weasel out of actually playing the toughest schedules. There's no denying the strength at the top and it hasn't just been one team like the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 have mostly been represented by the same one school. Pac isn't even in this discussion.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

You think most years the SEC only deserves 2 or 3 of the top 12 teams? With the addition of OU and Texas they have the vast majority of National Championships of the past quarter century. It's basically SEC, Clemson and Ohio State.

Come on.

Advocate for less than 4 SEC teams per year in the 12, but then you're saving spots, not actually picking the 12 strongest teams.

The legit criticism of the SEC is that they have the best conference and sometimes weasel out of actually playing the toughest schedules. There's no denying the strength at the top and it hasn't just been one team like the ACC, Big Ten and Big 12 have mostly been represented by the same one school. Pac isn't even in this discussion.

Did you read my post, like at all? I legit say that the SEC will get 3/4 most years. Maybe they get a 5th some years. Also some years others will rise and they will get less then 4.

Your comment was that it wouldn’t be “legitimate” without 4 in every year and that is just such a recency bias and completely false. Georgia has been the most dominate team the past two seasons but outside of that they only have one natty in school history and it’s over 40 years ago. Before bama started this unparalleled run with Saban they had 1 natty in the 30 years before that. Just because a team is on top right now doesn’t mean they stay up there.

 

[theshadow]

The SEC only had one top-12 team as recently as 2016. It just happened to be Alabama.

12-team playoff qualifiers in 2016, using the new format:
Big Ten (4) - Ohio State, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin
Pac-12 (3) - Washington, USC, Colorado
ACC (2) - Clemson, FSU
SEC (1) - Alabama
Big 12 (1) - Oklahoma
G5 - Western Michigan

 

[HFCS]

Did you read my post, like at all? I legit say that the SEC will get 3/4 most years. Maybe they get a 5th some years. Also some years others will rise and they will get less then 4.

Your comment was that it wouldn’t be “legitimate” without 4 in every year and that is just such a recency bias and completely false. Georgia has been the most dominate team the past two seasons but outside of that they only have one natty in school history and it’s over 40 years ago. Before bama started this unparalleled run with Saban they had 1 natty in the 30 years before that. Just because a team is on top right now doesn’t mean they stay up there.

The years the SEC deserves just 1-3 of the 12 team field would be an outlier compared to the past quarter century and it's hard to see how adding Texas, OU, NIL and unlimited media money is going to weaken them. I didn't mean to say it was IMPOSSIBLE, but it'd be an outlier and we're trending toward more SEC dominance rather than less, a big reason is the other unlimited money conference can't hang with them.

My point is that people crying about 4/5 SEC teams in a 12 team bracket should look at the data. That's what the results bear out very often, probably most years. I'm guessing 4 is the average, some 3, some 5.

Personally I'd be more interested in watching the old 5/6 power conferences get a single auto bid to an 8 team bracket, a G5 get a bid, and one at large that would usually deservedly be an SEC team. In that scenario I'd watch the SEC CCG the same as a National Championship semi final, then I'd watch the playoff the same way I watch march madness knowing a lot of years another conference champ or the G5 is a true cinderella. That's me wanting to create compelling TV, not just max out dollars for the Big Ten and SEC which is the world we live in going forward.

In that scenario every CCG is riveting to me so it's effectively a 16 team bracket with lots of teams from across the nation. As it is, I'm not really that invested in these CCGs and the times they are rematches it seems kind of weird that they happen at all.

 

[HFCS]

The SEC only had one top-12 team as recently as 2016. It just happened to be Alabama.

12-team playoff qualifiers in 2016, using the new format:
Big Ten (4) - Ohio State, PSU, Michigan, Wisconsin
Pac-12 (3) - Washington, USC, Colorado
ACC (2) - Clemson, FSU
SEC (1) - Alabama
Big 12 (1) - Oklahoma
G5 - Western Michigan

Quick look at Sagarin that year:
2 Alabama
7 LSU
6 Oklahoma

So worst recent year we can find...a mainstream computer ranking has 3/7 of the top 7.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

Quick look at Sagarin that year:
2 Alabama
7 LSU
6 Oklahoma

So worst recent year we can find...a mainstream computer ranking has 3/7 of the top 7.

Umm if you’re already counting OUT as being SEC then your argument about the Big12’s strength takes a mighty hit. Also hard to compare since Ok wasn’t playing an SEC schedule that year.

 

[theshadow]

Quick look at Sagarin that year:
2 Alabama
7 LSU
6 Oklahoma

So worst recent year we can find...a mainstream computer ranking has 3/7 of the top 7.

A mainstream computer ranking that has zero bearing on the CFP.

Check out my other recent post detailing 2017-22, CFP/NY6 participation vs. Playoff participation. 58 of the 60 participants are the same. Anyone expecting seismic changes may be disappointed.

 

[HFCS]

Umm if you’re already counting OUT as being SEC then your argument about the Big12’s strength takes a mighty hit. Also hard to compare since Ok wasn’t playing an SEC schedule that year.

I didn't make any argument about Big 12's strength.

Unless you mistakenly think the Big Ten minus Ohio State has done better in the playoff than the Big 12 minus OU. Hint: they haven't and there's head to head data of the one single game in question.

My point is the people in hysterics that the new SEC would get 4/5 teams are being irrational...they will most years deserve 4/5 teams using all the rational data we have. You may not like it, I don't like it, but it's reality.

 

[HFCS]

A mainstream computer ranking that has zero bearing on the CFP.

Check out my other recent post detailing 2017-22, CFP/NY6 participation vs. Playoff participation. 58 of the 60 participants are the same. Anyone expecting seismic changes may be disappointed.

I'm not expecting a seismic shift. 4 SEC teams in top 12 (especially including OU/Texas) is very normal boring reality stuff.

We don't have to like it, but it is what it is.

There are two paths for a 12 team playoff...you have 8-9ish auto bids and no one conference will get a ton of at large bids, or you have 5-6ish autobids and the SEC is going to deserve lots of at large bids. Doesn't matter what polling you look at.

I always default to computer rankings in any of these discussions because they often involve looking at more than 25 teams and SOS rankings anyway. I also think the coaches/AP poll often ridiculously inflates Big Ten teams in both major sports so it's a good check on that especially in basketball. Computer models can be off, especially football in 2020, but it's a more random sort of "off".

 

[FriendlySpartan]

I didn't make any argument about Big 12's strength.

Unless you mistakenly think the Big Ten minus Ohio State has done better in the playoff than the Big 12 minus OU. Hint: they haven't and there's head to head data of the one single game in question.

My point is the people in hysterics that the new SEC would get 4/5 teams are being irrational...they will most years deserve 4/5 teams using all the rational data we have. You may not like it, I don't like it, but it's reality.

I think that number is closer to 3/4 most years but agree with you that anyone that says differently hasn’t been paying attention. Honestly most years you will be able to pencil in around 7/8 teams before the season even starts.

 

[HFCS]

I think that number is closer to 3/4 most years but agree with you that anyone that says differently hasn’t been paying attention. Honestly most years you will be able to pencil in around 7/8 teams before the season even starts.

That's why I really hope it stays at 12.

At 16 some programs could really mail it in and make the playoff. You could see any of these top 5 powers really having an off year full of mistakes and still come in around 15-16.

A big part of our argument depends on if OU stays OU. Their "normal" year has been coming in ranked 4th or 5th for quite a while. In that scenario 4/5 top 12 teams for SEC is definitely normal. Texas is more of a wild card but who knows. Also how will human voting polls react to these teams tagging losses on each other where a computer poll might like a close loss vs quality opposition.

 

[Acylum]

If a single conference is getting 4 or 5 teams in the CFP there is no need to have a 12 team playoff. The conference schedule has already separated the wheat from the chaff.

 

[FriendlySpartan]

If a single conference is getting 4 or 5 teams in the CFP there is no need to have a 12 team playoff. The conference schedule has already separated the wheat from the chaff.

That’s like saying if a conference got 4/5 teams ranked as 3 seeds or better they should win the tourney. Matchups matter, injuries matter, playing the game actually matters.

 

[Gunnerclone]

I would tell C4 schools that there are no assurances to be on linear. Take it or leave it.

Yep. Call that obvious bluff.

 

[Acylum]

That’s like saying if a conference got 4/5 teams ranked as 3 seeds or better they should win the tourney. Matchups matter, injuries matter, playing the game actually matters.

Yeah you completely lost me with that analogy.