Throwing **** against the wall see waht sticks. Not much really. Basically bring in independants and give them their share minus an administration fee. If Ohio State is worth 85 Million to the networks give them 80 million - the 5 million admin fee. OHST is independant for football and a league member for all other sports. Similer to the ND ACC relationship but they woiuld be members of B12 for football as well. Big 12 would benfit due scheduling big games. Again throughing stuff on the wall.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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Wish I could give an insanely creative emote because the idea of stealing away Ohio State for less money then they would be making in a couple years to move over to the Big12 is some pac12 levels of creativity lol.
Love throwing stuff at the wall though!
Agree about playing a special agreement with Big12/ACC, but it's not dumb to postulate that say Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Notre Dame, and USC go independent knowing that's the four game core of the schedule every season.
It'll happen some day in some form unless there's some radical change to current trajectory.
Indiana/Purdue/Illinois/Rutgers/Maryland/Nebraska/NW aren't some special prize compared to most Big 12/ACC/Pac schools. We're on a current trajectory where those programs all get dumped some day and since conferences don't kick members out it'll be a group going independent in a big way or a group leaving to form a new conference.
I think 8-10 teams from Big Ten and SEC forming a smaller conference or agreement of independents and ditching the dead weight makes more sense than this 30 team superleague that includes Northwestern getting an equal cut when there aren't even any NW fans in Chicago. I say dead weight lovingly because it's how about 50 P6 programs have been referred to for 15 years now.
I guess the question is whether Ohio State is worth more than what they’re getting now with the big ten and by how much? His number was just for talking point sake. I don’t think it works for anybody really in any case.
Michigan is never leaving the big ten. I know I’ve said this ad nauseam but the president, who you know actually makes these decisions, would never make that choice. ND is already independent and the LA schools could do anything but Michigan would never move and OSU won’t leave the conference without Michigan.
No, but their FB program might. I still think a superleague "rapture" is what the tv money wants, and it will be hard to resist that.
FB program isn’t going anywhere unless there is a major Armageddon. Again that decision is in the hands of the president and whoever it is (in this hypothetical scenario) isn’t making that choice. I get that people don’t believe me but if you asked other Michigan alums I’m very confident they would say the same.
50 years from now if Ohio State and NW are still getting the exact same media money it means college football has fallen off the map in popularity for one reason or another (which is very possible for various reasons).
Big 12 fans are like war vets with this stuff. Maybe we have a little shell shock but we can also see it coming by this point. We had our turn, pac 12 in middle of its turn, ACC is up next very soon. After that it's the Purdue, NW and Vanderbilts of the world. It won't just stop with happy sharing.
It's the short term pay day that will weaken the product in the long run.
60-70 teams in conferences of similar strength/visibility in nearly every local market of the country along with alumni ties that feel more like family than fandom was the strength of college football. They were just dumb to not expand the playoff in those days. Long term the sport would have been stronger keeping the 5-6 major regional conferences and slowly promoting the best G5 teams, that maximizes total interest and revenue, but short term profits of the few dominate so many business decisions.
A 10-30 team minor league pro football outfit with huge regions of the country not included is dramatically less interesting to me. If that's where it's headed college football is definitely past it's prime. Some might argue it already is but it definitely would be at that point.
Wait sorry back to Canzano on that podcast. The real doozy was when he was talking about adding San Diego State and SMU. He actually said, and I quote, "SMU is on par with USC, so swapping them for losing the Trojans solves that problem." Excuse me? In what motherfucking world is SMU and USC in the same sentence as far as an athletic value?
If that was the case, the Big 12, and literally any other conference including the Pac-12, would have added the Mustangs years ago.
If that was the case, the Big 12, and literally any other conference including the Pac-12, would have added the Mustangs years ago.
I agree with all of that except for regularly promoting the G5. Overtime that just dilutes the product. You get a good one every once in awhile but overall meh.
Not necessarily. Simply because the viewing audience is consistently growing over time. The challenge, imo, to sustain interest is the carrot at the front (ie CFP). Properly promoted the 'opportunity' for 'league' championships sustains viewership. The more balanced the league, the longer the seasonal appeal (=more seasonal viewership). That is, of course, if the CFP is 'automatically' in play for the league champion and possibly runner-up.
Again, another confusing discussion is this 'super' league. Let's not kid ourselves. The 'haves' will also die if there aren't enough 'have nots'. And I'm sure some statistician can determine the ratio. I'm guessing the max is 1/3, 2/3. I think the SEC will be a model going forward. By including OUT, we'll begin to see if the egos of the elite in that league can sustain 'losing' more than they're normally used to. The B1G is closing that same gap with the USC/UCLA add.
Using the NFL as a better example, you can see 'parity' is key to long term success. Hence the draft, salary caps, etc.
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IMHO the way for college football to actually grow was something like Utah joining Pac 12, TCU joining Big 12. BYU probably should have joined Big 12 long ago. Especially in a case like Utah/BYU where a state had no power conference team but a fast growing population. For a while the MWC was improving so fast that it was growing the sport in that region.
I'm pretty skeptical that something like USC/UCLA to Big Ten is actually growing college football. It’s the first move that could effectively demote teams that have been in a major conference for close to a century.
“power 2” if it really happens is going to include less regions states and cities than “power 6” did.
The media exposure article from yesterday just reinforces my belief that the “Power 2” scenario is inevitable. I’d guess in 8-10 years ISU won’t be playing for the same trophy as the current b1g and SEC schools, most of whom owe their affiliations to nothing more than 100 year old dumb luck.
In a LOT of business it isn’t really about maxing out total profit or prosperity over a long time frame. It’s about maxing out profit for a small few for just the immediate future.
I would expect OSU, Mich, USC are worth considerably more than the Big10 per school payout of around $63M. With a TV rights value in the $125M a year range. Whereas a school like Iowa might have a $40M value and schools like Rutgers and Northwestern a TV rights value around $20M. The Big10 and most conferences would have school media values along a skewed distribution curve with a pretty wide deviation.
If we looked at the Big12, I would think the curve is more normal with a pretty tight distribution. The most valuable school in the Big12 is probably in the $40's and the lowest schools in the high teens.
And having the vast amount of the major media writers in their area who propped them up also.
Don't worry. The cream of both P2 will leave the rest behind in some format, the dumb luck will run out. Superleague is coming.
Only way it doesn't happen, imho, is if the P5 (or whatever is left of the major conferences) band together to create a new variant of NCAA just for football -- maybe spurred on by paying players, NIL, needing anticompetitive immunity and thus a players union, etc. But there is so much "me first" its hard to imagine the SEC or B1G offering to share/help the others rather than press their advantage.
I know Sparty will say "they would never leave" but if the Superleague suddenly was paying $300M per team per year, and the B1G contract was only $80M, is it impossible to imagine OSU, PSU, even UM doing that? IMHO USCLA have proved everyone can be bought.
That said, I HOPE I am dead wrong, and a new NCAA-type body is formed so CFB can be re-invented to manage the NIL and players getting paid, while maintaining competitive balance, the nationwide yet regional relevance, and the traditions that make fans love it.