Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

I feel the Big12 realignment balloon has lost its air. That there will be no movement from the PAC to our league.

What do you guys think. Is all of this hot air or are we in for a surprise this summer?
We’re just in a holding pattern. It doesn’t change much if the corner schools announced they were leaving the PAC 6 months ago, 3 months ago, or in the next couple of weeks. Might as well stick around and see what the PAC deal ultimately is.

That said, I think they’re getting short on time to wait around for a deal, unless they’re just going to take whatever they can get and a smaller cut of it to subsidize OR and WA.
 
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I think Colorado leaves unless the Pac-12 package surprises financially and in terms of exposure (by being very comparable to the Big 12). They see Deion as their shot to get back to where they used to be in football and they need money immediately to pay him and give him other things he'll want. Even a difference of $3-5m/yr would move the needle there. Also, it feels like he'd much rather be in a conference with Texas schools than Pacific Northwest schools.

Arizona feels like they'll take a little bigger picture/longer term view. They're just waiting to compare actual numbers for a Pac-12 offer versus what the Big 12 can offer. If there's enough of a difference they'll move. If its close enough they'll stay.

All other members probably wouldn't move until things starting falling apart with other schools leaving.
 
I feel the Big12 realignment balloon has lost its air. That there will be no movement from the PAC to our league.

What do you guys think. Is all of this hot air or are we in for a surprise this summer?

Anyone seen a deal? It’s the same as it’s always been. The fact that CU and AZ are STILL saying “depends on the deal” is kind of telling. Have they not seen a deal yet? It kind of sounds like they haven’t seen a deal yet. Or if they have seen a deal, doesn’t seem like it’s very good if that is what they’re saying.
 
Anyone seen a deal? It’s the same as it’s always been. The fact that CU and AZ are STILL saying “depends on the deal” is kind of telling. Have they not seen a deal yet? It kind of sounds like they haven’t seen a deal yet. Or if they have seen a deal, doesn’t seem like it’s very good if that is what they’re saying.
I would think by this point each school has communicated to GK what it will take for them to stay, in terms of dollars and the linear:streaming ratio. And he has yet to secure that deal. I would guess at some point between now and the FB season he takes them a deal and hopes there’s some wiggle room or they were bluffing. I don’t see the point in trying to bluff him though.
 
I feel the Big12 realignment balloon has lost its air. That there will be no movement from the PAC to our league.

What do you guys think. Is all of this hot air or are we in for a surprise this summer?
I don't have a crystal ball and I don't follow it that closely to claim I know what any school is thinking. What I do know, is that if the deal was good enough to keep the PAC together, we'd have heard it by now and the schools would have signed it. My gut says the deal isn't good. It's not terrible, but Kliavkoff is scared and he's holding on to it to the very last minute, to try and pin schools into a corner.

I think with WAOR demanding a greater cut, for the other schools, it's a crippling deal. Obviously Kliavkoff could pull a rabbit out of his ass, but if he had the big "Gotcha" deal in hand, we would know about it. Personally, I will be surprised if at least CU isn't coming to the Big 12 by the end of summer.
 
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I can see Colorado maaaaybe leaving. That $54M shortfall since moving west is pretty stark. Also, supposedly Deion prefers the B12. But in reality, I would bet nobody leaves and the PAC adds a couple G5s.
This is certainly the easiest route to take...safe, less expensive travel due to staying regional, and known teams. The biggest threat to the conference future is Washington and Oregon, not the others...the others will stay if the pay is close to what it is now. If Washington and Oregon are good, the conference will stay together. That's the big if...
 
I would think by this point each school has communicated to GK what it will take for them to stay, in terms of dollars and the linear:streaming ratio. And he has yet to secure that deal. I would guess at some point between now and the FB season he takes them a deal and hopes there’s some wiggle room or they were bluffing. I don’t see the point in trying to bluff him though.
Maybe it has to do with unequal revenue sharing. Colorado and Arizona are leaving the door open to exiting the conference for leverage against an unfavorable deal. Hopefully we’ll know in the next couple weeks.
 
What are the chances BY has a pretty good idea (through his industry connections) of the P12 deal negotiations details? And can feed this info to any P12 schools through back channels?
 
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I don't have a crystal ball and I don't follow it that closely to claim I know what any school is thinking. What I do know, is that if the deal was good enough to keep the PAC together, we'd have heard it by now and the schools would have signed it. My gut says the deal isn't good. It's not terrible, but Kliavkoff is scared and he's holding on to it to the very last minute, to try and pin schools into a corner.

I think with WAOR demanding a greater cut, for the other schools, it's a crippling deal. Obviously Kliavkoff could pull a rabbit out of his ass, but if he had the big "Gotcha" deal in hand, we would know about it. Personally, I will be surprised if at least CU isn't coming to the Big 12 by the end of summer.
But if Yormarck has extended an open invitation to the 4 corner schools with no deadline for response, then the 4 corner schools cannot be trapped into a corner by Kliavkoff can they?

This is why I kind of wish Yormarck would apply some pressure to the 4 corners to make them **** or get off the pot. But there's probably a good reason why he's not doing that.
 
This is certainly the easiest route to take...safe, less expensive travel due to staying regional, and known teams. The biggest threat to the conference future is Washington and Oregon, not the others...the others will stay if the pay is close to what it is now. If Washington and Oregon are good, the conference will stay together. That's the big if...
And apparently the b1g’s tv partners are telling them WA/OR are less than additive. Which is a little surprising. Also, would anybody be shocked if Warren lied to USCLA about adding PAC travel partners down the road? Kevin Warren would never lie would he? I mean what could they do about it anyway?
 
But if Yormarck has extended an open invitation to the 4 corner schools with no deadline for response, then the 4 corner schools cannot be trapped into a corner by Kliavkoff can they?

This is why I kind of wish Yormarck would apply some pressure to the 4 corners to make them **** or get off the pot. But there's probably a good reason why he's not doing that.
I think it's all that Kliavkoff has at this point. Is it a good plan? No, but I do believe he is in desperation mode.

The way the PAC has loved to **** on the Big 12 during all of this, if he had anything close to a viable number, we'd all know about it.
 
Maybe it has to do with unequal revenue sharing. Colorado and Arizona are leaving the door open to exiting the conference for leverage against an unfavorable deal. Hopefully we’ll know in the next couple weeks.
That’s a good point. Especially with the news of the AZ Prez pushing back against the supposed verbal agreement on the GOR.
 
I would think by this point each school has communicated to GK what it will take for them to stay, in terms of dollars and the linear:streaming ratio. And he has yet to secure that deal. I would guess at some point between now and the FB season he takes them a deal and hopes there’s some wiggle room or they were bluffing. I don’t see the point in trying to bluff him though.

I don’t where all the “Looks like PAC is going to stay together now” stuff is coming from right now?

I think the one thing we can all say truthfully is that the PAC is flailing and they’ve done a horrible job with this.

As to the poster that was talking about BY applying pressure (not you), he already dumped all of the pressure dust in the world on the PAC by jumping the line and securing a deal. An actual deal. Signed, sealed delivered. He timed the market as perfectly as possible. The PAC has no chance of doing that now or in the next 12 months.
 
I think it's all that Kliavkoff has at this point. Is it a good plan? No, but I do believe he is in desperation mode.

The way the PAC has loved to **** on the Big 12 during all of this, if he had anything close to a viable number, we'd all know about it.

“I don’t know if we’re going shopping there”

Has Kliavkoff been heard from publicly since that terd came out of his mouth?
 
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I honestly think that nobody except the PAC commish has any clue at all
I think the tv execs are the only ones who know anything right now. They are the ones writing the checks and really the only ones who know if they are willing to pay what it's going to take to keep the PAC together. Everyone has a pretty good idea that it needs to be in the ballpark of the Big 12. Are any of the media conglomerates willing to pay that? Only they know.
 
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What are the chances BY has a pretty good idea (through his industry connections) of the P12 deal negotiations details? And can feed this info to any P12 schools through back channels?
Yormark has a lot of media connections. I'm sure he knows where ESPN/FOX stand with the PAC. Not sure how much he would know about the tech companies involved, but maybe knows them too, the people running the television side of things were hired from the OG media companies.
 
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I don’t where all the “Looks like PAC is going to stay together now” stuff is coming from right now?
Jason Scheer and Josh Neighbors have both trended toward the PAC sticking together narrative in the last week or so I believe. CW somewhat going that direction also.
 
Jason Scheer and Josh Neighbors have both trended toward the PAC sticking together narrative in the last week or so I believe. CW somewhat going that direction also.

That’s what I don’t get. What has changed since last week? Seems like they are just running out of patience.

I don’t see how this dragging on longer and longer really makes any outcome more likely.
 
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