I just don’t like elevating G5 teams to be competing with us now. It what it is at this point, and I hope we don’t live to regret it.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
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The Big 10 has already bailed out one PAC 12 team. Interesting if they vote to bail out No.2.
Pac received the following 2021-2022
ESPN/Fox: $20.8 million each
PacN: $3.3 million
NCAA Tourney, Bowls, etc.: $13 million
Schultz expects flat media revenue. Thus, $24-$27 million upcoming media deal expected.
Reports about $9-$10 million per team for one ESPN game per week. That leaves the rest for CW type on linear and/or streaming.
This probably keeps them together.
Hopefully we don’t take Gonzaga, UCONN, et al as consolation prizes.
Kliavkoff has been negotiating with the media for a year now, but still has not arrived at an acceptable deal. At a certain point, the process changes from negotiating to begging, and I'm guessing that point was reached several months ago.
That point was when Yormark jumped in and agreed to the B12 media deal why the PAC10 was holding out for more. That destroyed their negotiation power they've been trying to get to the B12 since.
And what was great too is the deal knocked down the Pac smugness a notch. After USC / UCLA left and reports of the Big 12 looking at the Pac, a Pac President smirked and said that the Pac has the better markets, better brands, more fans, and that they go to market ahead of the Big 12. Oops.
Yeah, their arrogance put them in this spot. During their negotiation window they weren’t getting the numbers they wanted. And that probably grew after seeing what the Big 10 was going to get. So they decided to go to market to sell to other media companies, and again, aren’t getting the numbers they think they deserve, especially after seeing what the “lowly” Big 12 got.
Bottom line, their arrogance got them to where they are at.
And they celebrated when they heard the Big 12 $31.7 million number. They expected to easily beat this and $40 million is what they envisioned.
“Robbins, the University of Arizona president, said last week he's optimistic the league stays together. But call around to the traditional television partners and those in the industry who know where money flows, and there's still an aura of mystery to how the Pac-12 gets it done.“
www.espn.com
The latest we're hearing on Colorado, the Big 12 and all things realignment
What's going on with the Pac-12 TV deal? Could Colorado head for the Big 12 before they see those numbers? And who might the SEC and Big Ten be interested in next? Pete Thamel has the latest from the industry's power brokers.
Especially Notable this is an ESPN article, the company at the head of negotiating with the Pac10 for 16 months. They are the industry.“Robbins, the University of Arizona president, said last week he's optimistic the league stays together. But call around to the traditional television partners and those in the industry who know where money flows, and there's still an aura of mystery to how the Pac-12 gets it done.“
The latest we're hearing on Colorado, the Big 12 and all things realignment
What's going on with the Pac-12 TV deal? Could Colorado head for the Big 12 before they see those numbers? And who might the SEC and Big Ten be interested in next? Pete Thamel has the latest from the industry's power brokers.
I've been wrong before, but I can't imagine this drags into July. SDSU needs to know by then to avoid a buyout increase and I imagine the Big 12 would need to know around then too in order to start onboarding defectors for 2024. I don't buy the line that time isn't an issue.
Hopefully this is all buttoned up in the next two weeks.
I think you might be overly optimistic on the timeframe. PAC-12 is desperate to reach a benchmark that has taken a year at that point and they’ve essentially had no proof of traction. They need to secure that before they worry about SDSU.
And I don’t think the Big 12 needs that much time to onboard new members for 2024. Patience will win out for them.
Pete Thamel’s article said as much last night. I won’t quote it directly since it’s behind a paywall- but the latest timeframe given by Schulz isn’t exactly something to go by.
Jon Wilner at one point in February:
“if this drags out past Selection Sunday you should be worried.”
“if this drags out past Selection Sunday you should be worried.”
I’m guessing the media companies are going to want to know what schools are in the conference. Or they can just all take reduced shares if they want to add sdsu later I suppose.
ESPN creating negotiating leverage by publishing an article citing "industry sources"? They would never....
The PAC has to be sweating bullets right now. Whatever happens, they have to stay at or above 10 members for '24 if they want to hold a conference title game (kind of nice to have when negotiating a media contract). That means they'll need to backfill if they lose anyone. The problem is, the buyout for MWC goes up from $3M to $16M with less than 1 year's notice, which would mean the deadline to give notice is in 17 days for the '24 season.
At the same time, only 3 schools announced they were moving less than 1 year before joining their new conference when going from a P5 to a P5 - Mizzou, A&M and WV in 2011 (side note, it's debatable if the Big East was still a power conference at that point). Most announcements the past couple of years have been 2+ years out. Clearly, these things take time. Announcing a move today would already be short by recent standards.
I think the PAC is trying to trap whatever members it can. It seems pretty evident that whatever offer they have can't be presented to their members lest some schools take that as their cue to leave. I'm sure everyone that's considering the B12 has a date circled where they either need a PAC deal in place, or they're going to leave.