Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

[BCClone]

IMO ASU and UU both are holding out for Big10 invites. Even if it is a 10% chance.

ASU being awarded AAU status last week gave them another reason to slow play realignment.

I feel like Jason Scheer's tweet reinforces that UA & ASU have different views where they stand in the realignment pecking order.

The SEC and Sankey have been Uber quiet during all the realignment talk over the last year. If Big12 and Big10 are looking to expand time zone reach, at some point the SEC could too. With UT, OU, A&M, Mizzou and Ark in SEC- spreading it's reach into Southwest might make a lot of sense. Heck, even reaching north for KU or ISU might be a flanking move on Big10 in a decade.

So ASU basically took over our AAU membership. I believe they cap membership at 65.

 

[isucy86]

Dennis Dodd tweeted that he anticipates each of the Big 12 teams will receive around $50 million in all-in payout under the new contract and the Pac's new deal is anticipated to pay out around $25 million per team (if that).

ASU can hold onto their pride and refuse to join the Big 12, but it's gonna cost them around $25 million per year.

Apples & Oranges.

The Big12's $50 is media deal of $31.6M + CFP& NCAA Championships

The Pac12 schools should expect similar CFP & NCAA money. So if the Big12 is looking $50M, the Pac12 would be $40M+/-.

But even if it's $10M annually that's a hefty chunk of ASU's budget. The Pac12 announced a couple weeks ago it distributed $37M to schools for 2021/22 fiscal. With inflation and having to keep up with other conferences- it would be tough for any school to budget expenses flat or decrease.

 

[JHUNSY]

Agree or disagree?

 

[cyIclSoneU]

So ASU basically took over our AAU membership. I believe they cap membership at 65.

The AAU is over 70 now with the newest wave. It also added Notre Dame, Miami, USF, GW.

 

[NWICY]

Agree or disagree?

I would disagree but it's not worth arguing about and trying to prove a point either way.

 

[isucy86]

So ASU basically took over our AAU membership. I believe they cap membership at 65.

Not sure about the cap because they added 6 AAU schools.

 

[exCyDing]

Agree or disagree?

Agree. OR has been consistently better in football for quite awhile, but UW has a larger enrollment, alumni base, TV market and better academics.

 

[HFCS]

It’ll be great when ASU and Utah join the Big12 at a reduced rate for 7 years because they held out but Colorado and Arizona come in as full members.

Are we positive a Big 12 invite is there?

I've always thought AZ/CU and Pitt/other when ACC blows up is the best path.

Agreed but I guess the theory is that even if Colorado and Arizona bail, they can add San Diego State and SMU and still have the Oregon/Washington upside and the Cal/Stanford academic connection.

The issue of course is that league makes a lot less money than the B12 (or at least something less), and it’s doomed to crumble if Oregon/Washington get their B1G invites. ASU must believe, should that happen, that they’d be a lock for the B12 then.

Seems like a bad gamble. But it seems that’s the theory behind ASU.

Is it a 100% lock that the Big 12 wants to double up in Utah and Arizona?

Agree or disagree?

I agree having spent some time in PNW. UW is in middle of a massive metro yet has real fan support. Eugene is nice but feels way more like Ames or other Big Eight college towns, just doesn’t seem like a massive market.

 

[Gunnerclone]

You cant guarentee that unless you know the family. And frankly it doesnt matter he makes millions a day, that isnt going away when he dies.

Guy makes millions a day but he’s not smart enough to have people around him to guarantee his legacy when he dies. Seems legit.

 

[RustShack]

IMO ASU and UU both are holding out for Big10 invites. Even if it is a 10% chance.

ASU being awarded AAU status last week gave them another reason to slow play realignment.

I feel like Jason Scheer's tweet reinforces that UA & ASU have different views where they stand in the realignment pecking order.

The SEC and Sankey have been Uber quiet during all the realignment talk over the last year. If Big12 and Big10 are looking to expand time zone reach, at some point the SEC could too. With UT, OU, A&M, Mizzou and Ark in SEC- spreading it's reach into Southwest might make a lot of sense. Heck, even reaching north for KU or ISU might be a flanking move on Big10 in a decade.

This is something I’ve been thinking about a little. B1G and SEC have been matching each other lately, and smartfully so. Matched each other at 14 schools, now at 16 schools. If the B1G ends up adding more schools then the SEC could as well. I don’t think raiding the Big12 is as done as people believe, especially in 10 years when the ACC starts to get raided and obviously there’s going to be some new schools who have risen to the top of the Big12 by then.

 

[RustShack]

Is it a 100% lock that the Big 12 wants to double up in Utah and Arizona?

I’ve never understood why this point keeps getting brought up. What’s it hurt? You realize we are in the Big12 and don’t have the B1G Network right? The B1G Network is literally the only reason the B1G invited the likes of Rutgers and Maryland.

 

[isucy86]

Are we positive a Big 12 invite is there?

I've always thought AZ/CU and Pitt/other when ACC blows up is the best path.


Is it a 100% lock that the Big 12 wants to double up in Utah and Arizona?


I agree having spent some time in PNW. UW is in middle of a massive metro yet has real fan support. Eugene is nice but feels way more like Ames or other Big Eight college towns, just doesn’t seem like a massive market.

I read Jason Scheer's Tweet as there is an order to the realignment process, based on options. Kind of like a chess game.

Move 1: CU to Big12 early June
Move 2: UA to Big12 mid June

That could end realignment for now. If OR/WA stay put, the Pac12 would just backfill with SDSU and SMU

OR
Move 3: Big10- OR&WA to Big10 late June

THEN
Does Big10 stop or add 2 more Pac schools at bargain shares? I would expect ASU and UU will sit tight until they know the Big10 won't come calling.

Move 4: Big10- adds 2 more schools among Stanford, ASU, UU or Cal

OR
If the Big10 stops at OR/WA

Move 4: Big12- adds ASU and UU.

 

[isucy86]

This is something I’ve been thinking about a little. B1G and SEC have been matching each other lately, and smartfully so. Matched each other at 14 schools, now at 16 schools. If the B1G ends up adding more schools then the SEC could as well. I don’t think raiding the Big12 is as done as people believe, especially in 10 years when the ACC starts to get raided and obviously there’s going to be some new schools who have risen to the top of the Big12 by then.

That's why Campbell and to a lesser extent TJ have such critical jobs and ISU needs to make smart investments in FB &MBB over the next decade.

If ISU is a perennial top 25 football team and we grow attendance to 75k, I think we offer the SEC an attractive counter to the Big10's Hawk & Husker presence in the upper Midwest.

 

[werdnamanhill]

That's why Campbell and to a lesser extent TJ have such critical jobs and ISU needs to make smart investments in FB &MBB over the next decade.

If ISU is a perennial top 25 football team and we grow attendance to 75k, I think we offer the SEC an attractive counter to the Big10's Hawk & Husker presence in the upper Midwest.

I like the optimism, I really do. But we aren't that kind of brand. I live in Wisconsin and most people I talk to have no clue what Iowa state is. I get a lot of people thinking that it's the same things as Iowa.

 

[werdnamanhill]

I like the optimism, I really do. But we aren't that kind of brand. I live in Wisconsin and most people I talk to have no clue what Iowa state is. I get a lot of people thinking that it's the same things as Iowa.

Id also estimate that Iowa or Nebbie have at least 3x the fanbase size as us. When I lived in NC I'd see tigerhawks and Ns semi-regularly, and hardly ever saw any ISU gear.

It's all anecdotal I know, but from living outside of Iowa, I think a lot of posters on here have a very inflated view of our brand compared to Iowa

 

[Jkclone15]

I read Jason Scheer's Tweet as there is an order to the realignment process, based on options. Kind of like a chess game.

Move 1: CU to Big12 early June
Move 2: UA to Big12 mid June

That could end realignment for now. If OR/WA stay put, the Pac12 would just backfill with SDSU and SMU

OR
Move 3: Big10- OR&WA to Big10 late June

THEN
Does Big10 stop or add 2 more Pac schools at bargain shares? I would expect ASU and UU will sit tight until they know the Big10 won't come calling.

Move 4: Big10- adds 2 more schools among Stanford, ASU, UU or Cal

OR
If the Big10 stops at OR/WA

Move 4: Big12- adds ASU and UU.

This seems plausible.

 

[alarson]

This is something I’ve been thinking about a little. B1G and SEC have been matching each other lately, and smartfully so. Matched each other at 14 schools, now at 16 schools. If the B1G ends up adding more schools then the SEC could as well. I don’t think raiding the Big12 is as done as people believe, especially in 10 years when the ACC starts to get raided and obviously there’s going to be some new schools who have risen to the top of the Big12 by then.

They aren't just matching each other just to match. They make these deals when it makes financial sense, not just getting larger for the sake of getting larger. No department wants to take lower revenue for the sake of size.

There's no current big 12 school that is going to be financially additive to the current big 10\SEC. Its debatable if there's one in the PAC at this point as Oregon\Washington may not be at that level even.

 

[simply1]

Oregon is only Oregon because of Nike. Washington is Colorado both good 20 to 30 years ago, not much since.

Question is whether Oregon and Nike are embedded at this point culturally. I tend to think they are.

Washington has everything to be a high end program.

 

[simply1]

Are we positive a Big 12 invite is there?

I've always thought AZ/CU and Pitt/other when ACC blows up is the best path.


Is it a 100% lock that the Big 12 wants to double up in Utah and Arizona?


I agree having spent some time in PNW. UW is in middle of a massive metro yet has real fan support. Eugene is nice but feels way more like Ames or other Big Eight college towns, just doesn’t seem like a massive market.

Portland is heavy Ducks fans, and has no pro football.

 

[Kinch]

I would prefer to have the Big 12 pick the low hanging fruit but keep the PAC 12 intact as much as possible. Would the PAC 12 fold if Colorado and Arizona bolted?