Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)

Let's say ESPN wants to make these moves ahead of the 2025 season, basically ending the GOR 11 years early.

Right off the top, ESPN is paying the ACC $2.62B for those 11 years. Assuming they wanted 4 schools to go to the B12 and 4 to the SEC, they'd be paying just those 8 schools ~$2.73B for ESPN's share of those current conference deals for 11 years. They'd owe the B12 ~ $11m/school for 11 years. The SEC would be $51m/school/year. Wow, this is not off to a good start, but then again that's only ~$10m per year, which is really just a rounding error.

But wait, we still have to buy off those 6 schools that got left behind. What's that going to take?

First, ESPN owes them $17m a year for a 11 more years. That's $1.12B. Maybe those schools backfill and ESPN gives the the new and decidedly not improved ACC $10m/ (just for comparison, the AAC's getting ~$7m per year). That's a $7m gap, or $462m ($7m x 6 x 11).

Then there's the CFP money. P conference teams get about $4.8m/yr while G5s get ~$1.5m. Nobody knows what the next deal is going to be, but estimates are for 3-4x. The distribution model will likely change, but let's say an intact ACC would see everyrone's cut go up to $10m and G5s get $3m. There's another $462m our 6 after thoughts would be passing up as a non-power conference.

This is all money these schools will get if they refuse to go along with any negotiations. The only thing that's really negotiable is is the ACC exit fees, which are $120m/school. That would be a total of $960m which the conference is contractually owed and the schools agreed to. Maybe they'd go for 1/3rd or $320m/$53m each?

So, ESPN's paying more for less of what they already own, then they need to chip in another $1.25B or so just to make that happen? Doesn't seem like a good strategy. Yes, they could see some savings from operation efficiencies or increased values, but that's quite a hole to climb out of.
You didn’t respond to the scenario I laid out. Not even close.
 
Wake Forest, Boston College definitely. I'd predict that SEC, Big10 will take 4 each; leaving 7 left for the Big12. Out of those 7, Wake and BC I'd put in to left out column.

The question here is Duke, as I am not sure where they would lean between SEC and Big10; along with if a conference will take an uneven number of schools.

Right now Oregon State and Washington State are in the worst shape. In the future I think you correctly identify Wake and BC.

There was a time Kansas State and Iowa State were viewed to be exactly right where Oregon State and Washington State are. Seems like we dodged our worst case danger zone but it also just feels like eventually somebody is going to get screwed out of big time football. The last time someone truly got demoted it was Cincy, UConn and USF being demoted out of Power 5 and Idaho being demoted out of FBS. But none of those programs were like KState and Iowa State with a century plus of football in a top tier league. I feel like BC has a lot of football history and could be the first one that really gets screwed if ACC totally crumbles, I know nothing of Wake Forest football, I'm guessing they have lack of history like ISU but also a lack of passionate football fans. There's definitely some history with Oregon St and WSU even just with their in state rivalry games.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: helechopper
Top team and top g5 if they are in the top 20 auto bid. fill in the rest with #2 and 3s. Crowning the champ would be just like we do for regular season basketball. Team with best record is champ.

BIGSECACCB12P12G5
MichiganGeorgiaClemsonTCUUSCTulane
Ohio StAlabamaKSUUtah
Penn StTennessee


12%20CFB%20Playoffs.jpg

Why is TCU only 5 seed in this hypothetical if they were ranked 3rd heading into playoff? Is there a rule top 4 have to be a conf champ? Kind of silly given the Pac and ACC were not harder than the B12 to become a champion. Clemson was only ranked 7th and somehow they jump up to #3?

The bye is a pretty big advantage...even though that 3 spot playing Ohio State in first game is a rough draw.
 
When you say not that far off what are you thinking? Can’t be the next 7 years because of the media deal. 7 years from now who knows. That is so long in cfb terms. CCG are huge ratings games though like I said and schools really like them (at least in the big ten) so I don’t know why they would disappear.
After the ACC thing gets figured out I mean. CFP games would replace/ outdraw CCGs I’m thinking.
 
Man. I really didn't think a conference would actually die. I didnt. It's looking like we're staring history in the face

It's possible the 2 or 4 remaining Pac schools will keep Pac name and merge with MWC, but it'll be the MWC conference. The hilarious thing will be the old guys at the Rose Bowl will have to decide if they cherish the Pac conference anymore.

It won't be like B12 surviving and changing all these times and still being something at least somewhat similar.
 
After the ACC thing gets figured out I mean. CFP games would replace/ outdraw CCGs I’m thinking.

It would have been fantastic as a fan when there were 6 major conferences if the CCGs were just round 1 of an 8 team playoff and produced the six auto bids. Effectively it's a 16 team bracket in terms of how many get a shot at a title.

Then you have two open spots for a non power conference team or a really amazing team that didn't win its title game but was 12-1 or 11-2 or something. Obviously ND has their in with those two spots. The fact that the SEC/B12 were way better than Big East back then is balanced out with those two at large spots too.

An 8 team playoff (but really a 16 team style bracket including CCGs) only adding 3 total games compared to what teams played after a CCG and bowl game.

The CCGs would have gotten MASSIVE, drastically bigger and more passionate than what they have been.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Acylum
After the ACC thing gets figured out I mean. CFP games would replace/ outdraw CCGs I’m thinking.
Yep agreed the CFP would out draw but those CCG are big for the networks. After the ACC gets resolved is a decade away and anything is possible that far out.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Acylum
As plenty of others have mentioned OUT couldn’t even get out of their GOR. I don’t get why we are even discussing it when it has been beaten to death. If schools could get out of it they would have.

Not sure how much incentive OU/UT had getting out of the Big12 early once 12 team playoff stalled. If you look back at the timeline:
  1. June 2021 steering group comprised of Thompson (MWC), Bowlsby, Sankey and Swarbrick propose 12 team playoff.
  2. OU/UT announced they were leaving Big12 in July 2021
  3. Fall 2021 the 12 team playoff runs into roadblock
  4. Dec 2022 the 12 team playoff gets approval and will start 2024/25 season
  5. Feb 2023 OU/UT announce they are leaving Big12 early, starting with 2024 season.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: Cloneon
Not sure how much incentive OU/UT had getting out of the Big12 early once 12 team playoff stalled. If you look back at the timeline:
  1. June 2021 steering group comprised of Thompson (MWC), Bowlsby, Sankey and Swarbrick propose 12 team playoff.
  2. OU/UT announced they were leaving Big12 in July 2021
  3. Fall 2021 the 12 team playoff runs into roadblock
  4. Dec 2022 the 12 team playoff gets approval and will start 2024/25 season
  5. Feb 2023 OU/UT announce they are leaving Big12 early, starting with 2024 season.

Texas trended up slightly this year but the idea that they needed to concern themselves with a 4 or 12 team playoff for the past decade is pretty enjoyable to laugh about. For OU it made sense for them to factor that into short term decision making.

I can see the SEC deserving even 4-5 of these 12 spots but I'll be surprised if Texas is top 3 in that conference right away or a 4th/5th best team that has a dominant enough year to get a bid. Their problem isn't money, they already had a full decade where they made more money than any other program every season. The middle/bottom of the SEC is sometimes overrated but they are going to lose more games vs that top half than they did in the Big 12 on an average year.
 
  • Agree
Reactions: FriendlySpartan
Yep agreed the CFP would out draw but those CCG are big for the networks. After the ACC gets resolved is a decade away and anything is possible that far out.
Keep in mind you could be talking about only 3-4 CCGs at that point. OTOH, you have to worry about playing 8 first round CFP games going up against the 800# gorilla that is the NFL.
 
Keep in mind you could be talking about only 3-4 CCGs at that point. OTOH, you have to worry about playing 8 first round CFP games going up against the 800# gorilla that is the NFL.
Yep, also if expansion continues and the conferences go to 20 all the more reason for a championship game
 
I disagree. I’m not sure what the point would be.
Umm to determine the conference champion? When you have that many teams you’re going to have an unbalanced schedule. Just like if Iowa went undefeated in the west you would want them to have to play a championship game because they played no one in the west. Beat two records play in the championship game, winner is the champion. It’s what the big ten will do in 2024 and it just makes sense
 
Umm to determine the conference champion? When you have that many teams you’re going to have an unbalanced schedule. Just like if Iowa went undefeated in the west you would want them to have to play a championship game because they played no one in the west. Beat two records play in the championship game, winner is the champion. It’s what the big ten will do in 2024 and it just makes sense

With that many teams and unbalanced schedules, even a championship game doesn't really do a great job of determining that champion.
 

Help Support Us

Become a patron