Always has been. Conferences and programs make it nearly impossible to shift leagues, so as programs wax or wane it takes weird shifts like this to rebalance the landscape.
Realignment Megathread (All The Moves)
- Thread starter ISUcyclones11
- Start date
Looks a lot like 3 conferences
All I want to do this weekend is eat popcorn and constantly refresh my twitter feed.
This. ISU has been on the bad end of realignment rumors 3 times since 2010. Feels so much better knowing ISU is locked into a solid conference this time and not worried that Texas may or may not destroy the Big 12.
If we are moving toward something like what @Jkclone15 found on Reddit or whatever (and I’m not picking on you jkclone15), then there is really no difference in my mind. That thing is just a gigantic cluster ****. If that, or something similar, were to happen, it’s just big business pulling the wool over your eyes. You and me and everyone else will end up paying for ******** games like Oregon State/Stanford. Nobody gives a rats ass about games like that, so if we end up in a “conference” or some crap alliance, I’ll be pissed when Iowa State gets an even smaller payout or my bill increases because someone has to pay for Cal/Washington State.
Let's say ESPN wants to make these moves ahead of the 2025 season, basically ending the GOR 11 years early.
Right off the top, ESPN is paying the ACC $2.62B for those 11 years. Assuming they wanted 4 schools to go to the B12 and 4 to the SEC, they'd be paying just those 8 schools ~$2.73B for ESPN's share of those current conference deals for 11 years. They'd owe the B12 ~ $11m/school for 11 years. The SEC would be $51m/school/year. Wow, this is not off to a good start, but then again that's only ~$10m per year, which is really just a rounding error.
But wait, we still have to buy off those 6 schools that got left behind. What's that going to take?
First, ESPN owes them $17m a year for a 11 more years. That's $1.12B. Maybe those schools backfill and ESPN gives the the new and decidedly not improved ACC $10m/ (just for comparison, the AAC's getting ~$7m per year). That's a $7m gap, or $462m ($7m x 6 x 11).
Then there's the CFP money. P conference teams get about $4.8m/yr while G5s get ~$1.5m. Nobody knows what the next deal is going to be, but estimates are for 3-4x. The distribution model will likely change, but let's say an intact ACC would see everyrone's cut go up to $10m and G5s get $3m. There's another $462m our 6 after thoughts would be passing up as a non-power conference.
This is all money these schools will get if they refuse to go along with any negotiations. The only thing that's really negotiable is is the ACC exit fees, which are $120m/school. That would be a total of $960m which the conference is contractually owed and the schools agreed to. Maybe they'd go for 1/3rd or $320m/$53m each?
So, ESPN's paying more for less of what they already own, then they need to chip in another $1.25B or so just to make that happen? Doesn't seem like a good strategy. Yes, they could see some savings from operation efficiencies or increased values, but that's quite a hole to climb out of.
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At some point even the lowe end ACC will figure that there deal is so bad it's time to take a chance and vote to break the gor. Who in ACC would be left dangling?
Wake Forest, Boston College definitely. I'd predict that SEC, Big10 will take 4 each; leaving 7 left for the Big12. Out of those 7, Wake and BC I'd put in to left out column.
The question here is Duke, as I am not sure where they would lean between SEC and Big10; along with if a conference will take an uneven number of schools.
They might be able to hold it together for 5 years or so, but the ACC is going to have to sit through ANOTHER round of rights fees going up for the Big 10 and SEC. At that point, paying off a GOR isn't probably going to be an issue.
Not going back to quote everyone after finally catching up. But I doubt we see divisions or pods, and we aren’t taking schools like Oregon/Washington State or SDSU. No one has even scheduling anymore, the Big12 was the only conference that did and that’s gone now. Not necessarily a bad thing in the grand scheme(we all liked round robin, but it hurts you when no one else does it), you can get some more highly ranked teams that way.
After expansion we will have protected rivals and the top two conference records will play in the championship game.
UCF and West Virginia will be on a bit of an island for now, but it will fill out better when the ACC gets raided. Plus it’s not like UCF and Utah will play each other every year.
After expansion we will have protected rivals and the top two conference records will play in the championship game.
UCF and West Virginia will be on a bit of an island for now, but it will fill out better when the ACC gets raided. Plus it’s not like UCF and Utah will play each other every year.
Top team and top g5 if they are in the top 20 auto bid. fill in the rest with #2 and 3s. Crowning the champ would be just like we do for regular season basketball. Team with best record is champ.
| BIG | SEC | ACC | B12 | P12 | G5 |
| Michigan | Georgia | Clemson | TCU | USC | Tulane |
| Ohio St | Alabama | KSU | Utah | ||
| Penn St | Tennessee |
CCG are huge ratings games, they are never going away.
I don’t think Wake Forest or Boston College make the cut. Louisville’s AD is a dumpster fire inside of a tire fire, I’m not sure the B12 would want to take that on. I don’t think GA Tech or Syracuse are a fit for the B12’s model. Duke, but probably BB only if the B12 goes that way.
They thing is, these schools would also miss out on CFP money if they end up outside of a P conference in addition to make closer to what the AAC makes in tv money than the ACC. This isn’t really a “**** it, what’s the worst that could happen?” situation.
I don’t know. I don’t think we’re that far off from 12 game all conference games seasons and a 16 team CFP. Which would be the death knell for a lot of FCS programs unfortunately. Point being, not sure what purpose CCGs serve at that point.
The ACCs TV ratings are all over the place. I saw a chart the other day that showed their ratings. I was surprised by a few things, not so by others.
This brings to the question how much ratings matter. What I noticed, and that stuck out.
Ratings wise:
Clemson is way out ahead of everyone else.
Louisville is way higher than expected. 2nd or 3rd I think.
NC is way lower than expected, close to bottom.
Duke is absolutely terrible. No one watches Duke FB, way below everyone.
I think the other big question is how much AAU actually means to the B10 in this. Because a couple major contenders for the B10 are not AAU. And if you go only AAU to the B10 you start looking at Duke, GT, NC, UVA, or Pitt to the B10. That would leave FSU and Miami out of the B10, which would surprise me they dont take one of those.
Something like this could very well happen unless the ACC only somehow loses two teams when SEC/Big Ten rummage through. This without Ore/Wash/Miami/Stanford/Cal is actually about the smallest I can see the eventual Big 12 actually.
If ACC loses 3-4 programs they'll be in identical situation Pac is now. Big 12 would have been in same situation if they didn't go first and go aggressive, they did, so B12 is the strongest and one teams will look toward in their lifeboats. There's also some truth that the B/C tier of Big 12 just has more real fans than B/C tier of Pac and ACC.
For a few years it'll be Big 12 and the pac four corners schools...then it'll eventually be something like this. Of course the SEC and Big Ten will have grown to 18-20ish teams just the same after they take their pick.
When you say not that far off what are you thinking? Can’t be the next 7 years because of the media deal. 7 years from now who knows. That is so long in cfb terms. CCG are huge ratings games though like I said and schools really like them (at least in the big ten) so I don’t know why they would disappear.