Are we even a tournament team?
- Thread starter ISUCyclones2015
- Start date
Mississippi State was a 13 back in late 2000's early 2010's. OU did it in the early days of the Big XII which doesn't really count to me.
Georgia pulled off a 14 winning that weird SEC tornado tournament
Georgetown 2 years ago should have for sure been one but the committee pussed out.
I should have been clearer in my original post. I meant to say the 13 and 14 seeds are reserved for AQs, generally from lower-level conferences. I don’t think I have ever seen the committee place an at large team as a 13 or 14 seed.
Otzelberger’s squads seem to falter at the end of the regular season. His last UNLV squad went 4-6 down the stretch and same with our team last year. We are currently on a 2-7 skid and could be 2-9 to close out the regular season. Is it a conditioning issue or do other teams have us scouted?
I think @Jayshellberg question was non-auto bids as 13 or 14, i.e. at-large.
Mississippi State was a 13 in 2009, auto-bid. Georgia won SEC tournament and got 14 (can't remember year). Georgetown 2021 was auto-bid Big East.
You're correct about Oklahoma, at-large 13 seed in 1999.
Not a P6 example, but 2012, BYU and Iona were in First Four on 14 line. (That might have been due to how other late auto bids came about, it's rare to get a First Four that isn't 11 or 12).
Oh, going WAY back, Iowa State got at-large as 13 seed in 1985 (first year of 64-team)
There could be others but those are off the top of head..
EDIT: Didn't mean to respond with "critique" directed at you, just it got me thinking so I had to check (I thought Miss State got at-large bid, too, not auto).
The energy we are expending on the defensive end isn't sustainable over an an entire season without adequate breaks in between games is my only explanation.
Alot of teams play much shorter benches than we do and don't look tired. Either way, someone needs to start questioning TJ on why they've had two 2014 Iowa meltdowns in only 2 years so far. Not a good trend.
How many teams have finished a season going 3-14? I don't care how good your conference is or how many quad wins you have, that's not NCAA material.
I'm not naive saying they 100% won't get in but I think people assuming we will be definitely in are underestimating the weight of such a late season collapse. Ask yourself, right now are we closer to playing like the team that amassed a ton of quad 1 wins, or a team that will be lucky to win 1 game at the NCAAs? Right now there is little reason to believe we will magically start playing better. Especially when you realize it's the 2nd year in a row it's happened.
The committee has repeatedly said, and then shown through selections, that they don't consider ending momentum, good or bad. Always 1-2 teams a year on a 7 game or more losing streak.
That's why people asking you to do research.. Your comment is unwarranted given statistics
So you're literally saying you think early season victories don't hold the same weight as late season woes and that...just isn't true. We also played how many games without key starters...or does that not matter either?
Where metrics fail is disseminating parts from the whole. If you were to judge the season based on a whole, completely disregarding when the wins came, we are in. Conversely give me a similar example when a team with as many quality wins completely imploded to finish the season. I can't think of one offhand so this is fairly I precedented. Losing the last 3 games at home, finishing 3-12 to end the year, would likely have many on the committee questioning our inclusion.
Do we have a better resume than most bubble teams? Sure. Are there any bubble teams playing their worst basketball of the year in epic fashion? I doubt it.
I can't say we are out for sure but I think the recency bias could go a long way and pushing us out. Luckily the strength of the conference in on our side, and might be the ultimate trump card.
Alot of flaws here... Most glaring is claiming we're a "bubble team" and think that's what we should be compared against.
The committee DOES NOT consider late vs early. They've said that many times.
You say metrics fail on part vs whole
.. Which is why they rely on the whole, and not part. They rely (I woyld argue too much) on metrics.
Another way to look at it: we lose out here still 7th in conference. Even the most doggish bracketology has 7 on from b12. Usually it's 8.
Since many don't seem to want to look beyond Iowa State compared to the rest of the teams likely seeded in the 7-12 range. Here are NET rankings and Q1 wins for the teams most likely in the mix. I am not saying if we lose out we aren't gonna drop...of course we are. But our NET will still be top 30. Just because a possibly 17-14 Iowa State team that is on a massive skid is playing truly awful does not mean the committee just says 'you know what...forget their NET and the fact they have more top 25 wins than literally every team in the country and have 4 top ten NET wins...these teams with half the Q1 wins and a worse NET deserve it more than them...forget how tough the Big 12 is too while we're at it...'
Iowa State NET 17; Q1 7
Maryland NET 22; Q1 3
Arkansas NET 15; Q1 3
Providence NET 40; Q1 3
Iowa NET 46; Q1 4
Texas A&M NET 24; Q1 5
Duke NET 30; Q1 3
Missouri NET 52; Q1 5
Michigan State NET 35; Q1 7
Auburn NET 33; Q1 2
Kentucky NET 29; Q1 5
NC State NET 36; Q1 3
Pitt NET 54; Q1 5
Boise State NET 23; Q1 1
Nevada NET 31; Q1 3
Rutgers NET 37; Q1 5
Mississippi State NET 43; Q1 3
USC NET 49; Q1 3
Oklahoma State NET 41; Q1 4
West Virginia NET 27; Q1 4
Memphis NET 39; Q1 2
Iowa State NET 17; Q1 7
Maryland NET 22; Q1 3
Arkansas NET 15; Q1 3
Providence NET 40; Q1 3
Iowa NET 46; Q1 4
Texas A&M NET 24; Q1 5
Duke NET 30; Q1 3
Missouri NET 52; Q1 5
Michigan State NET 35; Q1 7
Auburn NET 33; Q1 2
Kentucky NET 29; Q1 5
NC State NET 36; Q1 3
Pitt NET 54; Q1 5
Boise State NET 23; Q1 1
Nevada NET 31; Q1 3
Rutgers NET 37; Q1 5
Mississippi State NET 43; Q1 3
USC NET 49; Q1 3
Oklahoma State NET 41; Q1 4
West Virginia NET 27; Q1 4
Memphis NET 39; Q1 2
I'm not saying you are wrong, but cite those examples? Who lost 7 games in a row to end the regular season and made it? How many teams have ended 3-12? Admittedly conference strength will be in our favor but this is a rare case of (potential) overwhelming recency bias.
I'm someone who didn't think we would lose to OU today. Just that win would have been enough. But losing 3, potentially 4 home games to the bottom half of the conference and being on a nose dive is bad optically.
I won't direct this at any specific person, since there are several.
There is a difference between "looking/playing like a tournament team" and "having a resume that qualifies for auto-bid."
Yeah, ISU has looked like crud a lot in February - sometimes vs. tournament locks, other times not. Today's game was horrendous. But ISU is going to get an invite. I don't like how it's going, it was more fun being on the 3 line and in contention for conference title.
There is a difference between "looking/playing like a tournament team" and "having a resume that qualifies for auto-bid."
Yeah, ISU has looked like crud a lot in February - sometimes vs. tournament locks, other times not. Today's game was horrendous. But ISU is going to get an invite. I don't like how it's going, it was more fun being on the 3 line and in contention for conference title.
Going into today ISU was a consensus 4 seed
They will drop a seed (at the very most) for any remaining losses. Both Baylor and WVU will be quad one games so probably only losing half a seed for those.
Lost today: drop to 5 seed
Lose to WVU: drop to 5.5 Seed
Lose to Baylor: drop to 6 seed
Lose in Big 12 tourney: drop to 7 seed
I know people are likely just trolling when they say ISU is on the bubble, but you can't go from a 4 seed to a bubble team in 3 games. Especially when almost every game you play is quad 1.
They will drop a seed (at the very most) for any remaining losses. Both Baylor and WVU will be quad one games so probably only losing half a seed for those.
Lost today: drop to 5 seed
Lose to WVU: drop to 5.5 Seed
Lose to Baylor: drop to 6 seed
Lose in Big 12 tourney: drop to 7 seed
I know people are likely just trolling when they say ISU is on the bubble, but you can't go from a 4 seed to a bubble team in 3 games. Especially when almost every game you play is quad 1.
When is the deadline for ordering tickets for the first round of the NIT? We should play at home right?
Last year's team finished 2-1 in its last three games. Sign me up for that again.
In a normal year you would have a bigger point. But with how difficult this league is this year it doesn't really hold up. Last year we went 7-11 not on a longer skid than this would be but we still got in (it was close) but this year we have more wins and the league is more difficult.