2022-2023 MBB computer projections thread

Some CFers will probably still have a hard time coping with a 4 or 5 seed.

Quoting myself to bring a short essay of mine out from behind the premium wall...

(This is about the Shayok season, but I think it applies generally.)

Fran's comment totally went to the head of the fan base. That quote was cited constantly --

THIS IS IT! THIS IS OUR SEASON! WE HAVE THE BEST TEAM IN THE B12! TIME FOR OUR PLACE IN THE SUN!

The reality was more mundane. All Fran's stray comment did was collectively put our expectations all out of alignment. It was a good team with good talent (though its two most-talented players were barely 18 at the start of the season) but nothing overwhelming compared to Baylor and Kansas in terms of talent (all those future NBA picks and players) and Kansas State (Barry Brown, Dean Wade) and Texas Tech (Jarrett Culver, Davide Moretti, Tariq Ownes, Matt Mooney, Norense Odiase, and Brandone Francis) in terms of roster construction/experience. That Texas Tech team was one shot away from winning a national championship against Virginia.

At a high level, I understand our fan base's tendency to build unrealistic expectations so quickly. We're collectively desperate for that *one* transcendent season that fulfills the promise of Iowa State basketball. We want our place in the sun. The crowning achievement of all Johnny did to put the Cyclones into the realm of the respectable, the unfinished Final Four and national championship of the Fizer/Tinsley era, to put the dregs of the McDermott era well behind us, to rectify the cosmic injustice of Niang's foot injury, to redeem all the awful officiating, to fulfill the dreams (never realized) of the Hoiball teams, and, at the time, to be the ones to end Kansas' hated streak of consecutive Big 12 championships (which Kansas State and Texas Tech did that season).

So we're frustrated and desperately want that level of success to redeem all those horrible experiences... and when we start to be able to taste it our brains go wild... and when it almost invariably doesn't quite come, we quickly become frustrated and angry and then things just turn completely toxic.

I just hope the same dynamic doesn't play out with TJ. He's building something special here. But "special" could be a consistent NCAA tournament team, not a national championship. I am afraid that is not going to be enough for some people, and boy oh boy are they going to let you hear about it.
 
  • Like
Reactions: madguy30
Quoting myself to bring a short essay of mine out from behind the premium wall...

(This is about the Shayok season, but I think it applies generally.)

Give me:
-consistent tourney teams.
-generally protect home and make teams hate playing in Hilton.
-occasionally catch lightning and be there at the end to win the conference and/or make a real run in the tourney.

ISU has had one truly all around top 5 natty-winning capable elite team in its history 23 years ago and somehow fans just expect that, and it's bonkers.
 
Give me:
-consistent tourney teams.
-generally protect home and make teams hate playing in Hilton.
-occasionally catch lightning and be there at the end to win the conference and/or make a real run in the tourney.

ISU has had one truly all around top 5 natty-winning capable elite team in its history 23 years ago and somehow fans just expect that, and it's bonkers.

Even during a season with basically ZERO preseason expectations and coming off an insane Sweet 16 run last year. I’ve said it a hundred times, ISU fan is quickly becoming Hawk fan in both FB and BB. Maybe it’s inevitable, but I had higher hopes since we’re such a “grassroots” fan base if that makes sense.
 
The voters are probably just looking at win totals, now, this late in the season. ISU has the least amount of total wins than any other team in the poll. Never mind that they have four wins over teams ranked 14 or higher right now, and seven wins over ranked teams, and no bad losses.

They see 17 wins and think they shouldn't be ranked in the top 20. Thank god the selection committee gets it, and that is all that will matter in three weeks.
 
The voters are probably just looking at win totals, now, this late in the season. ISU has the least amount of total wins than any other team in the poll. Never mind that they have four wins over teams ranked 14 or higher right now, and seven wins over ranked teams, and no bad losses.

They see 17 wins and think they shouldn't be ranked in the top 20. Thank god the selection committee gets it, and that is all that will matter in three weeks.
Yep, and we missed out on a sure W against Omaha (cancelled).
 
I don't think we truly appreciate the value of a healthy Caleb Grill...

Playing around with barttorvik.com,

thru 1/17/2023, we were:
14-3 record (#10 in the country for wins above the bubble)
#10 in the country (#84 offense and #6 defense)
3 point shooting: 35.8% (#79 in the country)
#1 in the country forcing turnovers (28.5/game)
Opponent 3 point shooting: 29.7% (#31)

Big 12 play thru 1/17/2023, we were:
5-1 record (#2 in the country for wins above the bubble)
#7 in the country (#30 offense and #9 defense)
3 point shooting: 41.7% (#25 in the country)
#23 in the country forcing turnovers (23.9/game)
Opponent 3 point shooting: 27.6% (#37)


Since his back injury:
3-6 record (#96 in the country for wins above the bubble)
#25 in the country, (#100 in offense and #11 in defense)
3 point shooting: 30.5% (#302 in the country)
#60 in the country forcing TO's (20.4/game)
Opponent 3 point shooting: 37.1% (#277)
 
I don't think we truly appreciate the value of a healthy Caleb Grill...

Playing around with barttorvik.com,

thru 1/17/2023, we were:
14-3 record (#10 in the country for wins above the bubble)
#10 in the country (#84 offense and #6 defense)
3 point shooting: 35.8% (#79 in the country)
#1 in the country forcing turnovers (28.5/game)
Opponent 3 point shooting: 29.7% (#31)

Big 12 play thru 1/17/2023, we were:
5-1 record (#2 in the country for wins above the bubble)
#7 in the country (#30 offense and #9 defense)
3 point shooting: 41.7% (#25 in the country)
#23 in the country forcing turnovers (23.9/game)
Opponent 3 point shooting: 27.6% (#37)


Since his back injury:
3-6 record (#96 in the country for wins above the bubble)
#25 in the country, (#100 in offense and #11 in defense)
3 point shooting: 30.5% (#302 in the country)
#60 in the country forcing TO's (20.4/game)
Opponent 3 point shooting: 37.1% (#277)

Basically sums it up along with Tamin hitting a bit of a freshman wall. Grill’s shooting ability directly impacts Gabe’s ability to get catch and shoot open looks as well.
 

Help Support Us

Become a patron